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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.46EOD only
Max Pain
$32.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.91
9.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
80
High premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
SMCI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias due to pinning and flow support. Upside to $31.5 then $35.34.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow +1 GEX pinning +1 VIX 16 = 9.
Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, spot below max pain.
Conflicts: High vol, resistance at $31.5.
📈Dealer GEX +$50.3M, pinning upside.
⚠️Gamma flip at $30, break bearish.
📊Bullish flow net premium positive.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV due to event; IV > VIX.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning at $32 Jun18; dealer long gamma.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow; net premium positive.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below max pain $32; upside drift.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Jun18 expiry pinning drives near-term bias.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$28.59$33.11
Pinning to $32, range $28.59-$33.11.
Next 2 weeks
$26.36$35.34
Upside to $35.34 if resistance breaks.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-18); $34 (2026-06-26); $36 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $28.59/$33.11
Support: $30.00 · $26.36
Resistance: $31.50 · $35.34
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,526 (2.8% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $32/34/36; support $28.59/$26.36; resistance $31.5/$35.34; gamma flip $30.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+50.3M

DEX: +63.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,526 (2.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: +$50.3M GEX, +63.6M DEX; gamma flip near $30 (put OI).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 16.2; options price ~$4 move.

Term structure: Front-end elevated; Jun18 high gamma; back-end normal.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium of $4.74M; P/C vol ratio 0.29 signals strong bullish flow.

Directional prints: 83.7 call 34 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 5.5; aggressive call buying, likely bullish speculation. 82.6 call 31.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.4; opening call purchases, bullish positioning. 85.3 call 33 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.0; strong call volume, likely bought, bullish.

Unusual: 168.8 call 44.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Extreme IV 168.8%; 10k vol vs 4.5k OI; speculative OTM call. 121.1 call 20 ITM 2026-06-26 — Deep ITM call, high IV 121%; unusual size, possibly closing. 83.6 put 27.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 4.1; high put volume, likely hedging amid bullish tone.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $30 triggers selling.
!Earnings or macro disappointment.
!Vol collapse if pinning holds.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $31.00/$32.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish flow and pinning support upside; defined-risk limits decay.
Capped gain if stock exceeds short strike; max loss if below long strike.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $31.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $30.00 put
Why now: Net call premium and low put/call vol ratio favor bullish convexity.
Uncapped downside if stock breaks below short put strike.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-08-21 $30.00/$29.00 put spread
Why now: Strong call flow and pinning at 30 make put sale attractive; defined risk.
Max loss if stock closes below lower put at expiration.

Top Plays

#1
Bull call spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $31.00/$32.00 call spread
Defined-risk bullish play capitalizing on upward drift to $31-$32.
Why this play: Bullish flow and pinning support upside; defined-risk limits decay.
Debit: $0.38-$0.47
Max loss: $0.47
BE: $31.47
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if stock breaks below $30.
Traders seeking defined risk bullish exposure.
#2
Bullish risk reversal
Buy 2026-08-21 $31.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $30.00 put
Unlimited upside with short put financing, leveraging bullish flow.
Why this play: Net call premium and low put/call vol ratio favor bullish convexity but higher risk.
Debit: $0.59-$0.72
Max loss: $30.00
BE: $30.00
Mgmt: Manage delta; roll put if stock drops near $30.
Aggressive traders seeking convexity.
#3
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $30.00/$29.00 put spread
Income play from support at $30, with defined risk.
Why this play: Strong call flow makes put sale attractive but less directly bullish.
Credit: $0.43-$0.52
Max loss: $0.48
BE: $29.48
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if stock breaks below $30.
Income seekers with neutral-bullish view.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSMCI > $30 → Buy 31/32 call spread 0.38-0.47
IFSMCI > $30 → Buy 31C/sell 30P risk reversal 0.59-0.72
IFSMCI > $30 → Sell 30/29 put spread 0.43-0.52
Exit Triggers
EXITSMCI < $30 → Exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias. Support $30, resistance $31.5/$35.34. Invalidation $30. Top play: bull call spread. Alternatives: put credit spread or risk reversal.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.