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USO

United States Oil FundClose $144.30EOD only

Max Pain

$134.00

Next expiry May 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.71

2.6% from close

Price Gap

-10.30

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.71

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

USO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish near term from dealer gamma support and pinning to $135, but elevated vol and mixed flow keep upside capped near $147. Range-bound between $135 and $147 today.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -1 spot 5.2% above MP; +1 VIX 18 -> score 8.

Supports: Positive dealer gamma (+$38.1M), pinning at $135, strong GEX.
Conflicts: Spot above max pain, high vol, mixed flow.

📈Positive gamma supports near $135

⚠️Spot 5% above MP may pull back

📊Mixed flow indicates indecision

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated due to oil price uncertainty and event risk (OPEC, inventory).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Strong positive GEX of +$38.1M; gamma flip at $100 (far below spot) so flip risk low.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; put OI concentrated 29.6% below spot suggests hedged positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~$142, ~5% above $135 max pain for today's expiry; pinning likely.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Today's options expiration with $135 max pain creates a pinning event supported by dealer gamma.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$137.13$146.95

Pinning to $135; upside limited by $147 resistance.

Next 1 week

$131.96$152.11

Range $132-$152; support $132, resistance $152.

Next 2 weeks

$125.69$158.39

Wider range $126-$158; downside risk if oil weakens.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $135 (2026-05-13); $125 (2026-05-15); $136 (2026-05-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $137.13/$146.95; 1w $131.96/$152.11

Support: $135.00 · $125.69

Resistance: $158.39

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 29,137 (29.6% below spot)

Structural: Support: $135 (max pain), $125.69 (2w low); Resistance: $146.95 (2d high), $158.39 (2w high); Gamma flip: ~$100.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+38.1M

DEX: +42.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 29,137 (29.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma +$38.1M, flip ~$100; DEX long +42.1M shares.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: USO IV elevated vs VIX (17.87) due to oil-specific risks (OPEC, geopolitics).

Term structure: Contango in futures likely reflected in options; back-month vol higher.

Skew: Put skew elevated; opportunity: sell upside calls near $147 for premium collection given pinning.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$75.4M; put/call vol 1.47, OI 1.72; bearish put buying.

Directional prints: 52.1 put 136 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 40x; aggressive put buying; bearish. 55.2 put 143 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 11.6x; ITM put buying; bearish. 61.2 put 135 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 6.4x; OTM put buying; bearish.

Unusual: 367.6 call 75 ITM 2026-05-15 — Deep ITM call with 367% IV; vol/OI 5.4x; possible closing. 11.1 put 141 OTM 2026-05-13 — Expires today vol/OI 6.3x; near strike; hedging/closing. 14.2 put 142 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 5.0x; ITM put buying; bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Oil price shock

!OPEC surprise

!Inventory builds

!Sharp break below $135

!Expiry volatility

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $135.00/$134.00 put spread Why now: Dealer gamma support and put buying suggest 135 holds; selling put spread captures that view.	Oil price shock could break support and cause max loss.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-29 $135.00/$134.00 put wing and $158.00/$159.00 call wing Why now: Elevated vol and mixed flow keep price between support and resistance; condor benefits from time decay.	Breakout beyond 135 or 147 leads to loss; unpredictable energy moves. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $135.00/$134.00 put spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $135/$134 put spread to collect premium targeting support.

Why this play: Dealer gamma support and put buying suggest 135 holds; selling put spread captures that view.

Credit: $0.27-$0.33

Max loss: $0.67

BE: $134.67

Mgmt: Exit if USO breaks below $135.

Traders expecting USO above $135 near-term.

Iron Condor

Sell 2026-05-29 $135.00/$134.00 put wing and $158.00/$159.00 call wing

Sell $135/$134 put and $158/$159 call wings to profit from range.

Why this play: Elevated vol and mixed flow keep price range-bound; condor benefits from time decay despite wide call wing.

Credit: $0.54-$0.65

Max loss: $0.35

BE: 134.35 / 158.65

Mgmt: Monitor for breakouts beyond $135 or $158. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders comfortable with wide wings and lower liquidity.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFUSO holds above $135 support (max pain) → Enter Put Credit Spread: sell 2026-05-29 $135/$134 put spread for $0.27-$0.33 credit.

IFUSO trades in $135-$147 range with low vol → Enter Iron Condor: sell 2026-05-29 $135/$134 put and $158/$159 call wings for $0.54-$0.65 credit. Note: lower liquidity.

Exit Triggers

EXITUSO breaks below $135 → Exit Put Credit Spread: close 2026-05-29 $135/$134 put spread.

EXITUSO breaks above $158 or below $135 → Exit Iron Condor to limit losses.

Tactical Summary

USO neutral-bullish near-term with support at $135 (max pain) and resistance at $147. Prefer put credit spread for bullish view; iron condor for range. Monitor $135 breakdown for exits.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.