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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $248.28EOD only
Max Pain
$240.00
Next expiry Apr 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.70
1.9% from close
Price Gap
-8.28
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
31
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.58
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 20, 2026 close
AMZN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bias: modestly bullish — dealer flow and positive GEX are pinning spot above support near $245, favoring mean drift toward $250–260 absent a vol shock.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base score raised by positive GEX and net long dealer exposure; VIX ~19.5 implies normal vol backdrop; no imminent gamma flip.
Supports: Positive dealer GEX, net buy flow, spot above major support at $245; normal IV reduces chance of violent moves.
Conflicts: Broad market weakness (SPY downside) could push shares through support; put OI exists but is moderate, not overwhelming.
📌Pinning above $245 with GEX +$359M supports slow grind up
🔁Net dealer long exposure encourages hedging that buys dips, limiting sharp drops
⚠️Market tail risk (SPY downside) is primary threat to the pin thesis

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal IV vs VIX ~19.5 — IV not rich enough to expect large vol-driven repricing.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning — dealers net long gamma/GEX positive, anchoring spot near max-pain levels.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish — net premium flow is call-biased; dealers hedge by buying spot on dips.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot sits above max-pain (~$245) implying upside bias while pinned between $245–$254.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained dealer positioning and material GEX magnitude without near-term gamma flip suggest multi-week drift.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$245.89$253.94
Expect hold between ~$246–254 with pin near $245
Next 1 week
$241.96$257.86
Likely test toward $257–260 if market steadies; breach below $242 would weaken thesis
Next 2 weeks
$229.66$270.16
Range widens ~$230–270; upside possible but vulnerable to market selloff

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $245 (2026-04-22); $235 (2026-04-24); $240 (2026-04-27)
EM guardrails: 2d $245.89/$253.94; 1w $241.96/$257.86
Support: $245.00 · $229.66
Resistance: $250.00 · $260.00 · $270.16
Structural: Anchors: $245 support (max pain); resistance cluster $250 then $260; wider cap ~$270.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+359.4M

DEX: +148.8M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX ≈ +$359M; dealers net long (~+148.8M DEX exposure); no near-term gamma flip signaled.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV roughly in line with VIX — not rich; limited edge for aggressive vol-selling given market tail risk.

Term structure: Neutral slope; no sharp event kinks within the next two weeks.

Skew: Moderate skew — sell near-dated calls against bullish drift or buy cheap OTM puts for tail protection.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium shows a large inflow (~182.7M) with overall P/C skew indicating call-dominant activity despite notable put demand.

Directional prints: 26.7 call 255 OTM 2026-04-22 — 52,465 vol into 4/22 255C — aggressive short-dated call buying or call spreads; preferred read: client call buys (bullish). 27.4 put 250 ITM 2026-04-22 — 29,907 vol into 4/22 250P — sizable short-dated put buying, likely protective buys or directional put bets. 27.6 put 252.5 ITM 2026-04-22 — 20,506 vol into 4/22 252.5P — concentrated put flow; read: buyer-initiated puts (short-term downside exposure).

Unusual: 142.3 call 215 ITM 2026-04-22 — 1,089 vol into deep-OTM 4/22 215C with very high IV — lottery/speculative call buys. 32.8 call 262.5 OTM 2026-04-22 — 16,629 vol into 4/22 262.5C — notable short-dated call demand supporting near-term upside interest.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broader market selloff breaking $245 support
!Unexpected earnings/sector news spiking IV
!Moderate concentrated put OI exists; sudden flow reversal could force dealer re-hedging and amplify moves

