thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $84.99EOD only
Max Pain
$86.00
Next expiry May 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.33
0.4% from close
Price Gap
+1.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
54
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.65
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
TLT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Sustained price above $81 and continued call buying in near-term strikes.
Invalidation: Sustained break below $78 or emergence of put flow dominance.
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot 0.8% from MP; +1 VIX 18

Watch next session: $81 call; $84 call; $80.50 call

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$16.9M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.71

P/C OI ratio: 0.66

TLT sees heavy call buying across near-term strikes with net premium +$16.9M. Regime confirms bullish flow. Unusual prints focus on May 15/22 $80-$84 calls. No gamma flip risk. P/C ratio supports bullish sentiment.

Notable Prints

#1
TLT 2026-05-22 $80.50 Call
Vol: 18,915
OI: 135
Vol/OI: 140.1x
IV: 27.9%
Notional: ~$8.4M
Intent: Bullish short-term

Read-through:

#2
TLT 2026-05-22 $81.00 Call
Vol: 13,612
OI: 143
Vol/OI: 95.2x
IV: 23.9%
Notional: ~$5.3M
Intent: Bullish

Read-through:

#3
TLT 2027-03-19 $80.00 Put
Vol: 27,789
OI: 372
Vol/OI: 74.7x
IV: 12.8%
Notional: ~$5.3M
Intent: Hedge or bearish

Read-through:

#4
TLT 2026-06-26 $87.00 Call
Vol: 25,125
OI: 455
Vol/OI: 55.2x
IV: 10.3%
Notional: ~$1.1M
Intent: Bullish OTM

Read-through:

#5
TLT 2026-05-22 $80.00 Call
Vol: 9,500
OI: 211
Vol/OI: 45.0x
IV: 28.4%
Notional: ~$4.7M
Intent: Bullish

Read-through:

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Heavy call buying in May weekly $80-84 strikes and long-dated $87, $110

Put additions: Isolated long-dated put at $80 (2027)

GEX/DEX consistency: Bullish flow aligns with positive DEX, but negative GEX indicates dealer short gamma

OI clusters: Largest OI at $84C (2328) and $110C (762)

Hedging evidence: Long-dated put may hedge tail risk

Max pain context: Spot near max pain, pinning likely

Signal vs Noise

~Call sweeps at $80-81 show genuine accumulation
~Long-dated $87 and $110 calls are speculative

Key Conclusions

📊TLT heavy call buying with spot at max pain; dealer short gamma could amplify moves
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.