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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $31.68EOD only

Max Pain

$31.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.31

4.2% from close

Price Gap

-0.68

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

SMCI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

SMCI bearish lean as spot below max pain with high IV and put OI concentration; gamma flip at $30 suggests downside risk.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5, -1 GEX/flow contradict, +1 GEX positive pinning, +0.5 spot near MP, +0.5 VIX 18.

Supports: VIX 18, gamma pinning at $31/$32, spot near MP.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, contradictory GEX/flow signals.

🔻Spot below max pain with heavy put OI at $30

⚖️Gamma pinning at $31/$32 may limit downside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV reflects elevated event risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma pinning near $31/$32 expiries; flip ~$30.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow with put OI concentration below spot.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain; pinning potential.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol, gamma pinning near weekly expiries suggest event-driven structure.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$28.18$33.08

Resistance at $31 max pain; support $30 first, then $28.18 EM.

Next 2 weeks

$26.83$34.42

Gamma flip at $30; support $26.83 if broken.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $31 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02); $33 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $28.18/$33.08

Support: $30.00 · $26.83

Resistance: $31.00 · $33.50 · $34.42

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,535 (2.1% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $31 (Jun26), $32 (Jul2), $33 (Jul10); EM guardrails 1w $28.18/$33.08; support $30/$26.83; resistance $31/$33.5/$34.42; gamma flip ~$30.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+46.6M

DEX: +59.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,535 (2.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$46.6M, DEX +59.3M; gamma flip ~$30 on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV is elevated relative to VIX, reflecting event-specific risk premium.

Term structure: Term structure likely backwardated near expiry; July expiry shows elevated vol.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider put spreads for downside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$12.4M, put premium exceeds call premium despite higher call volume, indicating bearish flow.

Directional prints: 107.8 put 21 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol/OI 67.6x, heavy put buying; bearish hedge or speculation. 73.2 call 31.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 13.8x, aggressive call buying; bullish. 74.8 call 34 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 12.1x, call buying; bullish.

Unusual: 107.8 put 21 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol/OI 67.6x, heavy put buying; bearish hedge or speculation. 73.2 call 31.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 13.8x, aggressive call buying; bullish. 74.8 call 34 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 12.1x, call buying; bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma squeeze on short covering

!Earnings or news event

!Market reversal

!Breakdown below gamma flip at $30

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $27.00/$24.00 put spread Why now: High IV and negative flow favor defined-risk bear play after earnings.	Earnings upside surprise could crush spread.
Put diagonal	Conditional	Sell 2026-07-31 $27.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $26.00 put Why now: Term structure steep; sell rich near-term vol, buy cheaper back-month protection.	IV expansion or sharp move up hurts short leg.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $27.00/$24.00 put spread

Buy $27/$24 put spread to capture downside into earnings with limited loss if wrong.

Why this play: Direct bearish play with defined risk, high IV favors buying puts, and flow supports downside.

Debit: $0.98-$1.19

Max loss: $1.19

BE: $25.81

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or at invalidation above $31.

Traders wanting defined risk bearish exposure before earnings.

Put Diagonal Calendar

Sell 2026-07-31 $27.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $26.00 put

Sell Jul 31 $27 put, buy Aug 21 $26 put to profit from time decay and volatility shift.

Why this play: Exploits steep term structure; sell near-term vol, buy back-month protection.

Debit: $0.49-$0.60

Max loss: $0.60

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Adjust if stock rallies above $30; close if short put tested early.

Traders expecting near-term vol crush but maintaining long-dated bearish view.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF SMCI stays below $30 and the $27/$24 put spread is offered within $0.98-$1.19 → THEN buy the bear put spread (smci_bear_put_spread_1)

IFIF SMCI remains below $30 and the put diagonal (sell Jul 31 $27 put / buy Aug 21 $26 put) is offered within $0.49-$0.60 → THEN initiate the put diagonal (smci_put_calendar_1)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF SMCI rallies above $31 → THEN exit all bearish positions (put spread and put diagonal)

Tactical Summary

SMCI bearish bias; spot below max pain $31 with gamma flip at $30. High IV favors put buying. Defined-risk bear spread and vol-advantage diagonal are top plays. Invalidation above $31.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.