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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $270.64EOD only
Max Pain
$265.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.83
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-5.64
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.57
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
AMZN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
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You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term upside magnet to $244-$247 area while pinning at $240 supports range-bound behavior; Confidence: 8.0/10.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 from large positive GEX/flow alignment (+$571.4M GEX, net premium +$498.7M), +1 from concentrated pinning at $240; minor offset -0.5 because spot is 3.2% above MP and +0.5 from VIX=19.12.
Supports: Primary: concentrated GEX +$196.6M at $240 and put OI clusters at $235/$232.5; secondary: MP ladder rising (short-term MP $232 → longer-term $245)
Conflicts: Avg IV 41.9% is elevated vs VIX-driven near-term IV dips (2d ATM 26.3% vs 18-19 VIX) which compresses weekly premium; structural call walls $260-$300 cap upside
📌GEX pin at $240 (+$196.6M) is dominant — dealers will hedge toward that level.
📈Net premium +$498.7M with P/C vol 0.51 — institutional flow is call-heavy (bullish flow).
⚠️MP trend rising ($232 → $245 over expirations) — longer-dated pins push upside over weeks.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal: IV term shows very low intraday IV (0d ATM 5.1%) then 2–11d ATM 26–31% and elevated 18–46d IV ~40–47% — implies short-dated option sellers face compressed realized vol then larger forward priced vol.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: strong positive GEX +$571.4M with concentration +$196.6M at $240 — dealers will buy on dips and sell into rallies near $240, creating mean-reversion into that pin.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish: net premium +$498.7M and call-heavy top premium flow (e.g., $190, $220, $250 calls) — tailwind for higher spot or call buying-driven pops.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain (spot $239.89 vs near-term MP $232.50) which suggests short-term magnet toward MP but overall MP is trending higher, supporting gradual drift up.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentration persist across the next several expirations (GEX clusters at $240/$245 and MP trend rising over 20 expirations), so prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$235.45$244.33
2d EM $235.45–$244.33; strong GEX at $240 will dampen moves outside that band; break above $244.33 meets call OI at $245
Next 1 week
$232.19$247.59
1w EM $232.19–$247.59; MP $232.50 below spot but MP trend rising and call flow supports upper bound; close >$247.59 accelerates toward $260 structural wall
Next 2 weeks
$219.94$259.84
2w EM $219.94–$259.84; sustained flows and rising MP can push toward $259.84; break below $232 exposes quicker downside toward $220s

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $232 (2026-04-13); $228 (2026-04-15); $215 (2026-04-17)
EM guardrails: 2d $235.45/$244.33; 1w $232.19/$247.59
Support: $240.00 · $235.00 · $232.50
Resistance: $245.00 · $247.59 · $260.00
Structural: Call OI wall $260–$300 caps rallies; distant put floors $200–$220 support deep weakness and are targets for defensive positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+571.4M

DEX: +151.0M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM gamma concentrated at $240 (+$196.6M) and $245 (+$8.9M) — dealers will buy on dips below $240 and sell into rallies above $240; a ±2% move (~$235–$245) will see hedging flip from delta-buying on dips to delta-selling on rallies, compressing intraday volatility and reinforcing mean reversion.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 41.9% vs VIX 19.12 — term IV is rich versus index vol, especially in 18–46d expirations (ATM ~40–47%), while immediate (2–7d) IV is 26–31% and compressed.

Term structure: Near-term cliff: 0d ATM 5.1% → 2–11d ATM 26–31% then a large jump to 18d ATM 46.8% and mid-term 32–46d ~40% — steep front-to-mid curve provides calendar/diagonal edges.

Skew: Skew: calls carry heavy flow; mispriced vol opportunity: sell near-term 2–11d (ATM ~26–31%) premium into pin while buying 18–46d (ATM ~40–47%) for calendar/diagonal; explicit: sell 4–7d IV ~28% and buy 30–45d IV ~40% to capture ~12 vol-pt term differential.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$498.7M (call-heavy), P/C vol 0.51 and P/C OI 0.60 — institutional call buying dominant.

Directional prints: 3 call 240 OTM 2026-04-13 — AMZN260413C00240000: vol 84,579 vs OI 8,114 (10.4x) — large short-dated call prints; could be buys or dealer/facility activity; consistent with bullish flow. 7.2 put 240 ITM 2026-04-13 — AMZN260413P00240000: vol 8,766 vs OI 838 (10.5x) — heavy intraday activity both sides at $240; paired prints suggest structured hedging rather than pure directional trade.

