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XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDRClose $61.29EOD only
Max Pain
$58.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.41
2.3% from close
Price Gap
-2.79
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.80
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
XLE Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short put spreads
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $57.5 or above $65
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX/flow weakly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 34% vs VIX 18%, rich by ~16 pts
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end elevated (33-45%), backwardated, put skew > call skew

📈IV elevated near-term, put skew suggests hedging demand

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+148.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$52.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,975 (14.3% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put floor $36-$58 (109,975 OI), call wall $65-$65

Verdict: High pin risk at $58 across multiple expiries; dealer gamma positive +$148M

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $60.00/$57.50 put wing and $65.00/$67.50 call wing
Sell 60/57.5 put and 65/67.5 call; collects 1.24 credit, max loss 1.26.
Credit: $1.02-$1.24
Max loss: $1.26
BE: 58.76 / 66.24
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot nears wings; adjust if pin risk materializes.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $60.00/$57.50 put spread
Sell 60/57.5 put spread; collects 0.81 credit, invalidation at 58.5.
Credit: $0.66-$0.81
Max loss: $1.69
BE: $59.19
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops to $58.5; roll down if necessary to manage risk.

Risk Alerts

!Spot at $61.4 is 4.8% above max pain $58, risk of pinning to $58
!Put-call OI ratio 1.80 indicates bearish sentiment bias
!Front-end IV rich but high skew may decay quickly if spot stays stable
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.