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XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDRClose $58.96EOD only

Max Pain

$57.50

Next expiry Jul 31, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.74

1.3% from close

Price Gap

-1.46

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.50

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jul 30, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jul 30, 2026 close

XLE Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.4% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 34.2% vs VIX 16.2: elevated relative to index

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Near-term backwardation (3d 28.4% > 11d 27.4%); mixed thereafter

⚠️IV rich vs VIX but near-term backwardation and bearish flow limit appeal

📉Dealer negative gamma -$265.5M adds hedging pressure

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-265.5M)

Gamma flip: ~$55.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 96,514 (1.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $58 for 6/18 & 6/26, $65 for 6/30; put floor $36-$52; call wall $60

Verdict: Elevated pin risk near $58; spot $55.33 below max pain; dealer short gamma amplifies

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $55.00/$53.00 put spread

Bullish-neutral bias, IV elevated, support at $55.

Credit: $0.65-$0.79

Max loss: $1.21

BE: $54.21

Mgmt: Upside gap risk, short gamma below.

Risk Alerts

!VIX 16.2 but XLE IV 34%, elevated

!Dealer gamma negative -$265.5M

!Put/call OI ratio 1.73 suggests bearish positioning

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.