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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $270.64EOD only

Max Pain

$265.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.83

1.4% from close

Price Gap

-5.64

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.57

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

AMZN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin/mean-reversion to the $250 area; Confidence: 7.5/10 (pre-computed). Primary supportive signals: large positive GEX $+414.9M concentrated at $250/$245 and heavy net premium inflow $813.3M into calls; conflict: max pain hangs much lower ($230→$245 trend) which limits conviction for strong breakout.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5: + GEX pinning $+414.9M and bullish net premium strengthen mean-revert thesis; offset by MP 8.3% below spot and structural call OI wall $265-$300 that caps upside.

Supports: GEX concentrations +$49.4M at $250 and +$37.8M at $245; Net premium +$813.3M concentrated in calls (notably $250/$225/$260).
Conflicts: Max pain cluster at $230-$218 for nearby expiries; gamma flip ~ $200 is distant but structural; VIX 18.36 low reduces premium on selling with little tail buffer.

📌Pinning around $250 ($+49.4M GEX) creating a short-term magnet

📈Heavy institutional call flow at $250 ($129.6M) and $225 ($101.1M) — skewed bullish

⚠️Max pain divergences: $230 short-dated MP vs spot $249.02 — downside latent if flows reverse

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV labeled Normal; Avg IV 43.8% but near-term ATM IV depressed (1d 23.6%, 3d 30.1%, 6d 28.0%) with steep pickup at 17d (47.8%) — favors selling very near-dated vol, buying mid-term skew if directional.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$414.9M concentrated at $250/$245/$240 — dealer hedging will create mean-reversion pressure into those strikes.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: Net premium +$813.3M, P/C volume 0.32 and P/C OI 0.59 show call-dominant demand that supports upside bias but also funds call selling strategies.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $249.02 is above near-dated max pains ($230→$217.5) implying current flows are pushing spot above where option losses would be maximized; that creates tension if flow flips.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX concentration persists across the next two expirations (250/245/240) and MP trend is rising over many expirations, indicating the pinning and bullish flow are likely to persist 2–4 weeks; prefer 30–45 DTE for core trades, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$245.50$252.54

Sustain above $245.50 keeps dealer hedging selling into weakness; break below $245 invalidates short-term pin

Next 1 week

$241.42$256.62

Close above $256.62 would require clearing call OI wall at $265-$300 or fresh flow; break below $241.42 activates larger put clusters

Next 2 weeks

$228.47$269.57

Sustained bid into $269.57 needs material follow-through and rotation into higher strikes; downside below $228.47 exposes max pain mid-$220s

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $230 (2026-04-15); $218 (2026-04-17); $218 (2026-04-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $245.50/$252.54; 1w $241.42/$256.62

Support: $245.00 · $240.00 · $235.00

Resistance: $255.00 · $260.00 · $265.00

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 36,729 (19.7% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall $265-$300 caps sustainable rallies; deep put floor concentrated near $200 forms long-term downside protection for dealers.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+414.9M

DEX: +167.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 36,729 (19.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma concentrated at $250 (+$49.4M) and $245 (+$37.8M) — dealers will buy dips and sell rallies into those levels; if spot moves -2% (~$244) dealer delta buys accelerate support toward $245-$250, while +2% (~$254) reduces hedging and allows controlled upside until $260-$265 OI walls.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 43.8% vs VIX 18.36 — skewed: near-dated IV depressed (1d ATM 23.6%, 3d 30.1%) while 17d+ IV jumps to 47.8% — short near-dated vol, buy mid-dated directional.

Term structure: Compressed at front (1–6d) then a large pick-up at 17d (47.8%) and gradual roll-down to mid-term (45d 37.8%); this creates calendar/diagonal fertile mid-term points.

Skew: Call-heavy flow produced call-rich skew; mispriced opportunity: sell 1–6d elevated call vega into pin while buying 17–45d calls where IV steps up (~+17–20 vol-pt between 6d and 17d).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium strongly bullish +$813.3M concentrated in calls (notably $250 net $109.7M, $225 net $98.5M, $260 net $79.8M).

Directional prints: 30.6 call 250 OTM 2026-04-15 — Large paid call flow at $250 (Top premium flow $129.6M) — could be directional buys or spreads; consistent with bullish flow. 29.4 put 245 OTM 2026-04-15 — Unusual $245 puts vol spike (AMZN260415P00245000 Vol 24,359 OI115) — short-dated hedges or structures protecting call buys.

Unusual: 44.6 call 260 OTM 2026-05-08 — AMZN260508C00260000 big flow (Vol 39,462 OI647) — institutional directional or diagonal leg into higher IV; buy-side likely given higher-dated IV.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip sits near $200 — if liquidation pushes spot toward $200 dealer hedging will unwind and accelerate moves.

