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XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDRClose $62.37EOD only
Max Pain
$64.00
Next expiry Sep 25, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.15
1.8% from close
Price Gap
+1.63
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
22
Low premium
P/C OI
1.63
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Sep 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 23, 2026 close
XLE Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 25, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Long put spreads
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $52.5 support or above $56.4 resistance
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX/flow weakly aligned; +1 spot 0.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: Base 7.5, but negative dealer gamma and pin risk dampen appeal

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 37% vs VIX 19 – elevated
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Near-term (1-7d) IV high (40-50%), put skewed; back-month normal (28-36%)

⚠️Negative dealer gamma $54.9M amplifies moves
📌Max pain $54 (1d) $55 (7d) clusters near spot

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-54.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$52.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 86,929 (2.9% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put floor $35-$51, call wall $60; max pain $54-$55 near spot

Verdict: High pin risk for short-term options due to multiple expiry clustering

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-31 $54.50 call / buy 2026-09-18 $55.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy later-dated call to capture premium decay with upside protection.
Debit: $0.46-$0.56
Max loss: $0.56
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Manage if spot breaks $54 invalidation; adjust or close before expiry. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (137%).

Risk Alerts

!Negative dealer gamma (-$54.9M) increases volatility
!Trending gamma regime raises directional risk
!Pin risk elevated for this week's expirations
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.