base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Term structure: Front-end elevated (2d ATM 63%); backwardated; long-dated ~66%
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+102.6M)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,071 (13.3% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put floor $10-$15 (71K OI); call wall $19-$25; max pain pins to $17 near-term
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $15.00/$14.00 put spread
Sell $15/$14 put spread for rich credit with gamma flip protection.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or spot below $17.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $15.00/$14.00 put wing and $19.00/$20.00 call wing
Sell $15/$14 put and $19/$20 call wings for net credit.
Mgmt: Manage at 50% profit; adjust if spot tests wings.
#3Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-07-31 $15.00 cash-secured put
Sell $15 put for $0.50 credit with assignment risk.
Mgmt: Monitor assignment; roll or close at 50% profit.
!Macro drag from SPY/QQQ weakness
!Gamma flip at $15; break below accelerates selling
!High vol persistence raises tail risk; monitor for volatility expansion