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XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDRClose $57.50EOD only
Max Pain
$58.00
Next expiry Aug 14, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.48
2.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
22
Low premium
P/C OI
1.50
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Aug 7, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 7, 2026 close
XLE Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 24, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Iron condor
Invalidation: Price breaks outside $51-$55
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot 0.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV elevated vs VIX (32.7% vs 18.6%)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Backwardation: near-term IV (32.7%) above longer-term; spike at 30d expiry

💰High IV relative to VIX offers premium selling opportunity
⚠️Spike in 30d IV suggests event risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-148.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$52.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 79,994 (2.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $54 (2d), $65 (6d), $55 (8d); call wall $60, put floor $35-$50

Verdict: Multiple near-term pin levels; call wall $60 caps upside; put floor $35-$50 provides support

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $51.00/$49.00 put wing and $55.00/$57.00 call wing
Sells put spread and call spread to collect premium within $51-$55 range.
Credit: $0.68-$0.83
Max loss: $1.17
BE: 50.17 / 55.83
Mgmt: Adjust wings if price breaches $51 or $55; close at 50% profit. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (89%).
#2
Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-07-17 $51.00 cash-secured put
Sells put at $51 strike to collect premium with cash backing.
Credit: $0.43-$0.53
Max loss: $50.47
BE: $50.47
Mgmt: Roll put if price approaches $52.50; accept assignment if below $51.

Risk Alerts

!Negative gamma exposure (-$148.7M) increases price sensitivity
!Elevated put OI ratio (1.51) indicates bearish positioning
!Spot near max pain $54 may attract price to that level
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.