thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.28EOD only
Max Pain
$86.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.39
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-0.28
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.61
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
TLT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Large aligned call flow, +$1B GEX, pinning regime and spot above MP near short-dated 87–88 strikes
Invalidation: Spike in VIX or spot drop below gamma flip (~86) with surge in put flow or material net premium shift
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17

Watch next session: Watch 87–88 call volume/IV and roll activity; Monitor spot vs gamma_flip ~86; VIX>20 or rising put/call OI

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$10.4M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.36

P/C OI ratio: 0.61

Flow is dominantly bullish: concentrated short-dated call prints and +$1B GEX produce pinning; downside invalidated by volatility spike or spot breach of gamma flip.

Notable Prints

#1
TLT 2027-02-19 $115.00 Call
Vol: 25,005
OI: 100
Vol/OI: 250.1x
IV: 16.8%
Notional: ~$550K
Intent: Unclear flow intent

Read-through: Needs contextual interpretation.

#2
TLT 2026-04-20 $87.50 Call
Vol: 28,953
OI: 1,690
Vol/OI: 17.1x
IV: 6.4%
Notional: ~$261K
Intent: Unclear flow intent

Read-through: Needs contextual interpretation.

#3
TLT 2026-04-24 $87.50 Call
Vol: 45,165
OI: 5,848
Vol/OI: 7.7x
IV: 8.4%
Notional: ~$1.1M
Intent: Unclear flow intent

Read-through: Needs contextual interpretation.

#4
TLT 2026-04-20 $89.50 Call
Vol: 2,323
OI: 323
Vol/OI: 7.2x
IV: 12.9%
Notional: ~$2K
Intent: Unclear flow intent

Read-through: Needs contextual interpretation.

#5
TLT 2026-04-20 $87.00 Put
Vol: 3,546
OI: 500
Vol/OI: 7.1x
IV: 6.7%
Notional: ~$71K
Intent: Unclear flow intent

Read-through: Needs contextual interpretation.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Concentrated short-dated calls 87–89 (Apr 20–24), notable cluster at 87.5–88; single long-dated call print at 115 (2027) of modest size, likely strategic rather than driving near-term flow.

Put additions: Notable puts around 60 (Jul) and short-dated puts spanning 76–86 with lower volume versus calls; put OI cluster roughly ~1.2k near these strikes.

GEX/DEX consistency: Flow leans bullish and GEX/DEX alignment supports potential pinning above spot, but effect is time- and expiry-sensitive and not determinative.

OI clusters: Largest OI concentrations at 87.5–88 (4k–5k OI); smaller put OI cluster ~1.2k near gamma flip ~1.2% below spot.

Hedging evidence: Short-dated collars/covered-call footprints visible; modest protective long-dated puts present but limited relative to call flow.

Max pain context: Max pain aligns near heavy call strikes ~87.5–88; near-term pinning is possible given flows and GEX/DEX but depends on expiry roll dynamics.

Signal vs Noise

~Signal: concentrated 87.5–88 short-dated call OI with heavy prints.
~Signal: GEX + DEX alignment supports potential pinning but is expiry/time sensitive.
~Noise: single long-dated 115 (2027) call of modest size—likely strategic/sweep rather than primary driver.

Key Conclusions

📌Short-dated call build at 87.5–88 plus GEX/DEX supports potential near-term pin, sensitive to expiry timing.
🛡️Protective long-dated puts exist but are modest vs call flow—hedging limited.
⚖️Gamma flip ~1.2% below spot with concentrated OI keeps downside sensitivity intact.

Read the Flow analysis for TLT for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.