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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $239.89EOD only
Max Pain
$227.50
Next expiry Apr 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.44
1.9% from close
Price Gap
-12.39
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
80
High premium
P/C OI
0.60
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 13, 2026 close
AMZN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term upside magnet to $244-$247 area while pinning at $240 supports range-bound behavior; Confidence: 8.0/10.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 from large positive GEX/flow alignment (+$571.4M GEX, net premium +$498.7M), +1 from concentrated pinning at $240; minor offset -0.5 because spot is 3.2% above MP and +0.5 from VIX=19.12.
Supports: Primary: concentrated GEX +$196.6M at $240 and put OI clusters at $235/$232.5; secondary: MP ladder rising (short-term MP $232 → longer-term $245)
Conflicts: Avg IV 41.9% is elevated vs VIX-driven near-term IV dips (2d ATM 26.3% vs 18-19 VIX) which compresses weekly premium; structural call walls $260-$300 cap upside
📌GEX pin at $240 (+$196.6M) is dominant — dealers will hedge toward that level.
📈Net premium +$498.7M with P/C vol 0.51 — institutional flow is call-heavy (bullish flow).
⚠️MP trend rising ($232 → $245 over expirations) — longer-dated pins push upside over weeks.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal: IV term shows very low intraday IV (0d ATM 5.1%) then 2–11d ATM 26–31% and elevated 18–46d IV ~40–47% — implies short-dated option sellers face compressed realized vol then larger forward priced vol.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: strong positive GEX +$571.4M with concentration +$196.6M at $240 — dealers will buy on dips and sell into rallies near $240, creating mean-reversion into that pin.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish: net premium +$498.7M and call-heavy top premium flow (e.g., $190, $220, $250 calls) — tailwind for higher spot or call buying-driven pops.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain (spot $239.89 vs near-term MP $232.50) which suggests short-term magnet toward MP but overall MP is trending higher, supporting gradual drift up.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentration persist across the next several expirations (GEX clusters at $240/$245 and MP trend rising over 20 expirations), so prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$235.45$244.33
2d EM $235.45–$244.33; strong GEX at $240 will dampen moves outside that band; break above $244.33 meets call OI at $245
Next 1 week
$232.19$247.59
1w EM $232.19–$247.59; MP $232.50 below spot but MP trend rising and call flow supports upper bound; close >$247.59 accelerates toward $260 structural wall
Next 2 weeks
$219.94$259.84
2w EM $219.94–$259.84; sustained flows and rising MP can push toward $259.84; break below $232 exposes quicker downside toward $220s

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $232 (2026-04-13); $228 (2026-04-15); $215 (2026-04-17)
EM guardrails: 2d $235.45/$244.33; 1w $232.19/$247.59
Support: $240.00 · $235.00 · $232.50
Resistance: $245.00 · $247.59 · $260.00
Structural: Call OI wall $260–$300 caps rallies; distant put floors $200–$220 support deep weakness and are targets for defensive positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+571.4M

DEX: +151.0M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM gamma concentrated at $240 (+$196.6M) and $245 (+$8.9M) — dealers will buy on dips below $240 and sell into rallies above $240; a ±2% move (~$235–$245) will see hedging flip from delta-buying on dips to delta-selling on rallies, compressing intraday volatility and reinforcing mean reversion.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 41.9% vs VIX 19.12 — term IV is rich versus index vol, especially in 18–46d expirations (ATM ~40–47%), while immediate (2–7d) IV is 26–31% and compressed.

Term structure: Near-term cliff: 0d ATM 5.1% → 2–11d ATM 26–31% then a large jump to 18d ATM 46.8% and mid-term 32–46d ~40% — steep front-to-mid curve provides calendar/diagonal edges.

Skew: Skew: calls carry heavy flow; mispriced vol opportunity: sell near-term 2–11d (ATM ~26–31%) premium into pin while buying 18–46d (ATM ~40–47%) for calendar/diagonal; explicit: sell 4–7d IV ~28% and buy 30–45d IV ~40% to capture ~12 vol-pt term differential.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$498.7M (call-heavy), P/C vol 0.51 and P/C OI 0.60 — institutional call buying dominant.

Directional prints: 3 call 240 OTM 2026-04-13 — AMZN260413C00240000: vol 84,579 vs OI 8,114 (10.4x) — large short-dated call prints; could be buys or dealer/facility activity; consistent with bullish flow. 7.2 put 240 ITM 2026-04-13 — AMZN260413P00240000: vol 8,766 vs OI 838 (10.5x) — heavy intraday activity both sides at $240; paired prints suggest structured hedging rather than pure directional trade.

