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XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDRClose $58.16EOD only
Max Pain
$58.50
Next expiry Aug 7, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.80
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+0.34
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
1.52
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Aug 6, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 6, 2026 close
XLE Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 23, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short Put Spreads
Invalidation: Spot break below $53
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot 0.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 32.2% vs VIX 19.5% – elevated premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Short-term elevated, mixed with backwardation near expiry

📈IV high relative to VIX, premium selling attractive
⚠️Dealer GEX -$110.9M, adds gamma risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-110.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$52.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 79,983 (3.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call wall $60-$60; Put floor $35-$51; Max pain $54 (6/26), $55 (6/30), $55 (7/2)

Verdict: Sticky pin risk near $54-$55; heavy put OI below spot pushes pin probability

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $55.00/$53.00 put spread
Sell $55/$53 put spread for credit; captures time decay and volatility compression.
Credit: $0.80-$0.98
Max loss: $1.02
BE: $54.02
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if spot breaks below $54.
#2
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-31 $53.00 put + sell $55.00 call
Sell $53 put and $55 call for credit; wide wings capture theta.
Credit: $2.34-$2.85
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 50.15 / 57.85
Mgmt: Monitor gamma and adjust if spot approaches strikes; roll if needed. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip at $52.5 could accelerate break
!High put OI concentration (79,983) 3.6% below spot
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.