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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.65EOD only
Max Pain
$15.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.40
2.5% from close
Price Gap
-0.15
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
40
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/28-4/29 (23-24 days out). IV elevated (71.9% avg), term structure shows a kink at 5/01 (70.6% vs 62% pre), confirming earnings timing. Strong pinning forces (GEX +$54M) and bullish flow (P/C vol 0.37) support selling premium within the expected move.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP
Most important: IV term structure kink at 5/01 confirms earnings date; strong pinning and bullish flow make short premium strategies attractive.
📅Earnings expected 4/28-4/29 (23-24 days out), confirmed by IV kink at 5/01
📊100% EPS beat rate historically, but no price move data available

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 71.9%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$54.0M)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$2.0M, P/C vol 0.37)
Spot vs MP
Above (spot $16.27 vs max pain $16-$17)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Below $15, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (23 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/24 (18d): ±$1.79 (11.0%)
  • 5/01 (25d): ±$2.39 (14.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Kink at 5/01 (70.6% vs 62% pre), elevated vs longer-dated (65-67%)

Crush estimate: ~8-10 vol pts, back to ~62%

Skew: Puts slightly richer than calls (P/C OI 0.56)

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No price move data provided

Directional bias: No price move data provided

Key Levels

1$17.00 (pin magnet, +4.5% from spot)
2$16.50 (pin magnet, +1.4% from spot)
3$15.00 (put floor, -7.8% from spot)
4$18.00 (call OI wall, +10.6% from spot)

Flow Highlights

Heavy $17.00 call buying (4/10: 32,648 vol vs 20,358 OI; 4/17: 5,574 vol vs 39,604 OI)

Near-term upside bets, aligning with pin magnet at $17.00

Large $19.00 call OI (88,624) and $22.00 call OI (87,947) clusters

Longer-term bullish positioning, creating resistance walls

Strategies

Iron condor (sell premium)
Sell $14.50/$15.00P x $18.00/$18.50C 5/01
Credit: $0.35-$0.45
Max loss: $0.65
Max gain: $0.35
BE: $14.85
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings
Strong pinning (GEX +$54M) and bullish flow support range-bound move; IV crush post-earnings benefits short premium.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $15.00-$18.00 (within EM bounds)
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >50% (below $14.50 or above $18.50)
Long straddle (directional breakout)
Buy $16.50 straddle 5/01
Max loss: $2.39
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 14.11/18.89
Trigger: Enter day before if IV hasn't spiked >75%
100% historical EPS beat rate suggests potential for larger move; kinked term structure indicates earnings volatility priced in.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30% (beyond $14.11-$18.89)
Underperforms: Stock pins near $16.50-$17.00, IV crushes post-earnings
Bull call spread (bullish bias)
Buy $16.00C / Sell $18.00C 5/01
Max loss: $0.85
Max gain: $1.15
BE: $16.85
Trigger: Enter on any dip below $16.00
Bullish flow (P/C vol 0.37) and pin magnets at $16.50/$17.00 support upside; defined risk vs long calls.
Outperforms: Stock rises to $18.00 or above
Underperforms: Stock stays below $16.85

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 11.0% EM (4/24) and 14.7% EM (5/01) — elevated but pinning may contain moves.
!IV crush likely post-earnings (estimate ~8-10 vol pts) — long premium strategies need >30% move to overcome.
!Liquidity: Moderate (3.55M OI, 272K volume) — stick to near-spot strikes for tighter spreads.
!Sizing: Use smaller size due to high IV and potential for outsized moves despite pinning.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into earnings (watch 5/01 expiry)
?Unusual OTM call activity (e.g., $24/$25 calls)
?Spot vs $17.00 pin magnet
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.