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XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDRClose $59.38EOD only

Max Pain

$57.00

Next expiry Jul 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.04

1.7% from close

Price Gap

-2.38

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.49

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jul 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jul 23, 2026 close

XLE Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 8, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

Elevated (32.8% vs 18.9 VIX)

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Short-term IV elevated with put skew; longer maturities stable near 28-30%.

📊Put skew persists across expirations, reflecting hedging demand.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+37.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$57.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 84,079 (1.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Heavy put OI at 57.5 and 55; gamma flip at 57.5. Max pain pinned at $58 for multiple expirations.

Verdict: Moderate pinning risk: spot at MP, positive GEX, but put skew indicates potential downside pressure.

Premium Opportunities

Iron condor

Sell 2026-07-17 $57.00/$55.00 put wing and $59.00/$63.00 call wing

Sell 57/55 put & 59/63 call wings for time decay with defined risk.

Credit: $1.62-$1.99

Max loss: $2.01

BE: 55.01 / 60.99

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or near expiration; monitor gamma flip at 57.5.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip at 57.5; break could lead to accelerated move.

!High put/call OI ratio (1.71) signals hedging, may cap upside.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.