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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $274.00EOD only

Max Pain

$265.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.63

1.3% from close

Price Gap

-9.00

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.57

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 28, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 28, 2026 close

AMZN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet to the $250 pin; confidence base 8.0/10; strongest supports: large bullish net premium (+$231.1M), NTM GEX concentrated at $250 (+$49.1M) creating short-term pinning, and P/C volume/OI skew favoring calls (P/C vol 0.42, P/C OI 0.59). Conflicts: same-day large put prints (notably 4/15 $245 put) introduce protective/hedging flow that dampens pure call-buyer read, and spot sits 3.5% above longer-dated MP which caps sustained upside without fresh flow.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Score arithmetic: baseline 5.0 + GEX/flow alignment +2.0 + GEX pinning +1.0 - spot distance -0.5 + VIX effect +0.5 = 8.0; adjustments are inputs to the 8.0 base (not additional). I am not overriding the mechanical score (confidence_override = null) because the large 4/15 put prints change nuance (qualifies bullish bias to 'bullish-with-hedging') but don't overturn GEX/flow alignment or MP structure.

Supports: Bullish net premium (+$231.1M), NTM GEX concentration at $250/$245/$255, heavy call premium at $250/$230/$260 supporting upside grip.
Conflicts: Spot 3.5% above longer-dated MP and structural call OI wall at $275–$300 which can cap rallies; IV term shows a steep jump into 5/1 (16d) implying event premium/chance of vol pop into late-April events.

📌Pin environment: NTM GEX +$49.1M at $250 creates a strong short-term magnet one tick above spot ($248.50).

🔥Bullish flow: Net premium +$231.1M and heavy call premium centered at $250, $230, $260 — favors selling premium against that pin.

⚠️IV kink: ATM IV jumps to ~47% at 2026-05-01 (16d) — earnings-related event-pricing; be cautious buying vol into that date.

🧭Range: Expected 1-week $241.76–$255.24 — watch $241.76 downside and $255.24 upside for gamma-hedge regime changes.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal IV environment overall (avg IV 43.8%) but with a pronounced short-dated event kink: ATM IV ~28–30% in the next week and ~47% at 2026-05-01 (16d). Lower near-term IV makes short-premium around weekly expiries attractive.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: concentrated positive GEX at $250/$245/$255 means dealer delta hedging will pull price toward $250; flip remains far below at ~$200 so downside convexity is limited unless a large gap occurs.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish: net premium +$231.1M and P/C vol 0.42 indicate call buying; flow sustained across expirations, favoring put sales or call-financed structures.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP: current spot $248.50 is above nearest max pain $240 and short-dated pins cluster at $240–$250; the MP ladder is rising which limits strong bearish cases near-term.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and bullish flow persist across the next few expirations (NTM GEX concentrations and call OI clusters at $250/$260 persist through May), and the upcoming earnings (4/29) create a multi-week structure — prefer 30–45 DTE for core, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$243.43$253.57

2-day bounds $243.43–$253.57; immediate drivers: $250 GEX (+$49.1M) hedging magnet and supportive market/QQQ strength.

Next 1 week

$241.76$255.24

1-week bounds $241.76–$255.24; breach above $255.24 requires incremental call buying past the $275 OI wall; break below $241.76 likely triggers dealer selling toward lower MP at $240/$230.

Next 2 weeks

$228.62$268.38

2-week bounds $228.62–$268.38; a sustained cross above $260/$268.38 would need repricing vs structural call OI at $275–$300; downside break under $228.62 brings gamma flip nearer and dealers may unwind positive GEX.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $240 (2026-04-15); $220 (2026-04-17); $230 (2026-04-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $243.43/$253.57; 1w $241.76/$255.24

Support: $240.00 · $228.62

Resistance: $250.00 · $260.00 · $268.38

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 37,325 (19.5% below spot)

Structural: Structural layers: strong call OI wall at $275$300 (caps rallies) and put floor concentrated at $200; note additional near-term active flow at $245 (large same-day puts, see flow) which functions as a dynamic short-term support/hedge locus.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+413.7M

