thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.74EOD only
Max Pain
$86.50
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.55
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-0.24
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
0.62
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 22, 2026 close
TLT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Large positive GEX (+$763M), bullish flow/Dex, concentrated unusual call prints and pinning regime near MP
Invalidation: Sustained TLT weakness with rising VIX or rapid move past gamma flip (~85) driven by put buying or heavy selling
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

Watch next session: Spot vs MP movement and whether pin holds; VIX moves >+3-5 pts or sudden vol skew shift; Unusual put prints or surge in put OI near flip

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$12.2M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.58

P/C OI ratio: 0.63

Flow is bullish/pinning: positive GEX, call-heavy unusual prints concentrated above spot, low vol regime; risk if VIX spikes or spot breaches gamma flip level.

Notable Prints

#1
TLT 2026-04-27 $83.50 Call
Vol: 6,924
OI: 178
Vol/OI: 38.9x
IV: 25.9%
Notional: ~$2.2M
Intent: buy
Dual read: hedge

Read-through: bullish

#2
TLT 2026-04-29 $82.50 Call
Vol: 3,622
OI: 118
Vol/OI: 30.7x
IV: 27.1%
Notional: ~$1.5M
Intent: buy
Dual read: hedge

Read-through: bullish

#3
TLT 2026-04-27 $84.00 Call
Vol: 4,231
OI: 160
Vol/OI: 26.4x
IV: 21.9%
Notional: ~$1.1M
Intent: buy
Dual read: hedge

Read-through: bullish

#4
TLT 2026-05-15 $92.50 Call
Vol: 1,190
OI: 108
Vol/OI: 11.0x
IV: 15.4%
Notional: ~$6K
Intent: spec
Dual read: spread

Read-through: bullish

#5
TLT 2026-05-08 $98.00 Call
Vol: 1,206
OI: 127
Vol/OI: 9.5x
IV: 24.2%
Notional: ~$1K
Intent: spec
Dual read: spread

Read-through: bullish

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Concentrated short-dated calls centered ~81–84 (Apr27–Apr29); some longer-dated call interest 87–98.

Put additions: Smaller put activity vs calls; isolated puts around 87.5 (May15) — protective put coverage appears limited.

GEX/DEX consistency: GEX and DEX are positive, which is consistent with net call exposure, but causality to spot pinning is uncertain amid other market drivers.

OI clusters: Largest OI sits in the low-80s (≈83–84); secondary clusters in mid-to-high 80s for longer expiries.

Hedging evidence: Signs of directional call buying and possible call selling; little clear evidence of broad collaring—hedges appear incomplete.

Max pain context: Max Pain sits near the low-80s; flows and positive GEX could contribute to pinning pressure but outcomes remain sensitive to volatility and order flow shifts.

Signal vs Noise

~Signal: concentrated short-dated call prints at 81–84 indicating focal exposure
~Signal: positive GEX/DEX align with call-heavy positioning but don’t guarantee pin
~Noise: limited put hedges and isolated block trades increase uncertainty
~Noise: market volatility and external catalysts could outweigh flow signals

Key Conclusions

📌Call-heavy institutional footprint suggests potential pin pressure in low-80s, but linkage to spot is probabilistic given other market forces.
⚠️Hedging appears limited; downside moves below the gamma flip (~85) could trigger rapid rehedging and elevated skew—risk not fully offset.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.