Home Options USOReports

USO

United States Oil FundClose $142.04EOD only

Max Pain

$125.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.91

3.5% from close

Price Gap

-17.04

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.72

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 13, 2026 close

USO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias: bullish flow, dealer long gamma, pinning at $130-$136 support. Targets $146 (2d), $152 (1w). Risks: high vol, spot 10% above max pain.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX pinning; -1 spot distance; +1 VIX 17 -> 8/10.

Supports: Bullish flow, dealer long gamma ($30.4M GEX), gamma pinning at $130-$136.
Conflicts: High vol, spot 10% above MP, resistance $157-$158.65.

🐂Bullish flow and dealer positioning align for upward pressure.

⚠️Spot 10% above max pain $136; pullback risk if vol spikes.

📊Gamma flip at $130 offers key support; bullish above that.

🛢️Oil supply-demand dynamics support crude; USO tracks.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High volatility regime reflecting oil price swings and macro uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma pinning near $130-$136, with dealer long gamma providing support.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow with positive net premium; consistent with upside bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ($142) above max pain ($130-$136); pinning may pull spot lower but flow suggests push higher.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — No event-specific catalyst; persistent oil volatility and structural dealer positioning support multi-week horizon.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$139.59$146.41

Range $139.59-$146.41; support gamma pinning, target high end.

Next 1 week

$133.36$152.64

Range $133.36-$152.64; bullish flow, gamma at $136 support.

Next 2 weeks

$127.35$158.65

Range $127.35-$158.65; key support $130 gamma flip, resistance $158.65.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $130 (2026-05-15); $136 (2026-05-20); $131 (2026-05-22)

EM guardrails: 2d $139.59/$146.41; 1w $133.36/$152.64

Support: $130.00 · $127.35

Resistance: $157.00 · $158.65

Gamma flip: ~$130.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,137 (9.1% below spot)

Structural: Max pain: $130 (5/15), $136 (5/20), $131 (5/22). EM guardrails: 2d $139.59/$146.41; 1w $133.36/$152.64. Support: $130, $127.35. Resistance: $157, $158.65. Gamma flip ~$130.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+30.4M

DEX: +40.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$130 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,137 (9.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma ($30.4M), long delta (40.1M shares); gamma flip near $130 (put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: USO IV elevated vs VIX due to oil-specific volatility; implies heightened risk premium.

Term structure: Term structure contango typical for USO; near-term expiries may show event kinks around OPEC meetings.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling puts at $130 gamma flip for premium capture.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $104M positive, call vol ratio 0.78 but put OI 1.82, mixed bullish flow.

Directional prints: 68.4 call 170 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 13,288 vs OI 3,772 (3.5x), aggressive call buying for upside. 65.3 call 142 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol 6,636 vs OI 187 (35.5x), high ratio, bullish call buying. 66.9 put 124.5 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol 1,005 vs OI 120 (8.4x), put buying as hedge or bearish bet.

Unusual: 397.3 call 83 ITM 2026-05-15 — Deep ITM call, extreme IV 397%, vol 917 vs OI 110, likely closing. 416.4 call 78 ITM 2026-05-15 — Deep ITM call, extreme IV 416%, vol 923 vs OI 111, similar closing. 71.4 put 118 OTM 2026-05-29 — Put vol 701 vs OI 108 (6.5x), elevated OTM put activity.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $130 gamma flip leads to dealer hedging and further downside.

!Sudden VIX spike from macro shock would increase put demand, pressuring spot.

!Oil supply increase or demand shock could reverse bullish flow.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $146.00/$164.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk debit spread to capture multi-week bullish move.	Time decay if move delayed; max loss limited to debit paid. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; short_call: Volume below 5.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-18 $154.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $128.00 put Why now: Captures bullish skew and term structure; net premium may be small.	Unlimited downside if stock drops sharply; short put obligates purchase. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $130.00/$122.50 put spread Why now: Dealer long gamma at 130-136 support; sell put spread below that zone.	Loss if stock breaks below short strike; max loss limited to spread width. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $146.00/$164.00 call spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $146/$164 call spread for multi-week upside.

Why this play: Defined risk capturing bullish momentum with support at 130.

Debit: $4.79-$5.86

Max loss: $5.86

BE: $151.86

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below 130 or targets reached. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; short_call: Volume below 5.

Directional traders seeking capped risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $130.00/$122.50 put spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $130/$122.5 put spread for income near support.

Why this play: Sells puts below dealer gamma support at 130, collecting premium.

Credit: $1.54-$1.88

Max loss: $5.62

BE: $128.12

Mgmt: Close if spot falls below 130; roll if needed. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Income-focused traders expecting consolidation.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-06-18 $154.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $128.00 put

Buy $154 call / sell $128 put for leveraged bullish view.

Why this play: Unlimited upside with skew capture, but higher risk.

Debit: $2.47-$3.02

Max loss: $128.00

BE: $128.00

Mgmt: Monitor delta; close if spot nears 130. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.

Aggressive traders with high conviction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF USO holds above $130 support for 1-2 days → THEN buy 2026-06-18 $146/$164 bull call spread for 4.79-5.86 debit.

IFIF USO consolidates above $130 → THEN sell 2026-06-05 $130/$122.5 put credit spread for 1.54-1.88 credit.

IFIF USO breaks above $139.59 (2d EM upper) → THEN enter bullish risk reversal: buy $154 call / sell $128 put.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF USO closes below $130 → THEN close all bullish positions.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with support at $130. Dealer long gamma supports pinning. Targets $146-$152. Risk: break below $130 triggers dealer hedging. Prefer bull call spread or put credit spread near support. Risk reversal for aggressive.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.