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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.66EOD only

Max Pain

$30.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.85

9.3% from close

Price Gap

-0.16

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.67

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

SMCI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

SMCI maintains bullish regime with high vol, positive gamma pinning near $30, and bullish flow. Immediate upside bias toward $36-$40, but risk of gamma flip below $30. Confidence 8/10 supported by aligned GEX/flow and positive gamma, offset by spot distance from MP.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 16.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, elevated IV, pinning support at $30.
Conflicts: Spot far from MP (16.3% above), high vol implies event uncertainty, gamma flip risk if breaks $30.

📈GEX +$55.4M positive; dealers long gamma, providing support.

💹Bullish flow; net premium call-heavy, consistent with upside lean.

⚠️Spot 16.3% above MP $30; extended from mean, watch for mean reversion.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV at 85th percentile vs 1Y range; elevated ahead of 06/26 expiry.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$55.4M; positive gamma with flip near $30 (put OI concentration).

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium bullish; call-heavy flow suggests upside bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at $35.44 vs MP $30; 16.3% above, limited pin but gamma support below.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Consecutive weekly expiries (06/26, 07/02, 07/10) concentrate gamma and OI; event-driven dynamics dominate.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$30.84$40.07

Range $30.84-$40.07; gamma pin near $30 provides floor; breakout above $36 targets upper.

Next 2 weeks

$29.71$41.20

Range $29.71-$41.20; support at $29.71; resistance at $41.20; directional bias with gamma cushion.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $30 (2026-06-26); $30 (2026-07-02); $32 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $30.84/$40.07

Support: $29.71

Resistance: $41.20

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,025 (15.4% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $30 for 06/26, 07/02, 07/10; EM guardrails 1w $30.84/$40.07; support $29.71; resistance $41.20; gamma flip at $30 (put OI 20k contracts).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+55.4M

DEX: +66.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,025 (15.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$55.4M positive; DEX +66.5M shares; gamma flip near $30; dealers long gamma, likely hedging, providing stability near $30.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV vs VIX: SMCI IV elevated (implied vol ~85th percentile) relative to VIX 17.3, indicating event risk premium.

Term structure: Term structure: upward sloping from front-month to next, but event kinks near 07/10 expiry.

Skew: Skew: put premium elevated vs calls; potential put credit spread if bullish; vol arbitrage via calendar if IV gap persists.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium ~$91.8M with P/C vol ratio 0.14, extremely call-heavy flow.

Directional prints: 102.3 call 36 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 27.4k vs OI 2.3k (11.9x), massive call buying; likely aggressive bullish bet vs MM short; preferred read: bought. 104.3 call 37 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 13.1k vs OI 991 (13.2x), heavy call buying; likely directional upside speculation; preferred read: bought. 102.1 call 35.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 11.6k vs OI 698 (16.6x), strong call volume; likely bought for upside; preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 126.6 call 46.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 3.2k vs OI 148 (21.6x), extreme vol/OI on far OTM call; likely speculative buy vs MM write; preferred read: bought. 100.8 put 36 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 2.8k vs OI 203 (13.7x), elevated put activity; likely hedging or bearish bet; preferred read: bought. 99.4 put 34 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 4.9k vs OI 388 (12.7x), unusual put volume; likely protective or directional; preferred read: bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip risk if spot breaches $30

!Event-driven vol crush post expiry

!Gap risk on unexpected news

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $37.00/$43.00 call spread Why now: Captures upside with defined risk; expiration after earnings allows time for move.	Upside limited to spread width; time decay if move delayed; vol crush post earnings.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $37.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $31.00 put Why now: Finances upside call with short put; theta positive; suitable for high vol regime.	Short put exposes to downside below strike; unlimited upside on long call, but risk if spot drops sharply.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $37.00/$43.00 call spread

Buy $37/$43 call spread expiring Aug 21, net debit ~$1.80.

Why this play: Defined risk capture of upside to $43 with earnings catalyst.

Debit: $1.62-$1.98

Max loss: $1.98

BE: $38.98

Mgmt: Close at 50-100% profit or if SMCI breaks below $30 invalidation.

Traders seeking limited risk bullish exposure.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-08-21 $37.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $31.00 put

Buy $37 call, sell $31 put, net credit ~$1.80, unlimited upside.

Why this play: Zero-cost upside with short put financing, suitable for high vol.

Debit: $1.69-$2.06

Max loss: $31.00

BE: $31.00

Mgmt: Roll put if SMCI approaches $31, or close if momentum fails.

Aggressive traders comfortable with put assignment risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSMCI holds above $30 (gamma flip) for 2 consecutive closes → Buy Aug21 $37/$43 call spread at net debit ~$1.80

IFSMCI breaks above $37 resistance with volume → Buy Aug21 $37 call, sell $31 put for net credit ~$1.80

Exit Triggers

EXITSMCI closes below $29.71 support → Close Bull Call Spread (sell $37/$43 spread)

EXITSMCI closes below $29.71 support → Close Bullish Risk Reversal (buy $31 put, sell $37 call)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with high vol; key gamma flip at $30. Upside bias to $40+. Use Bull Call Spread (rank 1) for defined risk or Risk Reversal (rank 2) for zero-cost upside. Exit if SMCI breaks $29.71 support.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.