Unusual: 28.5 put 235 OTM 2026-04-15 — AMZN260415P00235000: vol 7,272 vs OI 714 (10.2x) — notable short-dated put volume, but overall flow remains call-dominant; could be protective buys or cheap puts sold into pin.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip below $235/$232 removes dealer buying and can accelerate slide toward $220s.
!Expiry compression (this week) can create rapid pin shifts — weekly expiries at $232/$227/$215 are active.
!IV re-pricing: 18–46d IV elevated makes buying time expensive; sharp macro risk-off (SPY drop) would invert flow and spike VIX.
!Structural call OI at $260–$300 creates resistance and can trigger dealer selling if breached.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-WeakBuy AMZN stockGEX pinning reduces directional edge and ties capital up; risk if price falls < $232 support
Short stockWeakAvoid — GEX positive and bullish flow make shorting higher-riskDealer buying into dips + heavy call flow can fuel squeezes
Covered callModerateBuy stock + sell 2026-05-15 245 callCaps upside at 245 while collecting elevated mid-term IV; stock drawdowns (<$232) hurt net position
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-StrongSell 2026-04-24 235/230 put spreadBreak below $232 exposes larger losses; must manage if MP shifts lower
Long callsModerate-WeakBuy 2026-04-20 245 callFront-week IV compression and dealer call supply can cap upside; expensive mid-term IV
Long puts / bear put spreadWeakBuy 2026-04-24 232.5/227.5 put spreadGEX positive makes significant downside less likely; costly given elevated longer-dated IV
Iron condorModerate-StrongSell 2026-04-24 235/230 put x 245/250 call condorVIX spike or breach of $232 or $250 breaks wings; position benefits from pin at $240 and call-heavy flow
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar)StrongSell 2026-05-29 240 call (IV ~40.1%) and buy 2026-04-20 240 call (IV ~28.6%) — reverse calendar (sell long-dated leg)Roll risk if spot moves >±4%; requires managing term-structure and liquidity when selling longer-dated vega
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate-StrongBuy 2026-05-29 235 call, sell 2026-04-24 235 call (diagonal)Requires multi-week bullish drift; consumes capital and vega but aligns with rising MP trend
Protective collarModerateOwn stock + buy 2026-04-24 230 put + sell 2026-04-24 245 callCost of protection elevated by mid-term IV; limits upside to near 245

Top Plays

#1
Sell 235/230 put spread 4/24
Sell 2026-04-24 235/230 put spread
Defined-risk short put spread sits just below strong GEX at $240 and inside 1w EM lower bound; benefits from dealer buying into dips and call-dominant flow.
Credit: $0.40-$0.65
Max loss: $4.60
BE: $234.60
Mgmt: Close at 50–70% of max profit or if spot <$232 for 30+ minutes
Traders wanting defined risk premium collection without owning stock
#2
Reverse calendar 240 (sell long-dated, buy near-term)
Sell 2026-05-29 240 call (IV ~40.1%), buy 2026-04-20 240 call (IV ~28.6%) — reverse calendar
Follows rule to sell the higher-IV leg (5/29 IV ~40.1%) and buy lower-IV near-term (4/20 IV ~28.6%); captures ~11–12 vol-pt term differential and benefits from theta as near-term decays into the pin at $240.
Credit: $0.30-$0.80
Max loss: Limited to assignment/roll costs and margin (monitor net position)
BE: Requires stable spot near $240 and no large IV compression of long-dated leg
Mgmt: Take profits at 50–75% of collected credit; buy back short 5/29 if spot moves >$245 or if long-term IV narrows >8 vol pts
Vol sellers who can manage selling longer-dated vega and want structural edge over 30–45 DTE
#3
Iron condor 235/230 put x 245/250 call 4/24
Sell 2026-04-24 235/230 put and sell 245/250 call wings
Captures rich mid-term premium while using pin at $240 and EM bounds ($232–$247) to define wings; wide wings mitigate gamma risk.
Credit: $0.50-$1.20
Max loss: $4.50
BE: Low wing breakevens dependent on collected credit (approx 235 - credit / 230 + credit)
Mgmt: Take profit at 60–70% of max return; tighten or hedge if spot < $232 or > $250
Defined-risk income traders comfortable managing weekly deltas

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot holds $240.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 235/230 put spread 2026-04-24
IFIf spot tags $245.00 and IV compression observed (2d IV near lower bound) → Sell 245/250 call wing as part of iron condor 2026-04-24
IFIf spot drifts to $237.50 and 18–46d IV >40% → Sell 2026-05-29 240 call and buy 2026-04-20 240 call (reverse calendar)
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot > $245.00 and short diagonal/condor short leg delta >0.40 → Roll short near-term calls up one strike or buy back and re-sell a higher strike same expiry
ADJIf spot < $232.50 for 60 minutes → Buy protection: purchase 230 2026-04-24 put or close short put spreads
Exit Triggers
EXITIf VIX spikes >25 and spot <$235.00 → Exit all short premium (close put spreads and condors)
EXITIf trade reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profit and reduce exposure

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: range-bound but slowly bullish into multi-week rising MP with a dominant pin at $240 that favors short-premium and reverse-calendar trades; invalidation: sustained close below $232.50 which removes dealer support. Top plays: sell 235/230 put spread (defined-risk), reverse calendar 240 (term-vol arbitrage), and 235/230/245/250 iron condor for income.

Read the Directional analysis for AMZN for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.