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USO

United States Oil FundClose $137.27EOD only
Max Pain
$137.00
Next expiry Jun 3, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.19
2.3% from close
Price Gap
-0.27
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.77
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
USO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

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You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Slightly bullish short-to-medium: spot sits above dealer MP; dealer short-gamma creates fragile upside that can accelerate but also prompt mean-reverting moves if hedged — bias toward $120–125 while puts near $100–110 provide a lower-floor.

Confidence:
4 / 10
Moderate confidence: spot>MP and concentrated put OI support upside; trimmed by dealer short-gamma fragility and mixed flow.
Supports: Spot above MP, concentrated puts creating asymmetric support, elevated IV versus historical norms
Conflicts: Dealer short-gamma (fragile hedging) and mixed flow that can invert moves rapidly
📈Spot > MP; upside bias to $120–125 but not guaranteed
⚠️Negative GEX (~-$55.7M) = dealer short-gamma → hedging can amplify moves or induce mean-reversion
📊Front-month IV ~38% vs 1y avg ~28% (≈75th pct) — vol is rich, favors buying directional rather than aggressive premium selling

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High: front-month IV ~38% vs 1y historical ~28% (≈70–75th percentile), VIX ~17 supports richer pricing.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Dealers net short-gamma (GEX negative ≈ -$55.7M). Short-gamma creates fragility: dealer hedging can amplify moves or force mean-reversion rather than steady pinning; gamma flip ≈ $100.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed: protection buying for tail risk plus selective directional buys; not a clear one-sided premium bleed to dealers.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above market pins; nearest MP cluster $110–$125 providing pull zones and potential pin attempts.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained elevated IV, concentrated put OI, and persistent dealer short-gamma favor a multi-week directional bias subject to gamma-driven path dynamics

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$105.92$126.17
Driven by spot>MP and elevated IV; watch $105.92 support and hedging-driven whips
Next 2 weeks
$101.99$130.09
Put concentration near $100 may cap initial downside but breach would spike vol and accelerate declines

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $110 (2026-04-17); $125 (2026-04-22); $122 (2026-04-24)
EM guardrails: 1w $105.92/$126.17
Support: $110.00 · $101.99
Resistance: $130.09
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,083 (13.8% below spot)
Structural: Max-pain pins: $110/$122–125 cluster; EM guardrails 1w ~$105.92/$126.17; support ~$110/$101.99; resistance ~$130.09; gamma flip ≈ $100.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-55.7M

DEX: +40.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,083 (13.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer GEX ≈ -$55.7M (short gamma), DEX +40.6M shares; gamma flip near $100 meaning dealer hedging likely to drive outsized moves around that level.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Front-month IV ~38% vs 1y avg ~28% (~70–75th percentile); VIX ≈17 corroborates elevated short-term vol — implies IV is rich enough to favor buying directional or defined-risk debit structures over naked premium sales.

Term structure: Steep front-end: near expiries (clustered ~4/22–4/24) elevated versus back months, creating front-month pinch and event kinks.

Skew: Put-heavy skew concentrated ~13–14% OTM under spot; actionable: defined-risk put spreads or long-dated directional buys sized for gamma-flip risk rather than naked short premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Large positive net premium (~86M) with put-heavy ratios (vol P/C 1.31, OI P/C 1.61) — overall tilt to puts despite sizable call flow.

Directional prints: 39.6 call 114 ITM 2026-04-17 — 7048 vol vs 188 OI (vol/OI 37.5). Likely call buys or opening aggressive flow; preferred read: directional call interest pushing upside gamma. 17.8 call 116 ITM 2026-04-17 — 10223 vol vs 439 OI (23.3). Large short-dated call volume — likely directional buys or spreads; bullish pick. 31.3 put 112 OTM 2026-04-17 — 12512 vol vs 877 OI (14.3). Heavy near-dated put trade; preferred read: protective or bearish accumulation.