Unusual: 28.5 put 235 OTM 2026-04-15 — AMZN260415P00235000: vol 7,272 vs OI 714 (10.2x) — notable short-dated put volume, but overall flow remains call-dominant; could be protective buys or cheap puts sold into pin.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip below $235/$232 removes dealer buying and can accelerate slide toward $220s.
!Expiry compression (this week) can create rapid pin shifts — weekly expiries at $232/$227/$215 are active.
!IV re-pricing: 18–46d IV elevated makes buying time expensive; sharp macro risk-off (SPY drop) would invert flow and spike VIX.
!Structural call OI at $260–$300 creates resistance and can trigger dealer selling if breached.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-Weak
Buy AMZN stock
GEX pinning reduces directional edge and ties capital up; risk if price falls < $232 support
Short stockWeak
Avoid — GEX positive and bullish flow make shorting higher-risk
Dealer buying into dips + heavy call flow can fuel squeezes
Covered callModerate
Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 245 call
Caps upside at 245 while collecting elevated mid-term IV; stock drawdowns (<$232) hurt net position
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-04-24 235/230 put spread
Break below $232 exposes larger losses; must manage if MP shifts lower
Long callsModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-04-20 245 call
Front-week IV compression and dealer call supply can cap upside; expensive mid-term IV
Long puts / bear put spreadWeak
Buy 2026-04-24 232.5/227.5 put spread
GEX positive makes significant downside less likely; costly given elevated longer-dated IV
Iron condorModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-04-24 235/230 put x 245/250 call condor
VIX spike or breach of $232 or $250 breaks wings; position benefits from pin at $240 and call-heavy flow
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar)Strong
Sell 2026-05-29 240 call (IV ~40.1%) and buy 2026-04-20 240 call (IV ~28.6%) — reverse calendar (sell long-dated leg)
Roll risk if spot moves >±4%; requires managing term-structure and liquidity when selling longer-dated vega
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-05-29 235 call, sell 2026-04-24 235 call (diagonal)
Requires multi-week bullish drift; consumes capital and vega but aligns with rising MP trend
Protective collarModerate
Own stock + buy 2026-04-24 230 put + sell 2026-04-24 245 call
Cost of protection elevated by mid-term IV; limits upside to near 245

Top Plays

#1
Sell 235/230 put spread 4/24
Sell 2026-04-24 235/230 put spread
Defined-risk short put spread sits just below strong GEX at $240 and inside 1w EM lower bound; benefits from dealer buying into dips and call-dominant flow.
Credit: $0.40-$0.65
Max loss: $4.60
BE: $234.60
Mgmt: Close at 50–70% of max profit or if spot <$232 for 30+ minutes
Traders wanting defined risk premium collection without owning stock
#2
Reverse calendar 240 (sell long-dated, buy near-term)
Sell 2026-05-29 240 call (IV ~40.1%), buy 2026-04-20 240 call (IV ~28.6%) — reverse calendar
Follows rule to sell the higher-IV leg (5/29 IV ~40.1%) and buy lower-IV near-term (4/20 IV ~28.6%); captures ~11–12 vol-pt term differential and benefits from theta as near-term decays into the pin at $240.
Credit: $0.30-$0.80
Max loss: Limited to assignment/roll costs and margin (monitor net position)
BE: Requires stable spot near $240 and no large IV compression of long-dated leg
Mgmt: Take profits at 50–75% of collected credit; buy back short 5/29 if spot moves >$245 or if long-term IV narrows >8 vol pts
Vol sellers who can manage selling longer-dated vega and want structural edge over 30–45 DTE
#3
Iron condor 235/230 put x 245/250 call 4/24
Sell 2026-04-24 235/230 put and sell 245/250 call wings
Captures rich mid-term premium while using pin at $240 and EM bounds ($232–$247) to define wings; wide wings mitigate gamma risk.
Credit: $0.50-$1.20
Max loss: $4.50
BE: Low wing breakevens dependent on collected credit (approx 235 - credit / 230 + credit)
Mgmt: Take profit at 60–70% of max return; tighten or hedge if spot < $232 or > $250
Defined-risk income traders comfortable managing weekly deltas

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot holds $240.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 235/230 put spread 2026-04-24
IFIf spot tags $245.00 and IV compression observed (2d IV near lower bound) → Sell 245/250 call wing as part of iron condor 2026-04-24
IFIf spot drifts to $237.50 and 18–46d IV >40% → Sell 2026-05-29 240 call and buy 2026-04-20 240 call (reverse calendar)
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot > $245.00 and short diagonal/condor short leg delta >0.40 → Roll short near-term calls up one strike or buy back and re-sell a higher strike same expiry
ADJIf spot < $232.50 for 60 minutes → Buy protection: purchase 230 2026-04-24 put or close short put spreads
Exit Triggers
EXITIf VIX spikes >25 and spot <$235.00 → Exit all short premium (close put spreads and condors)
EXITIf trade reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profit and reduce exposure

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: range-bound but slowly bullish into multi-week rising MP with a dominant pin at $240 that favors short-premium and reverse-calendar trades; invalidation: sustained close below $232.50 which removes dealer support. Top plays: sell 235/230 put spread (defined-risk), reverse calendar 240 (term-vol arbitrage), and 235/230/245/250 iron condor for income.
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This directional reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
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