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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.63EOD only

Max Pain

$32.00

Next expiry Jul 2, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.45

8.0% from close

Price Gap

+1.37

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.75

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 26, 2026 close

SMCI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias short-term as gamma pinning at $32 and strong dealer support (+$11.1M GEX) should pull spot upward from $28.93; high vol favors a quick mean reversion to max pain. Medium-term cautious given downside gamma flip at ~$20 and mixed flow.

Confidence:

5 / 10

Base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning near $32), +1 VIX 18 aiding vol premium; -1 GEX/flow contradict (mixed flow), -1 spot 10.6% below MP.

Supports: Dealer long gamma ($11.1M GEX), max pain at $32, high vol environment.
Conflicts: Mixed flow (calls and puts), spot far below MP, gamma flip at $20.

📈GEX +$11.1M: Strong pinning support near $32.

⚠️Spot 10.6% below MP: Reversion potential but risk.

🔻Gamma flip ~$20: Severe downside if broken.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV relative to VIX, consistent with event-driven uncertainty and recent price swing.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime with positive GEX concentrated at $32, but gamma flip risk at $20.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium: calls and puts balanced, no strong directional conviction from flow alone.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ($28.93) is 10.6% below max pain ($32), suggesting upward drift over next week.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol, gamma pinning, and near-term expiry OI concentration point to a one-week event (earnings or binary catalyst).

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$25.86$30.44

Pin to max pain $32, support at $25.86.

Next 2 weeks

$23.65$32.64

Wider range $23.65-$32.64; gamma flip risk caps upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-07-02); $32 (2026-07-10); $35 (2026-07-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $25.86/$30.44

Support: $23.65

Resistance: $32.64

Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 28,395 (29.0% below spot)

Structural: Support $23.65 (2w low), resistance $32.64 (2w high). Gamma flip at $20 (put OI concentration). Max pain pins at $32 (Jul2,10,17).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+11.1M

DEX: +56.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$20 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 28,395 (29.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$11.1M (overall long gamma), DEX +56.9M shares. Major put concentration creates gamma flip near $20.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV is rich vs VIX (17.65) due to high vol regime, typical for earnings plays; elevated premium offers vol sellers opportunity on pinning.

Term structure: Steep contango with front-end elevated; Jul2 expiry shows highest IV due to event risk.

Skew: Put skew elevated >10% below spot; sell put spreads at $23.65 (2w support) to collect high premium with defined risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative net premium -$12.3M, put/call vol ratio 0.88 (more calls) but higher put premium suggests bearish flow, likely put buying dominates.

Directional prints: 97.1 put 28 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 20k vs OI 1.5k (13.8x) indicates new put positions; likely bought given net negative premium, bearish. 90.9 call 36 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol 8.5k vs OI 108 (79x) suggests aggressive call buying; if bought, bullish; preferred read is speculative buy.

Unusual: 96 call 29 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 11.5k vs OI 487 (23.6x) suggests new call buying; if bought, bullish; preferred read is bullish due to high volume. 115.2 put 25 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 13.5k vs OI 802 (16.8x) indicates new put buying; bearish tilt given net negative premium. 108.4 put 22 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol 2.4k vs OI 178 (13.5x) suggests put buying; bearish as downside protection or speculative.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gap risk from unexpected news (earnings or legal), can break pinning.

!Gamma flip if spot falls below $20—dealer hedging accelerates selloff.

!Mixed flow may limit upside; call resistance at $30.44 (2d high).

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00/$37.00 call spread Why now: Dealer support +$11.1M GEX, spot $28.93, expected drift to $32. Defined-risk with high vol.	Upside capped, gap risk from earnings if pin fails.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $24.00/$21.00 put spread Why now: Support $25 from dealer gamma, sell 25/24 spread to collect premium.	Max loss if spot < $24; tail risk from earnings miss.
Long call	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00 call Why now: High vol and gamma pinning support upward move.	Time decay and IV crush; total loss if stock stays flat.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00/$37.00 call spread

Buy $30/$37 call spread to capture upside to $32 with defined risk.

Why this play: Best risk-reward with dealer support and gamma pinning.

Debit: $1.64-$2.00

Max loss: $2.00

BE: $32.00

Mgmt: Exit if spot falls below $23.65 or near max profit before earnings.

Traders seeking limited risk bullish exposure.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $24.00/$21.00 put spread

Sell $24/$21 put spread to benefit from dealer gamma support.

Why this play: Collects premium with support at $25, defined risk.

Credit: $0.85-$1.03

Max loss: $1.97

BE: $22.97

Mgmt: Close if spot drops below $23.65 to avoid gamma flip.

Traders wanting income with neutral-bullish view.

Long Call

Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00 call

Buy $30 call to leverage bullish drift with high IV.

Why this play: Unlimited upside from high vol and pinning, but higher risk.

Debit: $3.11-$3.80

Max loss: $3.80

BE: $33.80

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $23.65 and take partial profits near $32.

Aggressive traders comfortable with premium decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $23.65 support and shows bullish reversal → Buy 2026-08-21 $30/$37 call spread at $1.64-$2.00

IFSpot tests $24-$25 support with gamma pinning intact → Sell 2026-08-21 $24/$21 put spread for $0.85-$1.03 credit

IFSpot breaks above $30 with momentum → Buy 2026-08-21 $30 call at $3.11-$3.80

Adjustment Triggers

ADJSpot reaches $32.64 resistance or $32 max pain → Take partial profits on bull call spread and close long call

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $23.65 invalidation level → Exit all bullish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias short-term with dealer support ($28.93 spot). Key levels: support $23.65, resistance $32.64. Preferred: bull call spread and put credit spread. Manage risk; exit on break below $23.65.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.