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XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDRClose $59.55EOD only
Max Pain
$59.00
Next expiry Aug 7, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.56
2.6% from close
Price Gap
-0.55
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
9
Low premium
P/C OI
1.48
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jul 31, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 31, 2026 close
XLE Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 18, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Strangle
Invalidation: Break below 52.5 or above 55
Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV (37.96%) > VIX (16.4)
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Short-term elevated (0-12D ~22-29%), then decaying; backwardated.

🔺Short-term IV spike (22-28%) offers premium, but decay may be slow.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-245.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$52.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 80,165 (2.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI 80,165 (2.4% below spot); Call OI wall at $60-$60.

Verdict: Put wall supports near $55; gamma flip at $52.5.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $52.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $53.00 put
Short put calendar on 52 strike; benefits from time decay and expected IV contraction.
Debit: $0.35-$0.43
Max loss: $0.43
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Exit if stock breaks below 52.5; monitor theta decay.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $52.00/$51.00 put wing and $57.00/$62.00 call wing
Sell wings at 52/51 put and 57/62 call; limited tail risk due to wide wings.
Credit: $0.45-$0.56
Max loss: $4.44
BE: 51.44 / 57.56
Mgmt: Manage if price approaches either wing; adjust early. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (123%).

Risk Alerts

!Potential pin risk near max pain $55 on 0DTE (2026-06-18)
!Gamma flip zone at $52.5; break could accelerate move
!Dealer short gamma ($-245.9M) may amplify moves
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.