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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.85EOD only

Max Pain

$410.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.23

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-7.85

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

TSLA Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 21, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.6% from MP

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

IV 59.1% — extremely elevated

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Steep front-end contango: 2d IV 48.5% vs 7d IV 40.8% (~7.7 vol-point differential), humps at 2d and 18d

💰Rich IV favors premium sellers — collect high theta decay

📈Front-end IV spike (48.5% 2d) creates reverse calendar spread opportunities

⚠️High IV also implies elevated volatility risk — use defined-risk spreads

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below by 4.6% (spot $352.82 vs max pain $370)

GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$63.1M)

OI concentrations: Call walls at $400-$500 (massive OI), put floor at $230 (22K OI), near-term put cluster at $330 (3K OI)

Verdict: Unfavorable — negative GEX and spot below max pain increase risk of downward acceleration; pinning unlikely

Premium Opportunities

reverse calendar spread

Buy $360 call 2026-04-08 (2 DTE), sell $360 call 2026-04-13 (7 DTE)

Exploits steep front-end IV differential (48.5% vs 40.8%, ~7.7 vol points) for volatility crush as near-term uncertainty resolves; $360 is near spot with high liquidity; expected move supports front-loaded risk (2d ±2.8% vs 7d ±4.5%).

Credit: $1.20-$1.50

Max loss: $3.80

BE: 358.50-361.80 (depends on exact prices)

Mgmt: Close when front option expires or IV differential collapses; exit if spot moves beyond $355-$365; target 50-70% of max credit

put spread

Sell $340/$330 put spread 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)

High IV (49.7%) provides rich credit; $330 is strong near-term put OI cluster (3K OI) offering support; within 1w EM lower bound ($336.92).

Credit: $1.65-$1.85

Max loss: $8.15

BE: $338.35

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit if spot closes below $336.92 (1w EM lower); roll only if credit >50% of original

iron condor

Sell $340/$330P x $380/$390C 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)

Captures high IV across both sides; wings set outside 1w EM range ($336.92-$368.72) for buffer; call wing uses $380/$390 where OI clusters (2.6K/1.8K OI) act as resistance.

Credit: $2.20-$2.60

Max loss: $7.40

BE: 332.40/387.60

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; manage leg at risk if spot tests either short strike; avoid holding through earnings

cash-secured put

Sell $340 put 2026-05-01 (25 DTE)

High IV (47.9%) yields substantial premium; strike is below 1w EM lower bound ($336.92) and near put OI cluster; acceptable for capital-secured sellers.

Credit: $8.50-$9.50

Max loss: $331.50

BE: $331.50

Mgmt: Roll down/out if spot approaches $340; close at 70% profit; be prepared to take assignment below breakeven

Risk Alerts

!Earnings on 2026-04-22 (16 days out) — close all short premium positions before announcement to avoid IV crush and gap risk

!Negative GEX (-$63.1M) indicates trending regime — price moves may accelerate, increasing risk for naked or wide spreads

!Spot $352.82 is 4.6% below max pain $370 — downward magnetic pull increases pin risk to the downside

!Massive call OI walls at $400-$500 — if rally accelerates, those strikes could act as strong resistance but also trap upside

!High IV (59.1%) — while favorable for selling, also implies elevated volatility; be prepared for larger price swings

!Front-end IV spike (48.5% 2d) — reverse calendar spreads rely on IV differential collapse; monitor for early resolution of near-term uncertainty

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.