thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $84.22EOD only
Max Pain
$85.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.54
0.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.78
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
TLT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Continued large call buying, spot holds above gamma flip 80.
Invalidation: Breakdown below 80 gamma flip with heavy put accumulation.
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17

Watch next session: Monitor TLT 2026-12-18 $81C and 2027-04-16 $88C activity

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$4.2M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.58

P/C OI ratio: 0.76

Strong bullish flow: heavy long-dated call buying, net premium positive, low put/call ratio. Gamma pinning near spot. VIX low supports. Confidence high. Confirmation requires sustained call buying; invalidation if spot breaks below $80.

Notable Prints

#1
TLT 2026-12-18 $81.00 Call
Vol: 2,000
OI: 112
Vol/OI: 17.9x
IV: 12.0%
Notional: ~$946K
Intent: Bullish long call

Read-through: Institutional buying

#2
TLT 2027-04-16 $88.00 Call
Vol: 1,921
OI: 130
Vol/OI: 14.8x
IV: 11.8%
Notional: ~$423K
Intent: Bullish speculation

Read-through: Long-dated upside

#3
TLT 2026-05-22 $76.00 Call
Vol: 4,730
OI: 890
Vol/OI: 5.3x
IV: 68.0%
Notional: ~$3.3M
Intent: Closing position
Dual read: Near-term bullish

Read-through: Large expiry trade

#4
TLT 2026-05-27 $85.50 Call
Vol: 4,208
OI: 798
Vol/OI: 5.3x
IV: 10.3%
Notional: ~$38K
Intent: Speculative cheap call

Read-through: Lottery ticket

#5
TLT 2027-05-21 $80.00 Put
Vol: 891
OI: 183
Vol/OI: 4.9x
IV: 13.5%
Notional: ~$233K
Intent: Hedging
Dual read: Bearish speculation

Read-through: Long-dated protection

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Heavy long-dated call volume (Dec '26 $81, Apr '27 $88) and short-term weekly calls ($76, $80.5-$82) signal bullish institutional positioning.

Put additions: Modest put additions at longer expirations (May '27 $80, Feb '27 $82) suggest tactical hedging.

GEX/DEX consistency: Consistent: positive GEX ($358M) and DEX (+192M shares) align with bullish flow.

OI clusters: Largest OI clusters near $80 (gamma flip level) and $82, with put OI concentration of 92,604 at $80.

Hedging evidence: Hedging via put additions at $80 and $82 strikes, likely collaring upside.

Max pain context: Spot near max pain (MP) suggests pinning; gamma flip at $80 reinforces support.

Signal vs Noise

~Signal: Long-dated call accumulation and high volume in the $80-$82 strikes; short-term $76 calls with 68% IV are noise.
~Signal: Put hedging at $80-$82 is real; low IV in far-dated puts hints at protective rather than speculative.
~Noise: Low OI changes in some contracts; weekly call volume may be speculative.

Key Conclusions

📈Institutions are aggressively adding long-dated calls, betting on a bond rally.
📌Gamma pinning near $80 with spot at MP; likely to hold until expiration.
🛡️Put hedging at $80-$82 suggests caution, but overall flow remains bullish.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.