Unusual: 81.6 call 115 ITM 2026-04-24 — High IV and vol/OI 17.3 — large expensive calls, possible event/spec flow. 95.3 call 128 OTM 2026-04-24 — 5092 vol, IV extreme (95%) — speculative/highly directional positioning. 94 call 125 OTM 2026-04-22 — 6637 vol with high IV (~94%) — notable size in far OTM short-dated calls.

Risks & Catalysts

!Breach of gamma flip (~$100) triggering sharp vol spike and downside acceleration
!Dealer hedging causing rapid mean-reversion or amplified whips limiting smooth continuation
!IV collapse if macro sentiment rapidly improves, reducing directional edge

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-05-29 $143.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $134.00 call
Why now: Dealer short-gamma and concentrated call flow make near-term call IV rich; collect premium short-term and keep longer-dated upside convexity with a modestly sized back-month position.
Rapid IV collapse or sudden downside gamma flip below ~$100 can hurt short leg and widen spreads. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (76%).; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-05-15 $121.00/$143.00 call spread
Why now: Slightly bullish multi-week view; buy convexity and finance with selling higher-call to reduce debit given rich call vols and dealer short-gamma risk.
Gamma flip near $100 or sudden dealer hedging can spike vol and hurt directional legs.
Long callModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-05-22 $125.50 call
Why now: Own convex upside into a multi-week run toward 120–125; prefers back-months to avoid near-term gamma whips.
IV collapse or rapid mean-reversion from dealer hedging limiting gains. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-01 $109.00/$100.00 put spread
Why now: Flow is put-heavy and near-term put IV is high; collect premium with limited downside in multi-week horizon but keep protection vs gamma flip.
Sharp downside breach (<$100) can spike losses; require careful strike selection and width control.

Top Plays

#1
Short near-call / back-month long call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-29 $143.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $134.00 call
Collect front-month IV, cap short-term upside exposure, keep convex exposure via back-month call to benefit from sustained move toward 120–125
Why this play: Sells rich near-term call premium while retaining longer-dated upside; expresses view that dealer short-gamma makes front-month calls expensive and fragile
Debit: $2.10-$2.57
Max loss: $2.57
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Trim or buy back short when spot breaches 134–143 or if front-month IV spikes; roll long further out if trend strengthens Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (76%).; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Traders wanting income with asymmetric upside exposure and who accept limited early-time risk
#2
Short put credit spread (near-term)
Sell 2026-05-01 $109.00/$100.00 put spread
Sell 109/100 put spread to earn credit while maintaining protection vs sharp downside beyond ~100
Why this play: Leans into heavy put flow and rich near-term put IV to collect premium with defined risk
Credit: $2.07-$2.54
Max loss: $6.46
BE: $106.46
Mgmt: Close or widen if price approaches 109 or if vol surges near gamma flip; take max gain at expiry
Income traders comfortable with limited downside into multi-week horizon
#3
Bull call spread (calendar-lite)
Buy 2026-05-15 $121.00/$143.00 call spread
Buy 121/143 May spread to capture move toward 120–125 while capping premium decay
Why this play: Directional bullish with defined risk and lower cost than outright long calls given elevated call IV
Debit: $3.74-$4.58
Max loss: $4.58
BE: $125.58
Mgmt: Hold while trend builds; exit or roll if spot stalls under 121 or IV collapses
Traders who want directional upside with limited loss

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF USO trades between $121 and $130 → THEN enter calcall_001: sell 2026-05-29 $143 call / buy 2026-06-18 $134 call within entry range
IFIF USO stays above $109 (multi-week) → THEN enter s3: sell 2026-05-01 $109/$100 put credit spread within entry range
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF USO breaches $134–$143 or front-month call behavior shows sharp IV spike → THEN trim or buy back short leg of calcall_001; consider rolling long call further out if trend persists
Exit Triggers
EXITIF USO breaches $100 (gamma flip) or tears below $110 invalidation → THEN close all short premium and directional long positions (buy to close spreads/calls) to limit accelerated downside

Tactical Summary

Slightly bullish multi-week toward $120–125; favor call-diagonal for income+convexity and near-term put-credit for income, cut quickly on <$110 invalidation or <$100 gamma flip.
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This directional reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
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