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-29 $245.00/$220.00 put spread
Why now: Market flow is call-biased and positive GEX supports upside; selling puts collects premium and benefits from drift and theta after 4/29 earnings.
Earnings/sector IV spike or broad market break below $245 could widen losses or force exits.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-05-15 $232.50/$215.00 put spread
Why now: Modestly bullish, dealer call flow and GEX support mean drift; sell downside for edge while limiting tail risk.
Marketwide selloff or IV spike around earnings inflates put side. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-15 $260.00/$277.50 call spread
Why now: Direct bullish exposure aligns with short-dated client call buys and positive GEX while capping cost.
Earnings IV pop or sudden market weakness reduces expected upside and widens slippage.
Cash-secured putModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-15 $237.50 cash-secured put
Why now: Bias modestly bullish; collecting premium near support leverages put demand and dealer positioning.
Concentrated put OI and dealer re-hedging could force larger downside moves.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-05-22 $270.00 call / sell 2026-05-22 $235.00 put
Why now: Directional bullish skew from call buying prints; structure increases upside participation while collecting premium.
Short put exposes to downside if flow flips or IV jumps pre-earnings.
Call diagonalModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-05-08 $265.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $275.00 call
Why now: Exploits rich near-term call demand and term-structure; keeps exposure through earnings with limited directional gamma.
IV repricing across expirations at earnings can hurt calendar value and widen spreads.

Top Plays

#1
Defined bull-call spread (May15 260/277.5)
Buy 2026-05-15 $260.00/$277.50 call spread
Buy 5/15 260/277.5 call spread to capture mean drift toward 260+ with limited cost and defined downside
Why this play: Direct bullish, aligns with short-dated call buys and positive GEX while capping loss
Debit: $4.01-$4.90
Max loss: $4.90
BE: $264.90
Mgmt: Trim or roll higher on strong follow-through; cut if spot closes <245 or IV spikes into earnings
Traders wanting directional upside with limited risk
#2
Put credit spread (5/29 245/220)
Sell 2026-05-29 $245.00/$220.00 put spread
Sell 5/29 245/220 put spread to monetize call-biased flow while limiting tail risk
Why this play: Collects large dealer-driven premium and benefits from theta/GEX-supported drift after earnings
Credit: $6.12-$7.48
Max loss: $17.52
BE: $237.52
Mgmt: Manage if spot approaches 245; buy to close or roll down if sustained weakness or market selloff
Income-focused traders comfortable with multi-week horizon
#3
Call diagonal (sell 5/08 265 / buy 6/18 275)
Sell 2026-05-08 $265.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $275.00 call
Shorter call against longer call to collect near-term premium while retaining upside
Why this play: Exploits rich near-term call demand and term-structure, keeps upside exposure through earnings
Debit: $0.97-$1.18
Max loss: $1.18
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Butterfly or buy back short leg into strong rally; reassess around earnings IV moves
Traders preferring low-cost positive exposure and vega tapering

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF AMZN >= 250 and holding above 245 with no IV spike → THEN buy 2026-05-15 260/277.5 bull-call spread (s2) within 4.01–4.90 debit range
IFIF AMZN >= 245 after earnings (post 2026-04-29) AND NYSE advance/decline ratio > 0.60 → THEN sell 2026-05-29 245/220 put credit spread collecting premium 6.12–7.48
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF AMZN > 260 with strong follow-through (daily close >260 and +3% day) → THEN take profits on 50% of long-call spread at +40% realized P/L; for remaining 50% either (A) widen spread up one long strike and raise short strike by one strike width if same expiry, paying up to 25% of original debit, OR (B) roll to next monthly expiry keeping similar width if premium cost ≤40% of original debit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF AMZN closes < 245 OR IV spikes > 30% intraday vs prior 5-day IV → THEN buy to close all short-put exposure immediately; close remaining bull-call spread if unrealized loss ≥ 30% of paid debit or slippage would exceed 5% of notional

Tactical Summary

Modestly bullish multi-week bias: defined upside via 5/15 260/277.5 bull-call and post-earnings 5/29 245/220 put-credit. Use NYSE A/D >0.60 as breadth confirmation. Take 50% profits at +40%, allow up-to-25% extra debit to roll/widen remaining spread; exit on close <245 or IV jump >30% or loss ≥30% of debit.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.