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USO

United States Oil FundClose $142.54EOD only

Max Pain

$142.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.83

4.1% from close

Price Gap

-0.54

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.72

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

USO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Spot at max pain $141 with high vol, negative dealer gamma, and positive dealer delta suggests a neutral pinning regime with asymmetric breakout risk. Mixed flow and VIX 17 keep confidence moderate.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot near MP; +1 VIX 17. Net 6.

Supports: Spot near MP, positive dealer delta, tight MP pin at $141.
Conflicts: Negative dealer gamma, mixed flow, high vol regime.

⚠️Negative gamma ($-32.2M) can amplify moves.

📌Max pain $141 acts as magnet.

📊DEX +37.5M shares shows dealer long delta.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV is High relative to typical range, supporting larger potential moves.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma is Trending (negative GEX $-32.2M), dealers short gamma amplifies price action.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is Mixed with no clear directional bias; large put OI at $100 suggests downside hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot is At max pain ($141), creating a pinning effect.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Range-bound between support $123.52 and resistance $158.32 with MP pin at $141; dealer gamma structure suggests potential breakout but no imminent catalyst.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$129.79$152.04

Range $129.79-$152.04; MP $141 anchor.

Next 2 weeks

$123.52$158.32

Wider range $123.52-$158.32; MP $141 remains anchor.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $141 (2026-05-22); $143 (2026-05-27); $140 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 1w $129.79/$152.04

Support: $123.52

Resistance: $141.00 · $158.32

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,988 (29.0% below spot)

Structural: Support $123.52 (2w low), resistance $141 (MP) and $158.32 (2w high); gamma flip ~$100 (put OI concentration).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-32.2M

DEX: +37.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,988 (29.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma ($-32.2M GEX) with long delta (+37.5M DEX); gamma flip at ~$100.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV elevated relative to VIX (16.7), indicating rich option premiums.

Term structure: Assume contango typical for commodity ETF; no event kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to put OI concentration; consider call spread if bullish.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net long $8M but put/call volume ratio 1.27; bullish call prints dominate unusual activity.

Directional prints: 83 call 154 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 1860 vs OI 125 (14.9x). Likely bought opening: bullish bet on further upside. Short closing possible but less likely given high vol. 76.2 call 146 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 2161 vs OI 191 (11.3x). Aggressive bullish buying; seller would take premium but risk high. 82.5 call 153 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 2063 vs OI 204 (10.1x). Strong call buying; preferred read is bullish momentum.

Unusual: 83 call 154 OTM 2026-05-29 — Extreme vol/OI 14.9; likely institutional buy. Bullish. 85.2 put 110 OTM 2026-05-27 — Deep OTM put vol 2359 vs OI 163 (14.5x). Could be hedge or speculative bearish; premium cheap. 76.2 call 146 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 11.3; large opening call sweep. Bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Breakout above $158.32 or below $123.52 from gamma squeeze.

!Crude oil supply/demand shocks.

!Event risk from OPEC or inventory data.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-12 $141.00/$142.00 call spread Why now: Bull call spread profits if USO rallies modestly, defined risk suits pinning regime.	Breakout fails, time decay erodes spread. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-12 $124.00/$123.00 put wing and $141.00/$142.00 call wing Why now: Iron condor collects premium from range-bound price action; defined wings limit tail risk.	Breakout beyond wings causes loss; vol spike hurts. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-12 $141.00 call Why now: Direct long call profits from directional rally; high vol favors convexity.	Time decay accelerates if price stalls; downside unlimited. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-12 $124.00/$123.00 put spread Why now: Put credit spread collects premium with defined risk; aligns with positive dealer delta.	Sharp drop below short strike results in max loss.

Top Plays

Iron Condor

Sell 2026-06-12 $124.00/$123.00 put wing and $141.00/$142.00 call wing

Sell $124/$123 put and $141/$142 call wings to profit from range-bound price action.

Why this play: Best fit for neutral pinning regime: collects premium with defined risk, matches dealer gamma profile.

Credit: $0.65-$0.80

Max loss: $0.20

BE: 123.20 / 141.80

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if volatility spikes; adjust wings if breakout materializes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders expecting limited movement near max pain $141.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-12 $124.00/$123.00 put spread

Sell $124/$123 put spread to capture premium with defined downside risk.

Why this play: Liquidity-passing bullish play that leverages positive dealer delta and premium collection.

Credit: $0.29-$0.36

Max loss: $0.64

BE: $123.64

Mgmt: Exit if USO breaks below $124; roll to lower strikes if necessary.

Traders with mild bullish bias and desire for high liquidity.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-12 $141.00/$142.00 call spread

Buy $141/$142 call spread to benefit from a rally while capping max loss.

Why this play: Captures upside breakout potential with defined risk; aligns with unusual call volume at $154.

Debit: $0.36-$0.44

Max loss: $0.44

BE: $141.44

Mgmt: Take profit near $142; adjust if volatility collapses or trend reverses. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders speculating on continued upside momentum from current levels.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFUSO $124-$142; IVR<30: iron condor; else if price >$124: put credit spread → If IVR<30: sell $124/$123 put & $141/$142 call; else: sell $124/$123 put spread

Exit Triggers

EXITUSO breaks below $123.52 or above $158.32 → Exit all positions

Tactical Summary

Neutral pinning near $141 max pain. Entry: iron condor if low volatility (IVR<30), else put credit spread if support holds. Exit on break of $123.52 or $158.32.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.