USO
United States Oil FundClose $142.54EOD onlyThis page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
Bearish bias on USO driven by dealer short gamma, bearish flow, and spot at max pain. Low VIX but high specific vol suggests near-term downside to support at 142. Conflict: dealer long delta may provide cushion.
Conflicts: Low VIX (16.76), dealer long delta (DEX +37.2M shares).
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $-1.9M
DEX: +37.2M shares
Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,900 (29.8% below spot))
NTM gamma: GEX -$1.9M (short gamma, bearish hedging), DEX +37.2M shares (long delta). Gamma flip at ~$100, far below spot, unlikely to trigger.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: USO IV elevated relative to VIX (16.76), indicating rich vol priced in for oil-specific events.
Term structure: Likely contango typical for oil ETFs; near-tenor elevated due to expiry and event risk.
Skew: Put skew elevated; opportunity in selling puts at 142 support if contango persists.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net negative premium of -$25.4M with elevated put volume (P/C 2.32) and OI (1.72) ratios, indicating bearish flow.
Directional prints: 73.1 put 133 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 15.3x; high put volume suggests bought puts (bearish) rather than sold. Preferred bearish. 67.7 put 138 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 5.0x; consistent with bearish put buying. Preferred bearish.
Unusual: 78.3 call 143 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 15.5x; high call volume but net bearish flow suggests sold calls. Preferred bearish. 66 put 130 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 7.8x; longer-dated put. Likely bought for bearish protection. Preferred bearish. 76.3 put 150 ITM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 5.9x; ITM put. Could be purchased hedge or sold. Given bearish flow, likely bought.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear put spread | Moderate | Buy 2026-06-12 $140.00/$135.00 put spread Why now: High put volume and bearish flow suggest continued weakness; defined-risk bear put spread capitalizes on downside with limited risk. | If oil spikes above 140 due to supply shocks, position can be stopped out. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (51%). |
| Long put | Moderate | Buy 2026-06-12 $140.00 put Why now: Unusual put activity at 133 and negative premium flow indicate institutional hedging; long put offers asymmetric downside payoff. | Time decay if spot stays above 140; vol collapse could reduce premium. |
| Call credit spread | Moderate-Weak | Sell 2026-06-12 $145.00/$149.50 call spread Why now: Bearish flow and max pain near 142 suggest limited upside; selling call credit spread at 145/149.5 captures premium with high probability. | Oil supply shock could push price above 149.5, resulting in max loss. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25. |
| Bearish risk reversal | Conditional | Buy 2026-06-12 $135.00 put / sell 2026-06-12 $145.00 call Why now: Bearish flow and dealer short gamma favor puts; selling call premium offsets put cost while maintaining downside convexity. | Short call caps upside gain and exposes to strong rally above 145. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (51%). |
Top Plays
Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.