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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $249.70EOD only

Max Pain

$220.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.04

1.2% from close

Price Gap

-29.70

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.58

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 16, 2026 close

AMZN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-slight-bearish short-term: dealer gamma concentrated on near-dated calls around $246–$254 is more likely to cap rallies and pull spot back toward max-pain (~$240) than to drive continued upside given spot sits ~13.9% above MP. Over 1–2 weeks, if tape and IV remain calm, mean-reversion to the $240–$250 band is highest-probability; sustained bullish flow or a drop in front-month IV below ~22% would be required to see a clean push above $260.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Positioning: large call OI clustered $246–$254 and sizable dealer GEX create cap risk; front-month IV and tape momentum modulate outcome.

Supports: Concentrated front-month call OI; elevated dealer responsiveness to spot moves; spot > MP.
Conflicts: Positive equity tape could outpace dealer rebalancing and lift price past call clusters.

📌Front-month call OI clustered $246–$254 — pin zone and hedge pressure

⚠️Spot ~13.9% above MP — increases likelihood dealers hedge into rallies, pulling price toward MP

🔎Front-month IV ~24% vs VIX ~22% — not rich; directional call-buy or call-spread only if IV drops <22%

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Front-month IV ~24%, slightly above VIX (~22%) — IV moderate; a front-week IV move ±4pts would change tradeability.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pin/hedge regime — dealer gamma concentrated in near-dated calls ($246–$254); delta-hedging on upticks will cap rallies and push toward those strikes.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net buy-side call flow persists but is concentrated front-month; dealers accumulate short-delta into rallies, creating resistance.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~13.9% above MP; dealer hedging into rallies increases probability of mean-reversion down toward max-pain near $240 rather than supporting further upside.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained front-month call concentration and repeated buy-side flow produce persistent hedge pressure across multiple weekly rolls.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$246.53$254.58

Near-dated gamma around $246–$254 will cap rallies; watch front-week IV moves ±2–3 pts.

Next 1 week

$244.24$256.88

If front-week IV rises >4 pts, dealers may flip hedges and accelerate downside; IV <22% favors recovery.

Next 2 weeks

$231.13$269.98

Sustained bullish flow required to clear $260; otherwise mean-reversion to $240s likely.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $220 (2026-04-17); $240 (2026-04-20); $230 (2026-04-22)

EM guardrails: 2d $246.53/$254.58; 1w $244.24/$256.88

Support: $231.13

Resistance: $260.00 · $269.98 · $275.00

Structural: Max pain cluster ~$240; near-term cap band $246–$254; supports $231 and $220; upside hurdles $260 then $270.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+483.6M

DEX: +170.6M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Front-month GEX large and call-weighted, concentrated at $246–$254 (≈60%+ of call OI); dealers will hedge positive spot moves by selling, creating cap and pull-to-MP dynamics.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Front-month IV ~24% vs VIX ~22% — IV modestly rich but not prohibitive; implies call spreads or directional buys become attractive if IV falls below ~22%.

Term structure: Front-week kinked and call-heavy; front-month > next-month by ~2–3 pts, highlighting near-dated event sensitivity and roll risk.

Skew: Skew concentrated in front-month calls around $246–$254 — opportunity to sell tight call spreads against pin band or buy puts/callbacks if front-week IV >28% or spot breaks below $245.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Very large net premium (366,635,609) with call-skewed flow (P/C vol 0.416, P/C OI 0.587) => overall bullish skew.

Directional prints: 15.2 call 255 OTM 2026-04-17 — Huge same-day 255C (vol 100,923; OI 19,925) consistent with large call buying or spreads—bullish gamma exposure. 26 put 255 ITM 2026-04-17 — Massive same-day 255P (vol 19,505; OI 342; V/OI 57) reads as urgent short-dated put buys—defensive hedges. 19.3 call 255 OTM 2026-04-20 — 4/20 255C (vol 16,527; OI 2,259) follow-through call demand supporting bullish short-term bias.

