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USO

United States Oil FundClose $152.96EOD only

Max Pain

$143.00

Next expiry May 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.13

2.7% from close

Price Gap

-9.96

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.67

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

USO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from May 19, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Moderately bullish bias driven by strong dealer gamma positive and flow alignment, but spot trades 7% above max pain ($143), risking mean reversion. High vol regime supports wider swings; pinning dynamics may pull spot back toward $143 by expiry.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18 -> net 7.5/10 bullish.

Supports: Dealer GEX +$41.7M, bullish flow, pinning support near $143.
Conflicts: Spot 7% above max pain, high vol regime, mixed flow details.

📊GEX +$41.7M strongly bullish, indicating dealer hedging supports upward moves.

📌Max pain pin at $143 (expiry 5/20) may attract price, limiting upside.

⚠️Spot 7% above MP and high vol regime raise reversion risk near term.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol is High: elevated IV relative to VIX 18, consistent with oil uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma is pinning: dealer GEX +$41.7M positive, concentrated near $143, providing magnetic pull.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is Mixed: net premium positive but seasonal and hedging flows create competing signals.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain (~$143), 7% distance, suggesting vulnerability to reversion.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Focus on near-term expiry (5/20) with pinning dynamics and high vol; thesis likely resolves within days.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$148.83$157.09

Spot near top of range ($148.83-$157.09) and above MP; expect pullback toward $148-143.

Next 1 week

$140.61$165.31

Wider range ($140.61-$165.31); potential for pinning to $143 but oil vol could break either direction.

Next 2 weeks

$133.86$172.06

Range $133.86-$172.06; dealer support and structural gamma favor upside over time.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $143 (2026-05-20); $140 (2026-05-22); $143 (2026-05-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $148.83/$157.09; 1w $140.61/$165.31

Support: $143.00 · $133.86

Resistance: $157.00 · $172.06

Structural: Support: $143 (max pain 5/20), $133.86 (2w low). Resistance: $157 (2d high), $172.06 (2w high). No gamma flip above spot.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+41.7M

DEX: +38.5M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: NTM GEX +$41.7M positive; delta +38.5M shares; dealer long gamma supports current price and dampens volatility.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is elevated relative to VIX 18, reflecting oil-specific risk premium. Options are rich for hedgers but expensive for directional plays.

Term structure: Likely in backwardation, with front-end IV higher due to near-term expiry uncertainty. Event risk from OPEC or inventory data may kink.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling downside puts near support for premium decay, given pinning support at $143.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$38.3M, put/call volume ratio 1.13 (more puts) and OI ratio 1.67, indicating net call buying overall.

Directional prints: 61.9 call 155 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI ratio 10.8, massive new call buying; likely bullish bet on further upside. 46.2 call 151 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 4.8, heavy call buying for weekly expiration; bullish positioning. 61.4 put 145 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 3.1, elevated put volume; bearish hedge or speculative downside.

Unusual: 61.9 call 155 OTM 2026-05-27 — Extreme vol/OI ratio of 10.8, suggests aggressive opening call buying. 68.9 put 140 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 5.2, noteworthy put volume; potential protective or speculative. 74.7 put 130 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 4.4, deep OTM put with high volume; possible downside speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot far from max pain increases reversion risk.

!High vol regime can amplify moves either direction.

!Flow details mixed may shift sentiment quickly.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-05 $149.00/$161.00 call spread Why now: Moderate bullish bias, high vol favors debit spread; 155 call unusual activity confirms upside.	Spot above max pain could revert, limiting profit. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Long call	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-18 $157.00 call Why now: Dealer gamma positive and call buying suggest upward momentum; long call captures convexity.	High vol premium decay; spot far from max pain may revert.
Call diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $170.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $160.00 call Why now: High vol regime favors term structure; short near-term call premium funds long back-month call.	Assignment risk on short leg; if spot moves against, diagonal can lose.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $149.00/$161.00 call spread

Buy $149/$161 call spread for moderate upside.

Why this play: Defined risk, high vol, aligns with 155 call unusual flow.

Debit: $4.84-$5.91

Max loss: $5.91

BE: $154.91

Mgmt: Exit if spot below $143. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; short_call: Open interest below 25.

Risk-averse moderate bulls.

Long Call

Buy 2026-06-18 $157.00 call

Buy $157 call for convexity in high vol.

Why this play: Leverage upside, dealer gamma positive supports momentum.

Debit: $9.54-$11.66

Max loss: $11.66

BE: $168.66

Mgmt: Stop loss at $143, adjust if vol drops.

Aggressive bulls.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-06-05 $170.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $160.00 call

Short $170 call, long $160 call.

Why this play: Sell near-term premium, buy back-month.

Debit: $8.89-$10.86

Max loss: $10.86

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll short call if tested.

Vol premium harvesters.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds above $143 and breaks above $157 → Buy $149/$161 bull call spread at $4.84–$5.91

IFIf spot breaks above $157 with momentum → Buy $157 long call at $9.54–$11.66

IFIf spot stays between $143 and $157 and IV elevated → Enter call diagonal short $170/long $160 at $8.89–$10.86

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $143 → Exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Moderately bullish bias, reversion risk near $143 max pain. Key resistance $157. Top plays: bull call spread $149/$161, long call $157, call diagonal. Invalidation at $143. High vol regime; manage stops tightly.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.