base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP (pre-computed)
Term structure: Front-week IV is elevated (2d ATM 68.2%; 9d/16d ~59-60%) with a lift into the 3-6 week window (23d ATM 74.5%). This creates rich short-week and 30D premium pockets; weekly defined-risk spreads are appropriate.
Spot vs MP: Above (spot $16.49 vs max pain $16.00 on 2026-04-10; MP trend rising to $17 on later expirations)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$95.6M concentrated at nearby strikes: +$29.7M at $17.00, +$26.2M at $16.50)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Gamma flip near ~$15 — below $15 dealers switch to negative gamma behavior and downside acceleration risk increases.
OI concentrations: Call walls at $22 (89,153 OI) and $19 (88,847 OI); put floor concentrated at $15.00 (71,340 OI) and $16.00 (56,875 OI). Strong pin magnets at $16.50 and $17.00.
#1put spread
Sell $16 / Buy $15 put spread 2026-04-17 (9 DTE)
High IV + pinning (GEX concentrations at $16.50/$17) — short-dated defined-risk put spread captures rich front-week premium while staying inside the dealer pin range. Uses weekly defined-risk spread which is appropriate in this high-IV environment.
Mgmt: Take profit at 65% of max credit collected (~$0.08 residual or better); roll down and out if price closes below $16 to the next weekly with reduced risk; close/flip if price < $15.50 intraday or below gamma flip ~$15.
#2iron condor (defined-risk)
Sell $17C / Buy $18C and Sell $15P / Buy $14.50P 2026-04-17 (9 DTE)
Front-week iron condor collects both elevated call and put premium while benefiting from the pinning regime (GEX + at 16.50/17.00). Short strikes sit near max pain and OI clusters, improving probability of decay inside the wings.
Mgmt: Take profit at 50-65% of max available; tighten or close if spot tests either short strike (close the side being tested); if spot falls below $15.00 (gamma flip) close both sides.
#3covered call
Buy stock $16.49 and Sell $17.50 call 2026-04-24 (16 DTE)
Pinning toward $17 and rising max pain (next week expirations centered at $17) make selling near-the-money short-dated calls attractive for income while owning the stock. Call OI cluster at $17 and GEX magnets create higher chance of assignment near $17 short-dates.
Mgmt: Close for 50-75% of max profit if stock rallies toward $17.50; if stock falls below $15.50 consider buyback of calls to avoid assignment or roll down to a lower strike same or later expiry; avoid holding through a close below gamma flip ~$15.
#4put spread (slightly wider, multi-week)
Sell $15 / Buy $14 put spread 2026-04-24 (16 DTE)
Provides a lower-put floor trade to collect premium further down the put-side while staying inside the expected 2-week range ($14.86 - $18.12). Good as a lower-probability, higher-protection alternative to selling naked puts.
Mgmt: Take profit at 60% of max credit; roll out/widthen if price grinds toward $15; cut losses or close if price closes below $15.00 (gamma flip/put floor).
!Gamma flip at ~$15.00 — below this point dealer behavior flips and downside can accelerate; exit or reduce short-dated credit below this level.
!Max pain and GEX magnets concentrated at $16.50-$17.00 — positions betting on pin should be managed if price moves away quickly (fast rallies can test call strikes).
!Earnings scheduled 2026-04-28 and 2026-04-29 (within 3 weeks) — avoid naked short options across earnings; favor defined-risk or close before the event.
!IV is elevated (Avg IV 72.9%) but term bump into ~23d (ATM 74.5%) — weekly defined-risk trades are acceptable; be cautious selling naked beyond 30-45 DTE without hedges.
!Unusual activity: concentrated May 01 $17 puts (OI 1,554, Vol 10,290) — watch for institutional directional positioning into early May which could skew flows.