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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.76EOD only

Max Pain

$84.50

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.61

0.7% from close

Price Gap

-1.26

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

TLT Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer flow report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 6.5/10 (provided): +1 pinning GEX; +0.5 spot ~MP; -1 mixed flow vs GEX contradiction

Watch next session: Follow call flow and OI changes at $87.00 and $86.50 (gamma concentration / pin risk).; New large put prints or premium accumulation below $86 (esp. $85/$84.50 strikes) that would move net premium deeper negative.

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$4.2M bearish (net premium paid to the market)

P/C volume ratio: 0.30 — strong call-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.63 — call-lean OI but not extreme

Intraday flow shows heavy call activity (low P/C volume) concentrated around the $86.50–$89 area while aggregate net premium is slightly negative (-$4.2M). Dealers carry large positive GEX (+$1.0B) and DEX (+162.2M shares) which creates pinning pressure near $86–$87. The mixed signals (call-heavy volume vs modest negative net premium) point to positioning and gamma dynamics dominating directional conviction — price likely to remain near the $86–$87 magnet unless a clear directional block of puts or calls appears.

Notable Prints

TLT 2026-04-15 $86.50 Put

Vol: 4,984

OI: 662

Vol/OI: 7.5x

IV: 8.2%

Notional: ~$697k (4984 * $0.14 * 100)

Intent: Short-dated directional or expiration-hedge activity concentrated at the ATM area; likely protective/closing/roll activity around the April 15 expiry.

Dual read: Could be bought puts (bearish protection) or puts being sold/closed as part of option rolls into calls — ambiguous in isolation.

Read-through: High-volume ATM put on same-day expiry increases gamma pin risk at $86.50/$86.00. Given GEX positive and MP ~ $86, this print reinforces dealer pinning risk and short-dated option rotation rather than a new large directional bet.

TLT 2026-04-15 $89.50 Call

Vol: 3,476

OI: 180

Vol/OI: 19.3x

IV: 16.8%

Notional: ~$52k (3476 * $0.01 * 100) — premium small but high relative flow vs OI

Intent: Fresh speculative call buying or opening call spreads targeting short-term upside above the pin.

Dual read: Small notional suggests retail/spec flow; could also be market-makers scaling positions for client flows.

Read-through: Concentrated call flow OTM at $89.50 shows speculative upside interest but not large enough to shift dealer hedges materially; supports call-volume skew but is noise for institutional directional positioning.

TLT 2026-04-22 $87.50 Call

Vol: 3,352

OI: 481

Vol/OI: 7.0x

IV: 9.1%

Notional: ~$737k (3352 * $0.22 * 100)

Intent: Directional call opening (bullish exposure) or leg of a short-dated calendar/diagonal into the 4/22 expiry.

Dual read: Could be fresh call buys (bullish) or sellers taking the other side as an expiration roll from 4/15; context from sellers needed.

Read-through: Meaningful notional and proximity to spot suggest buyers are layering call exposure near the dealer gamma flip — if sustained, this will increase dealer short-delta as TLT approaches $87.50 and strengthen the pin around $87.

TLT 2026-04-20 $86.50 Call (ITM)

Vol: 766

OI: 167

Vol/OI: 4.6x

IV: 8.9%

Notional: ~$47k (766 * $0.62 * 100)

Intent: Short-dated ITM call flow — could be rolling, take-profit by long-call holders, or collar adjustments for bond exposures.

Dual read: Either bullish overlay (buying ITM calls as hedge) or option sellers closing positions; low notional vs OI reduces conviction.

Read-through: Supports call-side activity concentrated right at the gamma flip, but not large enough to overpower dealer GEX; consistent with mixed flow regime.

TLT 2026-05-29 $82.50 Put

Vol: 738

OI: 143

Vol/OI: 5.2x

IV: 12.4%

Notional: ~$18k (738 * $0.25 * 100)

Intent: Long-dated put protection or speculative downside hedge well below spot.

Dual read: Could be small-scale protective buying or cheap speculative puts; OI small so high ratio is noisy.

Read-through: Indicates some longer-dated tail-hedge interest, but size is minor relative to aggregate OI — not an immediate directional signal.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Concentration of call volume and OI build around $86.50-$89.00 (notable flow at $87.00 and $87.50 expiries). Near-term call OI clusters: $87.00 (15,883 & 20,296 combined), $86.50 (6,072).

Put additions: Discrete put interest at $86.00 (5,423 OI) and $85.00 (11,655 OI) but large intraday put volume centered on immediate expiries (e.g., $86.50 on 4/15). Some longer-dated protective put interest exists (e.g., $82.50 on 5/29) but small.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — positive Total GEX (+$1.0B) and DEX (+162.2M shares) align with call-heavy volume and pinning near $86–$87; dealers are positioned to buy dips and sell strength around the gamma flip.

OI clusters: Largest OI clusters are skewed out (call OI walls at $90, $95, $100, $110) and near-term OI concentration at $87.00 (multiple expiries totaling ~36K OI across near-term strikes). Put OI clusters at $86.00 (113,897 aggregated in top OI list) and $85.00 (11,655) create a shallow protective floor.

Hedging evidence: Evidence of short-dated hedging: heavy same-week/day activity (4/15 $86.50 puts) and call buys at $87–$87.50 consistent with institutional delta-hedge adjustments and collar-like management. No large-scale, multi-strike collars visible in top flow — hedging appears concentrated in short-dated expiries.

Max pain context: Max pain is flat around ~$86 across expirations and matches the gamma flip at ~$86. Dealer GEX concentration (+$244.0M at $87.00 and +$32.3M at $86.50) increases the likelihood of pinning in the $86–$87 band.

Signal vs Noise

~4/15 concentrated $86.50 put flow likely includes expiration-related hedging/rolls — not pure directional conviction.

~Large vol/oi ratios at deep OTM strikes with tiny premiums (e.g., $89.50 calls with $0.01 last) are speculative/retail and not definitive institutional positioning.

~Several prints (ITM $86.50 calls, $87.00 calls) look like part of short-dated spreads/rolls between 4/15 and 4/20/4/22 rather than fresh directional overlays.

~Small long-dated put flows (e.g., $82.50 5/29) are low notional and likely tail-hedge/speculative, not broad-based portfolio reallocation.

Key Conclusions

📍Pin environment: dealers’ positive GEX (+$1.0B) and large GEX concentration at $87.00/$86.50 create a strong magnet in the $86–$87 band.

🔁Mixed flow: call-dominant volume (P/C vol 0.30) vs slightly negative net premium (-$4.2M) points to short-dated option rotation and dealer gamma activity rather than a clean directional trade.

⚖️Watch $87.00/$86.50 — these strikes have the largest near-term GEX and OI clusters and will determine short-term dealer flows and hedging behavior.

🐂/🐻If call buying at $87.50–$89.00 continues and net premium flips positive, dealer short-delta will increase and could push spot upward toward the upper EM [~$87.28–$87.64]. Conversely, renewed put accumulation below $86 would break the pin.

🧭Trade implication: prefer range-aware/neutral structures (short-dated iron butterflies or calendar plays centered at $86.50–$87) rather than outright directional exposure until a clear net premium or spot break confirms bias.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.