thetaOwl
HomeOptionsSMCIReports

SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.46EOD only
Max Pain
$32.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.91
9.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
80
High premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
SMCI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with strong dealer support and gamma pinning near $32. Spot below MP but well-supported by GEX. Confidence 8.5, no override.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Strong aligned GEX/flow, pinning effect, positive gamma. Slight offset: spot below MP.
Supports: Positive GEX, bullish flow, max pain at $32.
Conflicts: Spot below MP, high IV.
📊GEX +$48.6M bullish pinning near $32
⚡Gamma flip at $30 key support
⚠️Vol high; IV rich vs VIX

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV reflects elevated uncertainty post-earnings and AI capex news.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning with strong positive GEX; flip at $30.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium with heavy call buying.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot 3.3% below MP ($32), bullish gap to fill.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — June options expiration and high gamma concentration.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$27.55$33.37
Pin to $32 MP; support $30 gamma flip
Next 2 weeks
$26.26$34.66
Extended to $34 resistance

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-12); $32 (2026-06-18); $34 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 1w $27.55/$33.37
Support: $30.00 · $26.26
Resistance: $31.50 · $34.66
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,180 (1.5% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pin $32 (Jun 12/18), $34 (Jun 26). Support $30 (gamma flip), $26.26. Resistance $31.5, $34.66.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+48.6M

DEX: +65.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,180 (1.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$48.6M bullish; DEX +65.6M shares. Gamma flip ~$30 from put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich vs VIX 17.68; ticker vol high post-guidance uncertainty.

Term structure: Short-term elevated, flattening into July; event kink at June expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated; sell puts at $30 support may be attractive.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $8.2M positive, P/C vol ratio 0.34, indicating strong bullish bias.

Directional prints: 21.9 call 31 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 28431 OI 5611, ratio 5.1. Likely bought; bullish OTM call buying. 15.6 call 30.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 18546 OI 3405, ratio 5.5. Bought; bullish view. 37.5 call 31.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 13862 OI 4561, ratio 3.0. Bought; bullish OTM calls.

Unusual: 86.7 put 30.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1906 OI 176, ratio 10.8. Unusual put; possible hedging. 229.7 call 28 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol 1121 OI 194, ratio 5.8. High IV; speculative call. 15.6 call 30.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 18546 OI 3405, ratio 5.5. Large call volume; institutional buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot divergence below $30 gamma flip
!IV crush if no catalyst materializes
!Bearish macro shift in AI/tech

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00/$42.00 call spread
Why now: Defined-risk upside capture using post-earnings expiry.
Max loss if stock stays below long strike.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $24.00 put
Why now: Positive flow and vol skew support bullish risk reversal.
Unlimited downside if stock gaps through short put strike.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-08-21 $25.00/$19.00 put spread
Why now: Strong dealer support and gamma pinning near $32 limit downside.
Max loss if stock breaks below short put strike.

Top Plays

#1
Buy $30/$42 Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00/$42.00 call spread
Captures upside to $42 using post-earnings expiry. Leverages bullish flow with minimal premium.
Why this play: Best defined-risk upside play. Strong flow and gamma support. Outranks due to limited loss and high probability.
Debit: $3.01-$3.67
Max loss: $3.67
BE: $33.67
Mgmt: Exit if spot < $30; partial profits at $38.
Traders seeking defined risk for earnings.
#2
Sell $25/$19 Put Spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $25.00/$19.00 put spread
Collects premium from bullish/neutral bias with strong support below $25.
Why this play: Exploits dealer support and gamma pinning. Safer high-probability income.
Credit: $1.44-$1.76
Max loss: $4.24
BE: $23.24
Mgmt: Monitor if spot near $25; roll down for credit.
Income-oriented traders expecting limited downside.
#3
Buy $30 Call / Sell $24 Put
Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $24.00 put
Expresses strong bullish conviction while financing call via put sale. High delta.
Why this play: Aggressive bullish play with unlimited upside but higher risk from put sold. Ranked lower due to larger loss potential.
Debit: $2.93-$3.58
Max loss: $24.00
BE: $24.00
Mgmt: Stop-loss if spot < $24; adjust put strike.
Aggressive traders comfortable with large loss.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSMCI holds above $30 support → Buy 2026-08-21 $30/$42 call spread
IFSMCI stays above $30 → Sell 2026-08-21 $25/$19 put spread
IFSMCI breaks above $31.5 → Buy 2026-08-21 $30 call / sell $24 put
Exit Triggers
EXITSMCI drops below $30 → Close all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with gamma pinning near $32. Use $30 as invalidation. Prefer bull call spread for defined risk; put credit spread for income; risk reversal for aggressive upside.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.