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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.62EOD only
Max Pain
$16.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.78
5.0% from close
Price Gap
+0.38
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
68
High premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

High-confidence pinning setup into late-April earnings (next prints 2026-04-28/29). Best strategy: premium-selling / defined-risk iron (collect credit into the $15.20–$17.34 1-week EM band) or a small directional call-spread if you expect upside guided by heavy call flow. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 1-week expected move (~±$1.07) producing a fast unwind against dealer hedges.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP
Most important: Watch IV term structure and call-heavy premium flow into $17 (large net call premium) — it both pins near-term and creates asymmetric upside exposure if guidance surprises.
📌Max pain near-term is $16 (2026-04-10) moving to $17 (4/17 & 4/24) — dealers are incentivized to pin inside $15–$17.
🔥Net call premium into $17 and very large OI at $19/$22 — upside flow is concentrated and could fuel short-squeeze leg if guidance is strong.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Gamma flip near $15 (put OI concentration 71,279; 7.8% below spot) — below this, dealers amplify moves

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (19 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (15d): : : :
  • 2026-05-01 (22d):

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV: 2026-04-10 = 60.0%, 2026-04-17 = 54.5%, 2026-04-24 = 54.1% then rises for later expirations (e.g., 2026-05-01 ATM = 70.6%). Term structure shows a short-term dip around the 1-2 week expirations and elevated IV farther out.

Crush estimate: ~12 vol pts, back to ~54% (ATM short-dated IV sits mid-50s; current Avg IV 75.6% is driven by longer-dated premium and recent flow)

Skew: Call-heavy premium flow (notably large $17/$19/$22 call interest and net call premium) — skew is call-rich into upside strikes while put OI concentrates near $15-$16.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided in dataset

Directional bias: Tends to gap up on beats (historical EPS surprises have been positive across the last four quarters)

Key Levels

1$16.00 (max pain 2026-04-10, large put OI concentrated)
2$15.00 (put floor / gamma flip vicinity)
3$15.82-$16.72 (EM 2d guardrails)
4$16.50 (GEX concentration +$25.1M, pin magnet)
5$17.00 (max pain 2026-04-17, GEX +$23.4M, heavy call OI)
6$15.20-$17.34 (EM 1w guardrails)

Flow Highlights

Large net call premium into $17 ($1,546,028 call vs $989,849 put; net $556,178) and heavy OI at $19/$22 (91,260 and 89,010 OI).

Buy-side is positioned for upside; dealers are long gamma on the $16.50/$17.00 concentrations which increases pinning and makes sharp upside gaps more painful for shorts.

Significant put OI at $16.00 (56,644 OI) and $15.00 (71,279 OI).

Dealer hedging around these strikes creates support/pin pressure between $15–$16, reinforcing the near-term range.

Strategies

1-week iron condor (defined-risk premium sell)
Sell 16.00P / Buy 15.00P and Sell 17.00C / Buy 18.00C — expiration: 2026-04-24
Credit: $0.40-$0.55
Max loss: $45.00
Max gain: $46.00
BE: Lower BE: 16.00 - credit (~15.55) / Upper BE: 17.00 + credit (~17.55)
Trigger: Enter 3-7 days before earnings if IV remains elevated and credit >$0.40
High GEX pinning at 16.50/17.00 and concentrated put OI near $15–$16 supports range selling; defined risk limits gap exposure while capturing rich short-term premium.
Outperforms: Stock stays inside the 1-week EM band ($15.20–$17.34) and IV decays into expiry
Underperforms: Guidance-driven gap moves stock outside EM by >~1.5x or IV jumps sharply on news
Long near-ATM straddle (directional / volatility play)
Buy 16.50C + Buy 16.50P — expiration: 2026-04-24
Debit: $1.30-$1.60
Max loss: $160.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 16.50 : Lower/Upper ~ 16.50
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV has not already popped; use smaller size given high IV and pinning
Captures asymmetric payoff for a guidance-driven surprise; expensive but necessary if you expect a move beyond the EM bands.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds straddle cost (move > ~9–10% from spot given the debit) or a large IV spike post-release
Underperforms: Stock pins at $16–$17 and IV collapses back to mid-50s (expected crush ~12 vol pts)
Bull call spread (tilt to upside while capping cost)
Buy 16.00C / Sell 18.00C — expiration: 2026-04-24
Debit: $0.65-$0.80
Max loss: $80.00
Max gain: $120.00
BE: $16.65
Trigger: Enter into call-heavy flow or if you expect a beat/guidance beat; best entered 3-7 days before event
Lower cost than a straddle, uses concentrated call OI and heavy call flow to capture upside while limiting premium paid.
Outperforms: Moderate upside (to ~$18) post-earnings without extreme IV collapse; benefits from dealer short-delta re-hedges if stock moves up
Underperforms: Stock remains stuck under $17 and IV collapses; large gap-down events will hurt the long leg

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Guidance-driven gap can exceed the 1-week EM ($±$1.07) — iron condors still vulnerable to >1.5x EM moves.
!IV crush: Estimated ~12 vol-pt drop back to ~54% post-event; long volatility positions will face IV decay even if directional move occurs.
!Liquidity: Good OI at key strikes (16/17/19/22) but width/entry fills can be poor at off-mid prices; use limit orders.
!Sizing: Favor smaller size on long-vol trades (straddles) due to high Avg IV 75.6% and pinning; sellers can size up modestly but keep defined risk.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the two weeks before earnings (watch 4/17 and 4/24 ATM IVs: 54.5% and 54.1%)
?Unusual call buying at $17/$19/$22 and net call premium flows (could drive upside pinning or fast gamma squeezes)
?Dealer GEX at $16.50/$17.00 (pin magnets) and any early moves toward/away from $15 gamma flip
?Upcoming guidance headlines or analyst talk that could reprice the 1-week EM rapidly
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.