USO
United States Oil FundClose $116.04EOD onlyThis page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
Bias: modestly bullish-to-neutral on USO near-term; spot below market pin levels, dealer delta long and bullish flow, but negative net GEX and trending gamma raise risk of amplified moves and mean-reversion into $118–$125 pins.
Conflicts: Net negative GEX and trending gamma amplify directional moves; IV regime high increases cost of long volatility.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $-5.4M
DEX: +33.6M shares
Gamma flip: ~$90 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 29,045 (25.8% below spot))
NTM gamma: Net GEX ~ -$5.4M (short convexity) with DEX +33.6M shares; dealers long underlying delta but negative gamma increases sensitivity to spot moves; gamma flip ~ $90.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: USO IV is rich vs lower-tail historic norms and roughly consistent with VIX ~19; elevated IV increases cost of long volatility and favors premium-selling if comfortable with directional gamma risk.
Term structure: Term structure shows elevated near-term IV with kinks at expiries aligned to max-pain dates (4/22, 4/24, 4/29); front-months richer than farther-dated series.
Skew: Put concentration below spot creates skew; viable vol-structure opportunity: sell short-dated premium against pin levels or consider call spreads to express limited upside given high IV.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Large call-skewed net premium (~$34.6M) with put/call vol <1 but OI skew >1 — overall bullish flow though GEX/flow may conflict.
Directional prints: 89.1 call 123 OTM 2026-04-22 — Very large short-dated call volume (3816, vol/oi 19). Likely aggressive call buying or dealers shorting calls; preferred read: buyer-driven bullish 103.8 call 163 OTM 2026-05-01 — High IV and huge volume (4605). Convex bullish bets or spreads; preferred read: directional call buys 92.2 put 102 OTM 2026-04-22 — Notable short-dated put activity (1052, vol/oi 8) with high IV — likely protection/put buying; preferred read: hedge demand
Unusual: 89.1 call 123 OTM 2026-04-22 — Same as directional: outsized short-dated call buying 103.8 call 163 OTM 2026-05-01 — Large near-term call flow, high IV — aggressive bullish exposure 92.2 put 102 OTM 2026-04-22 — Elevated put flow consistent with protective buying
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull call spread | Moderate | Buy 2026-05-15 $116.00/$125.00 call spread Why now: Large short-dated call buying and dealer bullish flow + elevated IV favor a defined-risk long-call spread to capture upside while limiting premium paid and gamma exposure. | Sharp commodity reversal or gamma-driven chop that reverts into $118–$125 pins before spread profits. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5. |
| Put credit spread | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-05-08 $115.00/$105.00 put spread Why now: Collect skewed put premium given bullish flow and elevated near-term IV; defined-risk if mean-reversion or commodity shock occurs. | Commodity-driven gap down that overwhelms short put wing. |
| Bull call spread | Moderate | Buy 2026-05-15 $121.00/$125.00 call spread Why now: Front-month call demand and dealer shorting lift call premia; buy upside convexity while financing with a higher strike sell. | Sudden IV spike or mean-reversion into pin range compresses spread value. |
| Call diagonal | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-05-08 $123.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $126.00 call Why now: Very large short-dated call prints and elevated near-term IV create opportunity to sell front-month and buy further-dated exposure to net long gamma later. | Front-month squeeze or abrupt IV reprice widens short leg losses before decay. |
| Cash-secured put | Moderate | Sell 2026-05-15 $114.00 cash-secured put Why now: Bullish-to-neutral bias and rich put IV allow collecting premium at targeted entry price near support pins. | Sharp downside move triggers assignment at worse-than-expected price during commodity shock. |
Top Plays
Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.