base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 strong pinning regime; +1 liquid underlying; -2 extreme volatility and large OI at distant strikes; -1 spot rise reduces buffer
Term structure: Humped, peaking around 36-45 DTE (IV ~88%).
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 5.5% (spot $23.22 vs MP $22.00)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$15.8M)
Gamma flip: ~$3.00 — Massive positive GEX indicates mean-reverting force. Gamma flip is far below at ~$3, suggesting pinning is the dominant regime near current price.
OI concentrations: Major Put: $3.00 (57,515 OI), $20.00 (30,522 OI). Major Call: $32.00 (53,911 OI), $24.00 (4,235 OI near spot).
#1put spread
Sell $20.00 / Buy $19.00 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-15 (43 DTE)
Sells into the massive $3.00 and $20.00 put OI gravity wells. High IV (87.6% for this expiry) provides good credit. Position is $3.22 below spot and well above the gamma flip, within the pinning regime. Max pain for this expiry is $32, but nearer-term pain is lower, supporting a range.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Roll down/out for a credit if spot closes below $21.00. Max loss is defined.
#2iron condor
Sell $20.00/$19.00 Put Spread & Sell $24.00/$25.00 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
Capitalizes on the pinning range between the $20.00 put wall and the $24.00/$25.00 call resistance (note high volume in $25c). 22 DTE offers faster theta decay. IV is high (76.9%). Defined risk on both sides. Expected move is ±$3.48, placing short strikes near its edges.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage leg-by-leg if one side is tested (roll untested side in). Exit entire position if spot breaches $19.50 or $24.75.
#3call credit spread
Sell $25.00 / Buy $25.50 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-10 (8 DTE)
Targets the high-volume call wall at $25.00 (36,112 volume, 4,740 OI). Spot is $1.78 below this level. High IV (67.3%) and positive GEX support resistance holding. Quick theta decay with 8 DTE. Use defined risk due to weekly expiration.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Exit if spot closes above $24.25.
#4cash-secured put
Sell $19.00 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (43 DTE)
For sellers willing to take assignment. Strike sits below major OI support ($20.00) and above deeper walls ($13.00, $5.00, $3.00). Collects massive premium (~10.5% of strike) due to 87.6% IV. High probability of expiring OTM given pinning forces and $4.22 buffer.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if put is tested (spot < $19.50). Be prepared to accept assignment below $19.00.
!Earnings estimated 2026-05-05 — Close all short premium positions before this announcement. Never hold naked options through earnings.
!Extreme OI at $3.00 Put (57,515) and $32.00 Call (53,911) — These are 'gamma anchors' that can cause violent, non-linear moves if spot approaches them.
!Net Premium Flow is negative (-$19.0M), driven by huge put buying at $70 — Indicates institutional hedging or bearish flow, a contrary signal to monitor.
!Unusual activity in deep OTM puts ($70p 5/15, $9p 4/24) with IV >179% — Suggests tail-risk hedging; be wary of volatility spikes.
!Spot has risen to $23.22, reducing buffer to call-side strikes. The $25.00 call is now within the 8-day expected move.
!Gamma flip is far below at ~$3 — While this supports pinning now, a break below this level could see accelerated selling as dealer hedging flips.