Unusual: 3.3 put 250 OTM 2026-04-17 — 4/17 250P (vol 32,521; OI 4,782) very high turnover with tiny IV/last—likely pinned-flow or complex spread activity. 48.3 put 255 ITM 2026-05-01 — 5/01 255P (high IV 48.3, V/OI 20.5) suggests longer-dated protective buys or tail insurance. 20 put 250 OTM 2026-04-20 — 4/20 250P (vol 10,118; OI 903) notable short-dated put accumulation—hedge flow reinforcing mixed near-term positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Front-week IV spike >+4 pts causing rapid dealer rebalancing and accelerated downside

!Sustained bullish tape that overwhelms dealer hedges, pushing price >$260

!Earnings/macro shock creating cross-gamma flows and invalidating near-dated positioning

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-15 $275.00/$290.00 call spread Why now: Dealer gamma and call-skew likely cap rallies into the 255–275 area; defined-risk call sale profits if mean-reverts toward 240–250.	Front-week IV spike or heavy bullish flow forcing short calls wide; limited upside if stock gaps > short strike.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-15 $235.00/$220.00 put wing and $270.00/$290.00 call wing Why now: Large call flows concentrate upside risk; balanced wings exploit neutral-to-slight-bearish bias while limiting tail risk around earnings window.	Earnings or IV shock compresses wing pricing or causes gap-through; requires active management if IV spikes.
Bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-15 $330.00/$245.00 put spread Why now: Skew and concentrated call gamma raise downside probability; debit put spread offers asymmetric payoff with capped cost before multi-week horizon.	IV jump increases cost; sharp rally can render spread out-of-the-money. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

May iron condor (neutral income)

Sell 2026-05-15 $235.00/$220.00 put wing and $270.00/$290.00 call wing

Sell 5/15 235/220 put wing and 270/290 call wing to collect premium and profit if AMZN mean-reverts into the 240–255 band.

Why this play: Best expresses neutral-to-slight-bearish view while capping tails around earnings and using call flow as a soft upside cap.

Credit: $5.23-$6.40

Max loss: $13.60

BE: 228.60 / 276.40

Mgmt: Trim or buy wings if spot moves toward a wing by ~50% of max loss or if front-week IV spikes >+4 pts; close before earnings if downside risk rises.

Traders seeking defined risk income over multi-week horizon who prefer balanced exposure into earnings.

May call credit spread (bearish edge)

Sell 2026-05-15 $275.00/$290.00 call spread

Sell 5/15 275/290 call spread to collect premium and benefit if spot reverts toward 240–250 instead of pushing >260.

Why this play: Leverages dealer call gamma that is likely to cap rallies; tighter, cheaper defined-risk bearish play.

Credit: $1.72-$2.11

Max loss: $12.89

BE: $277.11

Mgmt: Buy back or roll lower if spot >260 or if IV collapses below ~22% and trade no longer compensates risk; manage size vs. skew.

Traders wanting a concentrated bearish trade with limited margin and higher theta.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF AMZN spot is between $240–$255 AND front-month ask premium for 5/15 275/290 call spread is within $1.72–$2.11 → THEN sell 4 contracts of the 5/15 275/290 call credit (max risk per spread $1,500; portfolio cap on these spreads $6,000). Target net credit per spread $1.72–$2.11.

IFIF AMZN spot is between $240–$255 AND iron condor mid premium quotes are within $5.23–$6.40 → THEN sell 3 iron condors: 220/235 put wing (buy 220, sell 235) and 270/290 call wing (sell 270, buy 290). Max risk per iron condor $2,000; portfolio cap on these iron condors $6,000. Target collected credit $5.23–$6.40.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF front-week IV spikes by >+4 pts OR an open position’s unrealized loss reaches 25% of that position’s max loss OR spot moves to within 50% of a short wing → THEN reduce contracts by 50% or buy the protective wing: for iron condors buy protective wing when loss ≥25% and fully hedge/close when loss ≥50%; for call credits buy back when loss ≥50% of max or roll down 10–15 strikes if liquidity allows.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF AMZN spot > $260 OR front-month IV collapses below ~22% OR a position reaches profit ≥50% of collected premium OR loss ≥75% of max → THEN close the bearish call-credit or exit/hedge iron condor before earnings; realize profits at ≥50% of max premium.

Tactical Summary

Neutral-to-slight-bearish multi-week. Use defined-risk call credits (4-contract lots) or 3-contract iron condors (220/235 put wing, 270/290 call wing). Target stated credit bands; trim/hedge at 25% loss, close/roll at 50%+, stop large losses at 75%.

Read the Directional analysis for AMZN for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.