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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $35.46EOD only
Max Pain
$30.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.36
9.5% from close
Price Gap
-4.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
32
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
SMCI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish thesis through weekly expiry supported by strong dealer gamma pinning at $30, bullish flow, and spot above max pain. Confidence 7.5/10 due to GEX/flow alignment but tail risk from spot-MP distance.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -1 spot 9.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19.5
Supports: GEX +$67M, DEX +64.3M, bullish flow, spot above MP, pinning at $30
Conflicts: Spot 9.2% from MP, high vol regime, QQQ -3.29%
📌Spot $33.2 above max pain $30; strong dealer pinning
⚠️Spot 9.2% from MP; tail risk of gamma flip

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs VIX 19.5 amid high vol regime given QQQ drop -3.29%
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime with $+67M GEX, gamma flip ~$30 (10% below spot)
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium flow; strong GEX/flow alignment
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~$33 vs max pain $30; above MP implies bullish dealer bias
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly expiry pinning to $30 max pain and high gamma near flip

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$30.79$35.85
Holding above $33.5 resistance
Next 1 week
$29.58$37.06
Gamma support $30, resistance $34-35
Next 2 weeks
$28.39$38.25
Structural support $28.39, resistance $38.25

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $30 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02); $33 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $30.79/$35.85; 1w $29.58/$37.06
Support: $30.50 · $30.00 · $28.39
Resistance: $33.50 · $34.00 · $35.00
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,409 (10.0% below spot)
Structural: Support $30.5, $30, $28.39; Resistance $33.5, $34, $35; Gamma flip ~$30

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+67.0M

DEX: +64.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,409 (10.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$67M, DEX +64.3M shares; gamma flip near $30

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 19.5; elevated due to event risk and high vol regime

Term structure: Front-end high with event kink around weekly expirations

Skew: Call skew elevated; consider put spreads if bearish, but regime bullish

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net +$6.1M, P/C vol 0.52, bullish call dominance.

Directional prints: 92.3 call 34 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 8793 (2.4x OI), likely bought calls, bullish. 86.6 call 34.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 1110 (3.2x OI), new call buying, bullish. 89.1 call 36.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 1381 (3.9x OI), unusual call volume, bullish.

Unusual: 90 put 32.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 3447 (4.1x OI), deep OTM puts, possibly hedging or bearish. 84.3 put 32.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 459 (4.0x OI), unusual put activity, bearish bias. 84.4 put 33 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 1638 (3.0x OI), OTM puts, unusual, bearish if bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gap risk if spot breaks below $30 gamma flip
!Spot 9.2% from MP pin failure risk
!High vol regime amplifies moves

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $31.00/$36.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish flow and high call volumes suggest upside momentum
Gap risk if spot breaks below $30 gamma flip
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $31.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $26.00 put
Why now: Bullish thesis with defined risk via short put
Downside tail risk if stock breaks below short put strike

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread $31/$36
Buy 2026-08-21 $31.00/$36.00 call spread
Captures upside to $36 with limited outlay.
Why this play: Defined risk, aligns with bullish flow and gamma pin at $30.
Debit: $1.89-$2.31
Max loss: $2.31
BE: $33.31
Mgmt: Exit near expiry if near max gain; cut if spot drops below $30.
Traders seeking capped risk on bullish view.
#2
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-08-21 $31.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $26.00 put
Long $31 call / short $26 put for leveraged upside.
Why this play: Unlimited upside with defined downside via short put; higher conviction.
Debit: $4.02-$4.92
Max loss: $26.00
BE: $26.00
Mgmt: Close if spot approaches $30; roll put if threatened.
Aggressive traders with high confidence.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot holds above $30.5 support with bullish flow confirmation → THEN buy 2026-08-21 $31/$36 bull call spread for $1.89-$2.31
IFIF spot stays above $30.5 with bullish momentum → THEN enter bullish risk reversal: buy $31 call / sell $26 put for $4.02-$4.92
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot declines toward $30.0 support → THEN roll short put down or close risk reversal
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot breaks below $30.0 gamma flip → THEN exit bull call spread to limit loss

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias through weekly expiry; gamma pin at $30. Key levels: support $30.5, $30, $28.39; resistance $33.5, $34, $35. Top plays: bull call spread $31/$36 (rank 1) and bullish risk reversal (rank 2). Risk: break below $30 triggers selling.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.