thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.76EOD only
Max Pain
$84.50
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.61
0.7% from close
Price Gap
-1.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
13
Low premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
TLT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer flow report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

BiasNeutral-to-bullish
Confirmation: Spot holds ≥ $87.00 into the next TLT expirations while net premium shifts to positive (sustained call net premium at/above current $3.12M at $87 and call volume dominance persists).
Invalidation: Price drops below the $86.00–$86.50 zone with rising put premium and P/C volume ratio rising above ~1.0 (confirming fresh directional put demand).
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict (net premium -$8.7M); +1 spot 0.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.4

Watch next session: New call premium or OI buildup at $87.00–$88.00 (near-term pin/gex concentrations).; Put flow and premium movement at $86.00 / $86.50 (pin/gamma flip area) — watch for dealer-induced buying or put-heavy selling

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$8.7M — slight bearish premium at aggregate level

P/C volume ratio: 0.59 — call-dominant today (calls outvolume puts ~41% more)

P/C OI ratio: 0.61 — OI skewed modestly to calls (moderate call lean in positioning)

Flow is mixed: intraday and near-term activity skew toward calls (notably at $87/$88) while aggregated premium is modestly negative (-$8.7M), indicating some larger put premium flows elsewhere or heavier put purchases at other strikes/expirations. Dealers sit with large positive GEX (+$1.3B) and concentrated gamma around $86–$87, which tends to magnetize spot near those strikes unless significant directional put demand materializes.

Notable Prints

#1
TLT260422C00087000 CALL $87.00 exp 2026-04-22
Vol: 4,373
OI: 300
Vol/OI: 14.6x
IV: 9.9%
Notional: ~$271,126
Intent: Directional call buying / short-dated bullish exposure into next-week expirations
Dual read: Fresh buys (bullish) OR dealer/issuer selling to create short-dated negative gamma (could be overwritten existing shares).

Read-through: High relative volume at the $87 strike (near the pin) reinforces near-term call demand and adds to dealer gamma concentration at $87, increasing pinning pressure there.

#2
TLT260422P00087000 PUT $87.00 exp 2026-04-22
Vol: 3,066
OI: 280
Vol/OI: 10.9x
IV: 7.8%
Notional: ~$101,178
Intent: Protective puts or short-dated hedges (buyers of downside protection) or part of a two-sided strategy around the expiry
Dual read: Bought puts (bearish/hedge) OR sold puts to facilitate call buys (synthetic structures).

Read-through: Paired high activity in both the $87 call and put suggests expiry-sensitive positioning/straddling around the gamma flip; not pure directional flow but increases dealer hedging dynamics at the pin.

#3
TLT260508C00092500 CALL $92.50 exp 2026-05-08
Vol: 5,577
OI: 301
Vol/OI: 18.5x
IV: 13.4%
Notional: ~$33,462
Intent: Long-dated directional call accumulation (bullish out-of-the-money call buying)
Dual read: Fresh speculative call buys (bullish) OR small structured buys into larger packages (e.g., call spreads financed elsewhere).

Read-through: High volume vs small OI indicates new long speculative positioning targeting higher rates move (low IV environment makes long calls cheaper), but not large institutional notional vs overall market.

#4
TLT260420C00088000 CALL $88.00 exp 2026-04-20
Vol: 4,621
OI: 994
Vol/OI: 4.6x
IV: 8.4%
Notional: ~$55,452
Intent: Near-term directional call buying at one tick above spot (bullish tilt into the 4/20 expiry)
Dual read: Fresh long calls (bullish) OR covered call issuance by dealers hedging inventory.

Read-through: Adds to the cluster of short-dated call demand at $87–$88; supports short-term upside friction and dealer delta buying if calls are bought.

#5
TLT260422C00090000 CALL $90.00 exp 2026-04-22
Vol: 601
OI: 181
Vol/OI: 3.3x
IV: 12.5%
Notional: ~$2,404
Intent: Speculative OTM call interest — small-sized directional exposure
Dual read: Spec buys (bullish) OR small spread leg in structures.

Read-through: Minor in notional terms; confirms tendency for some participants to buy cheap OTM upside, but not market-moving by itself.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: $87.00-$88.00 near-term strikes (heavy volume) and structural call OI wall out at $92-$110 (large OI anchors); longer-dated OTM call buying at $92.50 (5/8) shows speculative/income strategy activity.

Put additions: Notable put OI concentrated at $86.00 (111,992 OI) and $85.00 (49,803 OI) — evidence institutions maintain protective put exposure around the gamma flip and max pain levels.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — positive Total GEX (+$1.3B) and concentrated near-term GEX at $87.00 (+$294.2M) align with call-heavy intraday flow and the pinning regime, even though net premium is slightly negative.

OI clusters: $86.00 put cluster (111,992 OI) and $86.00/$87.00 call clusters (90,797 / 78,581 OI) create a tight pin/wall around $86–$87; larger call walls at $90–$100 and structural $92–$110 act as upside resistance by volume.

Hedging evidence: Dealers are likely long gamma around $86–$87 and will buy/sell duration to hedge short-dated call activity; presence of large put OI at $86 suggests protective positioning from institutions and dealer delta hedging concentrated within the gamma flip band.

Max pain context: Max pain is flat near $86–$86.50 across expirations; combined with large GEX at $87 and dealer positive gamma, market structure favors pinning near the $86–$87 zone absent a decisive directional flow.

Signal vs Noise

~Paired high volume at $87 call and $87 put (4/22) looks expiry-sensitive (straddle/roll or gamma harvesting) — likely short-dated positioning rather than pure directional conviction.
~Large relative volume on May $92.50 calls (5,577 vol vs 301 OI) is new speculative/position initiation in small notional (~$33k) and may be part of spreads — treat as low conviction on its own.
~Many tiny notional prints (e.g., long-dated $115 calls, $115 IV high) are thin speculative flow / structured legs — not clear directional drivers.
~Dealer inventory adjustments are probable given concentrated GEX near the pin; some call prints may be market-maker rebalancing rather than pure client directional buys.

Key Conclusions

📌Pin & gamma concentration between $86.00 and $87.00 — dealers have +$1.3B GEX with largest single GEX at $87.00 (+$294.2M). Expect pinning pressure around spot.
📈Near-term flow shows call dominance (P/C vol 0.59) with concentrated activity at $87/$88 — short-dated bullish tilt that would induce dealer delta buying and support spot if sustained.
⚖️Aggregate net premium is slightly negative (-$8.7M) indicating offsetting put demand elsewhere — overall flow is mixed; watch whether puts re-accelerate into $86 support to invalidate the bullish tilt.
🧭Key levels to monitor: support band $86.00 / $86.50 / $87.00 (gamma flip / max pain / gex); resistance at $88.00 and the structural call wall beginning ~$92.00.
🔎High vol-to-OI prints at near-term strikes (especially $87 call/put) are likely expiry/hedge related — interpret paired call+put activity as gamma/expiry flows rather than unequivocal directional conviction.
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This flow reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
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