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XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDRClose $57.68EOD only
Max Pain
$55.50
Next expiry Jul 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.73
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-2.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
1.33
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jul 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 17, 2026 close
XLE Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 4, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 4, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Iron condor around $58 max pain
Invalidation: Spot breaches gamma flip $57.5
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.3% from MP; +1 VIX 15

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV avg 33% vs VIX 15.4, elevated premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term IV high then flattening; event risk premium

❗Near-term IV elevated but pinning demands strike precision near MP

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+135.0M)

Gamma flip: ~$57.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 84,080 (2.1% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $58 (1d,1w); put OI 84k at $57.5, call OI heavy at $58

Verdict: Moderate pin risk: gamma flip at $57.5 dealers long gamma, likely pin to $58

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $58.00/$57.50 put wing and $60.00/$60.50 call wing
Sell put wing $58/$57.5 and call wing $60/$60.5 on 2026-06-26, receiving ~0.32 credit.
Credit: $0.26-$0.32
Max loss: $0.18
BE: 57.68 / 60.32
Mgmt: Manage as spot approaches $57.5 gamma flip; adjust or close wings if breached. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (62%).

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip at $57.5 close to spot
!Expiration pin risk this week at $58
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 4, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.