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XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDRClose $54.82EOD only

Max Pain

$53.00

Next expiry Jul 10, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.77

1.4% from close

Price Gap

-1.82

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.33

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jul 9, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jul 9, 2026 close

XLE Theta Report

Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 26, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

Avg IV ~39% vs VIX 17 — IV elevated

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Uneven term structure; near-term IV spiking at 46% (10d) but dropping at 32% (17d)

📊GEX -$144M — dealer short gamma

📈IV elevated provides premium

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-143.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$55.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,314 (4.9% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max Pain $59 (5/29), $58 (6/5,6/12); Gamma flip $55

Verdict: Moderate pin risk; high OI near spot, 3d to 1w expirations

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-06-18 $55.00/$54.00 put spread

Sell 55/54 put spread for 23 DTE, limited gamma risk

Credit: $0.14-$0.17

Max loss: $0.83

BE: $54.83

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if XLE breaks below 57.5

Iron condor

Sell 2026-06-18 $55.00/$54.00 put wing and $60.00/$62.00 call wing

Sell 55/54 put and 60/62 call wings

Credit: $0.69-$0.85

Max loss: $1.15

BE: 54.15 / 60.85

Mgmt: Exit if either side tested Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (56%).

Risk Alerts

!Negative dealer gamma may amplify moves

!High put/call OI ratio (1.85) reflects bearish tilt

!Uneven IV term structure complicates premium selling

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.