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USO

United States Oil FundClose $152.96EOD only

Max Pain

$143.00

Next expiry May 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.13

2.7% from close

Price Gap

-9.96

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.67

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

USO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with pinning at $145; high confidence supported by dealer gamma and spot proximity to max pain. Upside target within 2d range but resistance at $145 may cap.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX positive +1 spot near MP +1 VIX 17 = 10, adjusted to 9 for mixed flow and resistance.

Supports: GEX positive, spot at MP, DEX long, VIX moderate
Conflicts: Resistance at $145, flow mixed, high vol regime

📌Pinning gamma at $145 with +$3.3M GEX

🚧Resistance $145 from max pain and call OI

📈Spot at max pain, bullish dealer positioning

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol regime; IV elevated vs historical

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma pinning at $145; positive GEX $+3.3M

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; net premium context neutral but dealer delta long

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at max pain ($145) for current expiry

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near expiry (2026-05-20) with pinning gamma and high vol; event-specific thesis for expiry day.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$136.72$151.82

Upside to $145, capped by resistance

Next 1 week

$131.15$157.40

Wider range; pin from expiry may give way to broader trend

Next 2 weeks

$125.67$162.87

Structural uncertainty; range bound by support 125.67 and resistance 162.87

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $145 (2026-05-20); $141 (2026-05-22); $143 (2026-05-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $136.72/$151.82; 1w $131.15/$157.40

Support: $125.67

Resistance: $145.00 · $157.00 · $162.87

Structural: Max pain $145 (5/20), $141 (5/22), $143 (5/27). EM guardrails: 2d $136.72/$151.82, 1w $131.15/$157.40. Support $125.67, resistance $145/$157/$162.87. No gamma flip below spot.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+3.3M

DEX: +37.6M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX $+3.3M, DEX +37.6M shares; no gamma flip, positive gamma pinning near $145.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV elevated relative to VIX (17.44), consistent with high vol regime and near-expiry pinning.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to expiry; backwardation expected as event passes.

Skew: Call skew elevated at $145 resistance; put skew relatively flat. Opportunity: consider short volatility post-expiry if pinning resolves.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Positive net premium $2.6M, put/call vol ratio 1.57 (bearish volume) & OI ratio 1.68 (put heavy OI), mixed.

Directional prints: 47 call 147 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 7.7: 988 vs 128 OI. OTM call buying likely; new bullish position. 26.9 put 142 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 7.5: 4185 vs 561 OI. OTM put buying, bearish directional; high volume suggests new position. 87.7 call 200 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 7.1: 4251 vs 598 OI. Very OTM call with high IV; likely bought as upside speculation.

Unusual: 53.7 put 200 ITM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 7.5: 1024 vs 136 OI. Deep ITM put trading; likely sold as bearish spread or hedging, unusual size. 170.1 call 230 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 6.0: 601 vs 101 OI. Extremely OTM call with 170% IV; lottery ticket, possibly bought. 77.8 put 138 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 5.0: 2357 vs 476 OI. OTM put with high IV; could be buying for downside protection or selling premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Resistance at $145 may cap upside

!Vol expansion from unexpected news

!Gamma pinning could reverse if spot breaks below support

!Flow mixed indicates uncertainty

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-12 $145.00/$150.00 call spread Why now: Thesis leans bullish next 2 days; high IV but resistance caps; spread limits risk.	If spot fails to rally above 145, spread may lose value; time decay works against.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $125.50/$121.50 put spread Why now: Near-term vol elevated; bullish lean supports selling puts; spread limits downside.	Sharp downside reversal could breach short put; resistance at 145 may cap upside but not affect put spread. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (168%).; long_put: Wide spread (166%).
Call calendar	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $145.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $145.00 call Why now: Unusual call buying at 147 suggests demand; diagonal captures time decay while maintaining bullish delta.	If spot drops below 140, diagonal loses; if spot shoots above 145, short call caps upside.

Top Plays

Bull call spread

Buy 2026-06-12 $145.00/$150.00 call spread

Buy $145/$150 call spread to cap cost while leveraging upside to $150.

Why this play: Best aligns with bullish thesis next 2 days, limits risk near resistance, liquid.

Debit: $1.64-$2.01

Max loss: $2.01

BE: $147.01

Mgmt: Exit if spot falls below invalidation $125.67 or near $150.

Traders expecting gradual move to $150 within 23 days.

Call calendar

Sell 2026-06-05 $145.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $145.00 call

Sell near-term $145 call, buy longer-term $145 call to profit from volatility and time.

Why this play: Captures call demand at $147 with time decay on short leg and bullish delta.

Debit: $5.51-$6.74

Max loss: $6.74

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close if short call tested or spot drops below support.

Traders expecting limited near-term upside but longer-term bullish trend.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $125.50/$121.50 put spread

Sell $125.50/$121.50 put spread for premium with defined risk.

Why this play: Bullish lean but lower liquidity; less favorable than other plays.

Credit: $0.43-$0.52

Max loss: $3.48

BE: $124.98

Mgmt: Watch for volatility; exit if spot nears short strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (168%).; long_put: Wide spread (166%).

Traders with high confidence in no downside break.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $125.67 and trades above $140 → THEN enter bull call spread (buy 145/150 call spread)

IFIF spot trades between $143 and $145 with vol expansion → THEN enter call calendar (sell near-term 145 call, buy longer-term 145 call)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $125.67 → THEN exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish next 2 days, target $150, resistance $145. Invalidation $125.67. Favor bull call spread (rank 1) or call calendar (rank 2). Monitor support.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.