DEX: +167.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 37,325 (19.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma imbalances: concentrated positive GEX at $250 (+$49.1M), $245 (+$22.1M) and $255 (+$12.2M) implies dealer short-delta as spot moves up (they sell delta on rises toward pins) and buy-delta on dips toward pins — moves ±2% will trigger visible dealer hedging: +2% (~$253.47) increases short-delta near $255 forcing dealers to sell into strength; -2% (~$243.53) pushes hedges toward buying, supporting the downside but keeping price near pins.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AMZN avg IV 43.8% is rich vs VIX 18.17 on absolute basis but appropriate for single-name tech; near-term IV (28–30%) is depressed relative to 16d/30d spikes (~47% at 5/1) so selling weeklies/short-dated premium is attractive while avoiding the 5/1 event window.

Term structure: Steep front-end dip (2–9d ATM IV ~28–30%) then large jump at 16d (47% 5/1) and gradual decline into summer (mid-30s). This reflects event (earnings) pricing into late-April/early-May and supports selling short-dated vol while respecting the 5/1 kink.

Skew: Skew: call-heavy premium and concentrated call OI at $250/$275–$300 create an opportunity to sell defined-risk premium around $250 into low weekly IV; mispriced vol opportunity: sell 4/17–4/24 call credit spreads around the $250 short-dated pin where IV is relatively low but flow is heavy, capturing GEX pin decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium remains bullish (+$231.1M) but with important nuance: same-day large put prints materially increase hedging flow; overall environment is call-biased but contains meaningful protective put buying that can steepen skew intraday.

Directional prints: 6.3 call 250 OTM 2026-04-15 — AMZN260415C00250000 (Vol=102,445 OI=7,745) 1 huge short-dated call volume; could be aggressive buy or complex dealer activity; consistent with pin-amplifying upside pressure. 12.9 put 245 OTM 2026-04-15 — AMZN260415P00245000 (Vol=17,814 OI=5,795) 1 very large 4/15 put print just below spot — likely protective hedging or concentrated sell-of-equity hedges; its size reduces pure call-buy interpretation and increases probability of short-term volatility on any downside probe. 28.4 put 245 OTM 2026-04-17 — AMZN260417P00245000 (Vol=15,891 OI=3,203) 1 follow-up put demand into 4/17, consistent with either protective layering or short-dated put sells; with the large 4/15 print the cleaner read is protective/hedging flow rather than aggressive directional shorting.

Unusual: 14.7 put 250 ITM 2026-04-15 — AMZN260415P00250000 put ITM (Vol=9,823 OI=2,058) 1 significant ITM activity consistent with pin-related adjustments and dealer/professional hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Short-term: gamma pin decay risk into 4/15–4/17 weeklies can create sharp intraday moves if flow flips away from $250.

!Earnings/event: IV jump into 2026-05-01 (ATM ~47%) and earnings 2026-04-29 could produce a vol pop/crush; avoid long-dated single-leg vol buys unless hedged.

!Structural: large call OI wall at $275–$300 can cap rallies and produce heavy dealer re-hedging when approached.

!Macro: broad tech strength (QQQ +1.40%) supports upside, but a sudden market sell-off would force dealers to buy puts and could push price under short-term pins quickly.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $240.00/$235.00 put spread Why now: Bullish net premium, positive NTM GEX at $245 and $250 creates a short-term pin; weeklies/30–45 DTE are attractive prior to earnings but avoid 5/1 IV kink for short-dated sales.	Limited downside to spread width if AMZN gaps below $240/$228 supports.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-17 $250.00/$255.00 call spread Why now: NTM GEX concentrated at $250 and heavy call OI means short calls are paid theta and benefit from pinning; use defined-risk spreads to avoid unlimited upside.	Upside break above $255–$260 can be painful; keep defined width and manage near $255.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-15 $265.00/$290.00 call spread Why now: Multi-week thesis favors 30–45 DTE; buying a call spread captures upside toward $275 while avoiding expensive outright calls around the 16d IV kink.	Limited upside vs cost if rally stalls below $275 OI wall.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-01 $230.00 cash-secured put Why now: Support at $240 and GEX pinning raise probability of assignment near these levels; good for investors wanting to own stock below current price.	Assignment if stock declines below support; capital required to secure puts.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 $215.00/$205.00 put spread Why now: Longer-dated MP trend rising and put OI floor at $200 reduce tail risk for 30–45 DTE short puts; captures elevated mid-term IV.	Market gap below structural supports would stress spread; monitor 220–230 MP levels.
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-05-15 $270.00 call / sell 2026-05-15 $225.00 put Why now: Bullish flow and call demand allow financing upside with put premium; appropriate for traders willing to own stock at lower strikes.	Short puts create assignment risk and directional downside; manage with size and defined risk overlays.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-22 $225.00 put Why now: If pin breaks and dealer hedging flips toward buying protection, long-dated puts capture downside without short-term gamma noise; used as portfolio hedge.	Costly if no large downside; IV crush post-event can reduce long-put value.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-09-18 $305.00 call + sell 2026-04-24 $255.00 call Why now: Structural call OI and multi-week bullish flow support owning long-dated upside while monetizing short-dated theta; suitable for stretched bullish conviction without full stock risk.	Assignment/roll risk on short calls and vega exposure in LEAP leg.

