thetaOwl

AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $234.11EOD only
Max Pain
$235.00
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.69
1.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.89
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
8
Low premium
P/C OI
0.63
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
AMZN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral to slightly bullish bias. Positive gamma +$104M and spot at max pain $235 support pinning into June 24 expiration. Mixed flow and overhead resistance at $235-$250 cap upside. Normal vol environment.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5. -1 GEX/flow contradict, +1 GEX positive pinning, +1 spot 0.3% from MP, +0.5 VIX tailwind → 6.5.
Supports: Positive gamma, spot near max pain, normal vol.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, resistance $235-$250.
📌Max pain $235 pins spot into expiration.
📊Dealers long gamma +$104M, long delta +101M shares.
⚠️Resistance cluster $235-$250 limits upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal; VIX 18.6, AMZN IV in line with index.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning; GEX +$104M, zero flip proximity.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed; net premium balanced, P/C neutral.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
At; spot ~$235, 0.3% from max pain.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins for June 24,26,29 expiries concentrate near spot.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$228.46$240.08
Pinning into expiration with gamma support.
Next 1 week
$227.43$241.11
Range $227-$241, resistance at $235.
Next 2 weeks
$221.02$247.52
Wider range, no catalyst.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $235 (2026-06-24); $238 (2026-06-26); $235 (2026-06-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $228.46/$240.08; 1w $227.43/$241.11
Support: $221.02
Resistance: $235.00 · $247.52 · $250.00
Structural: Max pain $235 (Jun24,26,29). EM guardrails: 2D $228.46-$240.08, 1W $227.43-$241.11. Support $221.02. Resistance $235, $247.52, $250.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+104.4M

DEX: +101.4M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma +$104M and delta +101M shares. No gamma flip.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AMZN IV near VIX, normal pricing.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to expiration, contango thereafter.

Skew: Put skew steep, but pinning limits actionable vol trades.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$33.8M (net sold, bearish); P/C vol 0.60 call-heavy but large put premiums dominate, driving bearish bias.

Directional prints: 30.9 put 237.5 ITM 2026-06-24 — Massive put buying at 237.5, vol/OI 85; bearish. 59.3 put 240 ITM 2026-06-24 — Aggressive put accumulation at 240, vol/OI 83; bearish.

Unusual: 30.9 put 237.5 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 85, institutional put buying; bearish. 59.3 put 240 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 83, high IV reflects uncertainty; bearish. 11 put 235 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 26, low IV heavy volume; defensive.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break above $240 could trigger short squeeze.
!Drop below $228 puts gamma support at risk.
!Max pain $235 may fail if large flow overwhelms.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-08-21 $215.00/$205.00 put spread
Why now: Sell put credit spread to collect premium with defined risk, using gamma support.
Break below $225 invalidates; earnings gap risk.
Bull call spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-08-21 $250.00/$275.00 call spread
Why now: Call flow and positive gamma support; cap at resistance.
Underlying fails to rally; earnings miss.
Iron condorWeak
Sell 2026-08-21 $215.00/$205.00 put wing and $265.00/$285.00 call wing
Why now: Max pain $235, resistance $250, support $230.
Tail risk from earnings move; manage wings.

Top Plays

#1
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-08-21 $215.00/$205.00 put wing and $265.00/$285.00 call wing
Sells put and call wings to profit from range-bound price between support $230 and resistance $250.
Why this play: Best matches neutral to slightly bullish thesis and mixed flow, capturing max pain $235 with defined risk.
Credit: $4.60-$5.62
Max loss: $14.38
BE: 209.38 / 270.62
Mgmt: Close if AMZN breaks below $225 or above $260.
Traders expecting minimal directional movement and income.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $215.00/$205.00 put spread
Sells put spread below support to collect premium with high probability.
Why this play: Aligns with slightly bullish bias and gamma support, but bearish put flow adds risk.
Credit: $2.14-$2.61
Max loss: $7.39
BE: $212.39
Mgmt: Roll down or close if invalidation level $221 breached.
Traders with slightly bullish outlook and defined risk preference.
#3
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $250.00/$275.00 call spread
Buys call spread targeting $250-$275, but capped by overhead resistance.
Why this play: Least favored: requires breakout above resistance $250, conflicting with bearish flow.
Debit: $4.95-$6.05
Max loss: $6.05
BE: $256.05
Mgmt: Exit if price fails to hold $240.
Aggressive traders seeking leveraged upside on a breakout.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFAMZN near $235 max pain, holding support $221 and resistance $250Sell the 2026-08-21 $215/$205 put wing and $265/$285 call wing iron condor
IFAMZN holds above $221 support with bullish biasSell the 2026-08-21 $215/$205 put credit spread for premium
IFAMZN breaks above $240 resistance with strong momentumBuy the 2026-08-21 $250/$275 bull call spread for leveraged upside
Adjustment Triggers
ADJAMZN breaks below $225 or above $260Close the iron condor for a loss if invalidation occurs
Exit Triggers
EXITAMZN breaches $221 supportClose the put credit spread to limit loss
EXITAMZN fails to hold $240 after entryClose the bull call spread to avoid further loss

Tactical Summary

Neutral to slightly bullish thesis. Max pain $235 gamma support. Resistance $250. Favor iron condor (rank 1) with defined risk. Put credit spread backup; bull call spread aggressive. Watch $221 support and $240 breakout.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.