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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.66EOD only

Max Pain

$30.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.85

9.3% from close

Price Gap

-0.16

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.67

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

SMCI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias driven by positive flow and dealer pinning at $30 support; upside to $33.51 within week, $34.4 in two weeks if momentum holds.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +3 from strong GEX/flow alignment (+2), pinning (+1), and low VIX (+1) = 9

Supports: Bullish call flow, positive GEX +$105M, spot above max pain $30, gamma pin support
Conflicts: High IV/event risk, resistance at $33.51 EM guardrail, short-term event dependency

🎯Gamma pin at $30 support

📈Bullish flow dominates

⚠️High IV event risk

📊Resistance $33.51 key

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol due to elevated IV vs typical; event-driven (earnings/product).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning gamma: heavy put OI ~$30 (2.2% below spot) acts as magnet; dealers hedge delta.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium bullish: positive flows supported by call activity.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain ($30) ~7%; tilted bullish; gamma concentration below caps downside.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain dates 6/18,6/26,7/2 cluster; gamma flip at $30 suggests short-term pin.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$27.80$33.51

Range $27.80-$33.51; bias upward toward resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$26.92$34.40

Range $26.92-$34.40; momentum may extend beyond 1w.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $30 (2026-06-18); $30 (2026-06-26); $30 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 1w $27.80/$33.51

Support: $30.00 · $26.92

Resistance: $33.00 · $34.40

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,813 (2.2% below spot)

Structural: Support: 30.0 (gamma flip), 26.92; Resistance: 33.0, 34.4; EM guardrails 1w $27.80/$33.51.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+105.2M

DEX: +62.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,813 (2.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$105.2M, DEX +62.5M shares; gamma flip ~$30 (put OI 19,813 2.2% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX (16.4) due to event risk; puts expensive.

Term structure: Steep near event dates (Jun 18,26,Jul2) reflecting uncertainty; back month normalizes.

Skew: Put skew elevated; potential short put spread sale if pin holds.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Bullish $20.3M, call-heavy (P/C vol 0.37).

Directional prints: 75.1 call 31.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 11.3x high; OTM call; bought bullish or sold bearish; preferred bullish. 90.6 call 34 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 5.2x elevated; OTM call; bullish buy likely. 91.9 call 37 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 5.3x elevated; OTM call; bullish.

Unusual: 15.6 put 30.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 11.5x extreme; deep OTM put; sold premium or bought hedge; bearish read. 75.2 call 28.5 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 6.1x; OTM call; unusual high vol; bullish if bought. 88.3 put 24.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 5.6x; deep OTM put; likely sold premium; bearish skew.

Risks & Catalysts

!Failure of pin at $30

!Broader tech selloff

!Earnings miss

!Gamma collapse if spot breaks away

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $33.00/$42.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk upside capture with expiration after earnings aligns with bullish bias.	Capped upside; IV crush post-earnings if move muted.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $24.00/$20.00 put spread Why now: Positive carry from put credit spread with expiration after earnings.	Downside risk if support fails; defined max loss.
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-08-21 $41.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $24.00 put Why now: Leverage upside skew and positive flow with downside hedge.	Unlimited upside but short put obligates purchase if stock falls.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $33.00/$42.00 call spread

Defined-risk upside via $33/$42 call spread expiring post-earnings.

Why this play: Best alignment with bullish bias and earnings tail.

Debit: $1.98-$2.41

Max loss: $2.41

BE: $35.41

Mgmt: Target close near $42; stop loss at $30.

Moderate-risk bullish traders.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $24.00/$20.00 put spread

Sell $24/$20 put spread for credit; max gain above $24.

Why this play: Positive carry with defined risk, suits bullish outlook.

Credit: $0.81-$0.98

Max loss: $3.02

BE: $23.02

Mgmt: Close early if price approaches $24; monitor risk.

Conservative income seekers.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-08-21 $41.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $24.00 put

Buy $41 call, sell $24 put for near-zero cost; unlimited upside.

Why this play: Leverages flow and upside skew at low cost.

Debit: $0.22-$0.26

Max loss: $24.00

BE: $24.00

Mgmt: Monitor short put; roll out if $24 breaks.

Aggressive high-conviction traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF price breaks above $33 → THEN enter bull call spread: buy 2026-08-21 $33/$42 call spread

IFIF price holds above $30 support → THEN enter put credit spread: sell 2026-08-21 $24/$20 put spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF price breaks below $30 → THEN exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with key support at $30. Enter bull call spread on breakout above $33, or put credit spread if support holds. Exit all if $30 breaks. Targets $33.51 and $34.4.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.