!Short-dated expiry cluster (2026-04-15/17) has max pain $230/$217 — expiry pin risk could trigger rapid downside if flow reverses.

!VIX is low (18.36) so selling premium has limited tail protection; a sudden market sell-off would spike IV and hurt short premium.

!Major call OI wall $265-$300 creates resistance; surprise bullish catalysts would need to eat through these layers to extend gains.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $249.02	Capped upside vs call OI walls and significant capital tie-up
Short stock	Weak	Avoid aggressive short given strong GEX pinning and heavy call flow	Dealer buying on dips will work against shorts
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-29 255 call (sell higher-dated call)	Capped at short strike; stock can gap above call OI wall causing assignment
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 245 put or sell 2026-05-29 240/235 put spread	Pin breaks below $240 and short-dated MP exposure
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-08 260 call (directional with IV elevated)	High premium; IV moves can compress; requires upside >260 before expiry
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-17 245/240 put spread (tactical if momentum flips)	Against GEX pinning; expensive if no downside follow-through
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 240/235 put x 255/260 call condor	IV crush small but VIX spike or expiry pin below $240 will blow the put wing
Calendar / diagonal	Strong	Sell near 2026-04-17 250 call, buy 2026-05-29 250 call (sell high near-term IV 29.6 vs buy 45d IV 37.8 → sell 29.6 buy 37.8 = +8.2 vol-pt edge)	Front-week pin movement can force short leg delta; needs stable or modestly higher spot to decay short leg
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 245 call, sell 2026-04-17 255 call (collect front IV, long term upside)	Requires managing early short leg assignment and term-structure directional risk

Top Plays

Sell 240/235 put spread 2026-04-24

Sells premium just below strong dealer support ($240 $240 GEX +$12.6M; $245 pin above) in a positive-GEX, bullish-flow regime; favorable short-dated IV and tight expected move to collect credit.

Credit: $0.40-$0.55

Max loss: $4.60

BE: $239.60

Mgmt: Take profits at 50–70% of max return; cut if price < $235 or VIX > 25

Defined-risk premium collectors comfortable with short-dated pin risk

Sell 250 short-term call / buy 250 45d call (calendar/diagonal)

Sell 2026-04-17 250 call, buy 2026-05-29 250 call

Exploits front-week cheap IV (29.6% short) vs richer 45d IV (37.8%), creating ~+8.2 vol-pt edge while benefiting from pinning at $250 which mops up upside.

Credit: $0.60-$1.20

Max loss: Variable (require margin)

BE: Depends on fill; monitor calendar spread value

Mgmt: Buy back short leg into 60–80% profit or if spot > $255 or VIX > 28

Traders wanting income with a directional tilt and willing to manage front-week gamma

Sell iron condor 2026-04-24 (240/235 put x 255/260 call)

Sell 240/235 put x 255/260 call 2026-04-24

Range trade that aligns with positive GEX pinning between $245-$255 and compressed near-term IV; defined risk and captures call-heavy premium.

Credit: $0.70-$1.20

Max loss: $4.30

BE: Lower ≈239.30 Upper ≈261.30

Mgmt: Take profits at 50% of max credit; widen or hedge if spot breaches $241 or $256

Account managers wanting defined-risk income while spot remains between EM guardrails

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $245.00 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 240/235 put spread 2026-04-24

IFIf spot holds $249.00–$251.00 and front-week 250 call bid remains elevated → Sell 2026-04-17 250 call and buy 2026-05-29 250 call (calendar/diagonal)

IFIf spot rallies to $255.00 and IV term differential remains >7 vol-pts (6d vs 45d) → Initiate iron condor sell 240/235 put x 255/260 call 2026-04-24

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot drops below $241.42 (1w EM lower bound) → Roll short call leg out 1–2 weeks or buy hedging 240 puts (convert to put spread)

ADJIf VIX >25 or IV spike >+10 vol-pts in 1d → Buy back short near-term legs (weeklies) and shift to longer-dated protection (buy 45d puts)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spread P/L reaches 60–70% of max profit → Close trade and remove short-term exposure

EXITIf spot < $235.00 or breaks through $228.47 (2-week lower EM) → Exit short premium, buy protection (long puts) and reduce position size

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short premium/range trades around the $245–$255 pin are favored (multi-week thesis); invalidation below $241.42 (1-week lower EM) shifts to defensive/put-buying. Top plays: 1) sell 240/235 put spread (defined-risk), 2) calendar/diagonal sell 4/17 250 vs buy 5/29 250 (vol-pt edge), 3) 240/235x255/260 iron condor (range capture). Regime favors selling near-term vol and using longer-dated buys for protection or directional exposure.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.