thetaOwl
HomeOptionsXLEReports

XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDRClose $65.14EOD only
Max Pain
$65.00
Next expiry Sep 14, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.88
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-0.14
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
42
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.68
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Sep 11, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 11, 2026 close
XLE Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Put Credit Spread
Invalidation: XLE closes below $55 support
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.4% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 34.2% vs VIX 16.2: elevated relative to index
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term backwardation (3d 28.4% > 11d 27.4%); mixed thereafter

⚠️IV rich vs VIX but near-term backwardation and bearish flow limit appeal
📉Dealer negative gamma -$265.5M adds hedging pressure

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-265.5M)

Gamma flip: ~$55.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 96,514 (1.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $58 for 6/18 & 6/26, $65 for 6/30; put floor $36-$52; call wall $60

Verdict: Elevated pin risk near $58; spot $55.33 below max pain; dealer short gamma amplifies

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $55.00/$53.00 put spread
Bullish-neutral bias, IV elevated, support at $55.
Credit: $0.65-$0.79
Max loss: $1.21
BE: $54.21
Mgmt: Upside gap risk, short gamma below.

Risk Alerts

!VIX 16.2 but XLE IV 34%, elevated
!Dealer gamma negative -$265.5M
!Put/call OI ratio 1.73 suggests bearish positioning
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.