Top Plays

Short $250 call spread into the pin

Sell 2026-04-17 $250.00/$255.00 call spread

Sell a near-term (4/17–4/24) 250/255 call credit spread to harvest pin decay; benefits from dealer hedging toward $250 and the bullish net premium environment reducing risk of violent downside flips.

Why this play: NTM GEX +$49.1M at $250 and heavy call premium create a high-probability short-term edge to sell defined call premium into the pin while IV is comparatively low on weeklies.

Credit: $1.12-$1.36

Max loss: $3.64

BE: $251.36

Mgmt: Close or roll if spot breaches $255 or if open interest flow adds heavy call buying above $255; cut at break-even breach of short strike + width.

Traders wanting high-probability, defined-risk income and willing to manage upside at $255.

Sell $245 puts (credit spread) — weekly tactical play

Sell 2026-04-17 $240.00/$235.00 put spread

Sell the 4/17 or 4/24 245/240 put credit spread to take advantage of bullish net premium and dealer pinning near $250; low short-dated IV improves carry vs buying protection.

Why this play: Short-dated put credits at $245/$240 capture both pinning and short-term theta while keeping defined risk; favorable because P/C volume and OI skew are call-dominant.

Credit: $0.21-$0.25

Max loss: $4.75

BE: $239.75

Mgmt: If spot drops below $241.76 close or roll toward 230/225; if profitable >50% buy back and redeploy into further weeklies or 30–45 DTE put credits.

Accounts seeking short-term premium and willing to take assignment near $240; good for rolling into 30–45 DTE strikes if held.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf AMZN ≤ $250.00 and implied front-week IV remains <= 30% then → initiate sell 250/255 call credit spread exp 2026-04-24 (defined-risk short call) – use width 5 points.

IFIf AMZN ≥ $246.00 and 4/17 open interest at 245 rises >20% then → sell 245/240 put credit spread exp 2026-04-17 (weekly) to capture pin decay.

IFIf IV for 5/1 ATM > 45% and you want long convexity then → buy 16d–37d call spreads (e.g., 255/275 30–45 DTE) rather than outright calls to limit cost.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf AMZN ≥ $255.24 (1-week upper EM) then → buy back short call spreads at $250/255 and consider rolling to 260/265 or convert to calendar by buying 5/22 calls at same strike.

ADJIf AMZN ≤ $241.76 (1-week lower EM) then → close or roll short put spreads (245/240) down to 230/225 DTE 30–45 to reduce assignment risk.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf profit on short call/put spread ≥ 50% of max credit before expiry then → buy to close the spread and redeploy into next weekly against same pin level.

EXITIf spot closes above $275.00 on daily timeframe then → close short call positions and reduce net short premium exposure to avoid hitting the $275–$300 call OI wall.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short-dated defined-risk premium sales around the $250 pin (sell call spreads and put credits) while using 30–45 DTE spreads for core bullish exposure into earnings; invalidation below $241.76 (1-week lower EM) or sustained break above $255.24 (1-week upper EM). Top plays: s2 short 250/255 call spread for tactical income, s1 245/240 put credit for high-probability premium, s5 calendar 250 calls for carrying into the 5/1 event — choose based on risk tolerance (defined-risk sellers vs calendar for vega exposure).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.