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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $302.25EOD only
Max Pain
$292.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.44
1.5% from close
Price Gap
-9.75
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
22
Low premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 30, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 30, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/30, 32 days out. IV is significantly elevated for the 5/01 expiration (34.4% vs 30.8% pre and 31.8% post). Historical pattern shows 100% EPS beat rate with consistent upward gaps. Best strategy is a defined-risk short premium play, capitalizing on elevated IV and historical tendency to under-move relative to elevated expectations.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong historical beat rate; +1 clear IV term structure kink at 5/01; -0.5 no explicit earnings date
Most important: IV term structure shows a pronounced kink at 5/01 (34.4%), confirming earnings pricing. Historical beat rate is perfect, but the stock's move may not exceed the elevated expected move.
📅Earnings date inferred from IV kink at 5/01 expiration and EPS estimate. Not explicitly confirmed.
📈Historical EPS beat rate is 100% with a consistent upward gap.
⚡IV for 5/01 expiration has increased from 30.6% to 34.4% since prior report, indicating rising earnings volatility premium.
⚖️Spot ($246.63) is below max pain ($250) with positive GEX, suggesting a mild upward pull is possible into weekly expirations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 33%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$15.2M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $8.1M, P/C 0.81)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 1.3% (spot $246.63 vs MP $250)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (Inferred) (32 days)inferred (IV kink at 5/01, EPS estimate provided)

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (33d): ±$20.15 (8.2%) [$226.48 - $266.78]

IV Setup

Term structure: Pronounced kink at 5/01 expiration (34.4% ATM IV). IV rises from 30.8% (4/02) to 34.4% (5/01), then dips to 31.8% (5/08).

Crush estimate: ~5-6 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~29-30% range.

Skew: Net premium flow negative at ATM ($245, $247.50), indicating put buying pressure near spot. Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $150 Apr '26 PUT with 146.9% IV) suggests tail hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot compute exact % move from provided data, but directional bias is clear.

Directional bias: 4/4 quarters gapped up post-earnings (based on EPS Act > Est).

Key Levels

1Max Pain: ~$250
2Expected Move Bounds: $226.48 - $266.78
3Heavy OI Call Walls: $280, $300
4Spot Support: $245 (high put flow)

Flow Highlights

Large net negative premium at $245 Put (-$2.24M) and $247.50 Put (-$1.82M).

Significant downside protection being bought near current spot, likely hedging into earnings or general market risk.

Strong net positive premium at $130 Call (+$3.54M) and $205 Call (+$2.30M).

Long-dated bullish flow at deep OTM strikes, possibly speculative bets or structured product flows, not directly earnings-related.

Unusual volume in $247.50 and $250 Calls for 3/30 expiry (14-13x OI).

Short-term bullish positioning into week's end, likely unrelated to earnings given the expiry.

Strategies

Short Strangle (Premium Sale)
Sell $225 Put / Sell $270 Call exp 5/01
Credit: $8.50-$10.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $9.50
BE: $215.50
Trigger: Enter 10-14 days before earnings when IV on 5/01 is >34%.
Capitalizes on elevated IV (34.4%) and expected crush. Strikes placed just outside the 8.2% expected move to provide a buffer. Historical 100% beat rate suggests low probability of a catastrophic miss, but the wide range accounts for potential volatility.
Outperforms: AAPL stays between $225 and $270 (a range wider than the EM).
Underperforms: AAPL gaps beyond short strikes ($225 or $270).
Bull Put Spread (Defined Risk Directional)
Sell $235 Put / Buy $230 Put exp 5/01
Credit: $1.80-$2.20
Max loss: $3.20
Max gain: $2.00
BE: $233.20
Trigger: Enter 2-3 weeks before earnings.
Leverages historical upside bias with defined risk. Strike selection is below the lower expected move bound ($226.48) for a margin of safety. Benefits from IV crush and positive theta.
Outperforms: AAPL is flat or up post-earnings (above $233.20).
Underperforms: AAPL gaps down below $233.20.
Put Calendar Spread (Volatility/Theta Play)
Sell $245 Put exp 4/24 (26d) / Buy $245 Put exp 5/01 (33d)
Credit: $1.00-$1.50
Max gain: Credit received
BE: Complex; benefits from accelerated theta decay on short leg and IV crush on long leg post-earnings.
Trigger: Enter 15-20 days before earnings.
Exploits the IV kink. Short near-dated put benefits from high theta and pinning near max pain ($250). Long put captures earnings vol and benefits from crush after the event. High put flow at $245 provides liquidity.
Outperforms: AAPL is near $245 at April expiration, and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: AAPL moves sharply away from $245 before April expiration.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 8.2% expected move is substantial. While history favors upside, a guidance miss could trigger a move beyond the lower bound.
!IV Crush: Estimated 5-6 vol point drop post-earnings. This will significantly erode premium in long option strategies.
!Liquidity: Excellent. AAPL options are highly liquid across all expirations.
!Sizing: With 32 days to earnings, time decay accelerates in the final two weeks. Size short premium positions to withstand a move to the EM edges.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 5/01 expiration as earnings approach—watch for further expansion.
?Flow balance at the $245-$250 strikes for clues on dealer hedging and pinning pressure.
?Any official confirmation of the earnings date (still inferred).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 30, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.