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XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDRClose $61.29EOD only
Max Pain
$58.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.41
2.3% from close
Price Gap
-2.79
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.80
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
XLE Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
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You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short put spread
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $57 support or gamma flip at $52.5
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 33.7% vs VIX 18.4, ratio 1.83x, elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-week skew extreme (put IV 72%, call IV 58%); rest contango ~28-31%

💰IV elevated 1.8x VIX, premium selling attractive
⚠️Front-week put skew extreme (72% IV), high risk
📌Positive gamma pinning near $57-$58

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+251.5M)

Gamma flip: ~$52.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 108,994 (11.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Heavy put OI at $36-$55 (structural floor), put/call OI ratio 1.74

Verdict: Spot above max pain $58, gamma pinning near $57-$58, pin risk moderate; watch gamma flip at $52.5

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $57.00/$55.00 put spread
Sell $57/$55 put spread to collect premium with defined risk, benefiting from IV contraction and pinning.
Credit: $0.27-$0.34
Max loss: $1.66
BE: $56.66
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaks below $57.50.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-05 $57.00/$55.00 put wing and $60.00/$62.50 call wing
Sell $57/$55 put and $60/$62.5 call wings, profiting from range-bound price near $57-$58.
Credit: $0.97-$1.19
Max loss: $1.31
BE: 55.81 / 61.19
Mgmt: Manage if spot approaches wings; close early for partial gains. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (62%).

Risk Alerts

!Skew risk: front-week put IV 72% may collapse
!Spot within 5% of support $57, downside risk
!Gamma flip at $52.5 could accelerate drop if broken
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.