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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $83.02EOD only

Max Pain

$84.00

Next expiry May 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.55

0.7% from close

Price Gap

+0.98

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.77

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

TLT Flow Report

Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

Watch next session: Break above $84.5

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$16.1M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.11

P/C OI ratio: 0.77

Despite net put premium and higher put volume, unusual prints are overwhelmingly call-heavy. Large OTM call buys at $79, $83, $80, $77 signal aggressive bullish bets. Negative GEX suggests resistance overhead but positive DEX provides support. Flow points to bullish breakout expectation.

Notable Prints

TLT 2026-05-20 $79.00 Call

Vol: 6,066

OI: 157

Vol/OI: 38.6x

IV: 44.9%

Notional: ~$2.5M

Intent: Aggressive bullish near-term

Dual read: Possible short squeeze

Read-through: Call buying for gamma

TLT 2026-05-27 $79.00 Put

Vol: 5,170

OI: 140

Vol/OI: 36.9x

IV: 19.9%

Notional: ~$31K

Intent: Bearish hedge

Dual read: Premium collection

Read-through: Put protection

TLT 2026-05-20 $83.00 Call

Vol: 7,528

OI: 241

Vol/OI: 31.2x

IV: 11.8%

Notional: ~$211K

Intent: Bullish cheap calls

Dual read: Covered call writing

Read-through: Upside speculation

TLT 2026-05-20 $80.00 Call

Vol: 5,206

OI: 265

Vol/OI: 19.6x

IV: 40.8%

Notional: ~$1.7M

Intent: Bullish OTM calls

Dual read: Volatility play

Read-through: Directional bet

TLT 2026-05-20 $77.00 Call

Vol: 1,700

OI: 100

Vol/OI: 17.0x

IV: 62.5%

Notional: ~$1.1M

Intent: Bullish deep ITM

Dual read: Synthetic long

Read-through: High conviction

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Aggressive call buying at $79, $80, $83 (weekly) and $83 (Jan 2027), $84 (Jun) with high vol/oi ratios.

Put additions: Notable put accumulation at $79 (weekly) and $70 (Nov 2026), signaling downside protection.

GEX/DEX consistency: GEX negative (-$587.6M) aligns with spot below gamma flip at $80; DEX positive (+188.6M shares) shows net delta long.

OI clusters: Put OI concentration at $79-80 area (3.6% below spot) drives gamma flip; call OI building at $83 and above.

Hedging evidence: Put addition at $70 (far OTM) suggests tail risk hedging; call buying may be upside speculation.

Max pain context: Spot below MP (estimated near $80); gamma drag from heavy put OI below could pin price around $80.

Signal vs Noise

~High vol/oi on $79 call (38.6x) and $79 put (36.9x) are real signal; low IV put on $79 (19.9%) indicates hedging not speculation.

~Large put volume on $70 Nov (11.7x) is signal for long-term downside protection.

~Calls at $77 with high IV (62.5%) may be noise from retail speculation.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Heavy put activity near $79 and $70 signals hedging/bearish tilt. GEX negative amplifies downside sensitivity.

📈Call accumulation at $83 and Jan $83 shows bullish bets on rate cut expectations.

📊Spot below gamma flip at $80; max pain pin action likely around $80.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.