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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $302.25EOD only
Max Pain
$292.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.44
1.5% from close
Price Gap
-9.75
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
22
Low premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 26, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/30, 35 days out. IV is elevated for the 5/01 expiration (30.6% vs 27% pre/post). Historical pattern shows consistent EPS beats and a tendency to gap up post-earnings. Best strategy is a directional debit spread betting on a positive reaction, with a defined-risk short premium play as a secondary option.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 strong historical beat rate; +0.5 clear IV term structure kink; -0.5 no explicit earnings date
Most important: IV term structure kink at 5/01 expiration strongly suggests earnings are priced for that week. Historical beat rate is 100% (4/4) with an average positive gap.
📅Earnings date inferred from IV kink at 5/01 expiration and EPS estimate. Not explicitly confirmed.
📈Historical EPS beat rate is 100% with a consistent upward gap.
⚖️Spot ($252.89) is above max pain ($250) with strong positive GEX, suggesting near-term pinning risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 31%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$139.9M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem -$16.3M, P/C 0.78)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 1.2% (spot $252.89 vs MP $250)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (Inferred) (35 days)inferred (IV kink at 5/01, EPS estimate provided)

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (36d): ±$19.58 (7.7%) [$233.31 - $272.46]

IV Setup

Term structure: Clear kink at 5/01 expiration (30.6% ATM IV). IV rises from 27.2% (4/01) to 30.6% (5/01), then dips to 30.2% (5/15).

Crush estimate: ~3-4 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~27-28% range.

Skew: Net premium flow negative at ATM ($255), indicating more put buying pressure near spot. Unusual activity in OTM puts (e.g., $180 Aug '26) suggests longer-term hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot compute exact % move from provided data, but directional bias is clear.

Directional bias: 4/4 quarters gapped up post-earnings (based on EPS Act > Est).

Key Levels

1Max Pain: ~$250
2Expected Move Bounds: $233.31 - $272.46
3Heavy OI Call Walls: $280, $300

Flow Highlights

Large net negative premium at $255 strike (-$19.9M), driven by heavy put volume (70,741 contracts on 3/27 $255P).

Significant near-term downside protection being bought, possibly hedging into earnings or general market risk.

Strong net positive premium at $280 Call (+$6.9M) and $270 Call (+$6.0M).

Bullish flow targeting levels above the expected move, potentially betting on a strong earnings breakout.

Strategies

Bull Call Debit Spread (Directional Bet)
Buy $255 Call / Sell $270 Call exp 5/01
Debit: $6.50-$7.50
Max loss: $6.50
Max gain: $8.50
BE: $261.50
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings as IV rises.
Leverages historical upside bias. Defined risk limits IV crush impact. Strike selection targets middle of expected move range.
Outperforms: AAPL gaps up post-earnings and trades above $262.
Underperforms: AAPL is flat or down post-earnings. Suffers from IV crush but defined risk.
Short Iron Condor (Premium Sale)
Sell $240 Put / Buy $235 Put & Sell $275 Call / Buy $280 Call exp 5/01
Credit: $2.00-$2.50
Max loss: $3.00
Max gain: $2.50
BE: $237.50
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings when IV is near peak.
Capitalizes on elevated IV and expected crush. Wings placed outside expected move but inside major OI walls. Historical beats suggest low chance of a large miss.
Outperforms: AAPL stays between $240 and $275 (within the 7.7% EM).
Underperforms: AAPL gaps beyond short strikes ($240 or $275).
Put Calendar Spread (Volatility/Theta Play)
Sell $250 Put exp 4/24 (29d) / Buy $250 Put exp 5/01 (36d)
Credit: $0.50-$1.00
Max gain: Credit received
BE: Complex; benefits from accelerated theta decay on short leg and IV crush on long leg post-earnings.
Trigger: Enter 10-14 days before earnings.
Exploits the IV kink. Short near-dated put benefits from high theta, long put captures earnings vol and benefits from crush after the event. Max pain at $250 provides a potential magnet.
Outperforms: AAPL is near $250 at April expiration, and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: AAPL moves sharply away from $250 before April expiration.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 7.7% expected move is significant. A surprise on guidance could drive a move beyond these bounds.
!IV Crush: Estimated 3-4 vol point drop post-earnings. This will significantly reduce premium in long option strategies.
!Liquidity: Excellent. AAPL options are highly liquid across all expirations.
!Sizing: Due to the 35-day horizon, time decay will be slow initially. Position sizing should account for potential early moves based on market sentiment.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 5/01 expiration as earnings approach.
?Flow balance at the $255 strike (current spot) for clues on dealer positioning.
?Any unusual activity in weekly expirations immediately following the inferred 4/30 date.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.