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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.46EOD only
Max Pain
$32.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.91
9.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
80
High premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
SMCI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

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You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer directional report is available for June 12, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish bias supported by strong GEX/flow alignment and positive dealer gamma pinning at $33. Spot below max pain but expected to drift higher toward resistance. High vol environment adds premium, but confidence is high.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; net 8.0.
Supports: GEX $+41.6M, bullish flow, gamma pin $33, call skew.
Conflicts: High vol regime, spot below MP, gamma flip at $30.
📈Flow is bullish; net call buying supports upside.
📌Gamma pin at $33 (max pain) encourages mean reversion up.
⚠️Gamma flip at $30; break below would destabilize dealers.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs typical range; VIX 19.44 implies rich premiums.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +$41.6M, positive gamma with pinning at $33; flip ~$30.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net call buying dominates; bullish premium flow.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~$32 below MP $33; potential drift up to pin.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Gamma pinning at $33 and nearby expiry (June 12) make this event-driven.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$30.27$33.67
Spot near upper bound; test $33 resistance.
Next 1 week
$28.43$35.51
Range expands; upside to $35 possible if catalyst.
Next 2 weeks
$27.01$36.93
Wider range; breakout above $35 or rejection at $33.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $33 (2026-06-12); $33 (2026-06-18); $35 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $30.27/$33.67; 1w $28.43/$35.51
Support: $30.00 · $27.01
Resistance: $33.00 · $35.00 · $36.93
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,122 (6.2% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $33 (Jun12/18/26); EM guardrails 2d $30.27/$33.67, 1w $28.43/$35.51; support $30 (gamma flip), $27; resistance $33, $35, $36.93.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+41.6M

DEX: +66.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,122 (6.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$41.6M, positive gamma; flip at $30. Dealers long gamma, pinning spot near $33.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX (19.44) — elevated premiums reflect high vol regime; attractive for selling strategies.

Term structure: Backwardated due to event risk; front-end inflated with June 12 expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spreads or short puts below $30 for premium capture.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium of $34.4M with P/C vol ratio 0.37, heavily bullish.

Directional prints: 94.5 call 30.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 29.9, aggressive buying; bullish bet on upside. 98 call 29.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 21.2, heavy call buying; near-term bullish.

Unusual: 89.8 put 29 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 7.8, OTM puts sold or hedged; low premium indicates selling. 117.2 put 27 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 6.9, deep OTM put with high IV; potential tail hedge. 89.5 call 31 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 7.1, massive volume 19466; likely bought, bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below gamma flip $30 triggers dealer hedging and sharp drop.
!Resistance at $33-35 may cap upside; failure to reclaim $33 weakens thesis.
!Vol crush post-event could reduce premium value.
!Macro selloff (SPY/QQQ) could override pinning dynamics.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $33.00/$35.00 call spread
Why now: Defined-risk upside capture with earnings follow-through.
Max loss limited to debit paid; upside capped at short strike.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-08-21 $30.00/$27.00 put spread
Why now: Bullish-neutral with high IV; premium collection with defined risk.
Loss if spot drops below short put strike minus credit.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $35.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $30.00 put
Why now: High call IV offers cheap upside; put premium funds trade.
Unlimited upside risk if put expires ITM; margin intensive.

Top Plays

#1
Earnings Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $33.00/$35.00 call spread
Captures upside to $35 with limited risk.
Why this play: Highest probability defined-risk bullish bet aligning with earnings upside.
Debit: $0.65-$0.80
Max loss: $0.80
BE: $33.80
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $30 or vol collapses.
Traders seeking high-conviction limited-risk bullish expression.
#2
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-08-21 $35.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $30.00 put
Buy call funded by selling put, zero cost if entry achieved.
Why this play: Unlimited upside potential with net credit; leverages high IV.
Debit: $0.07-$0.08
Max loss: $30.00
BE: $30.00
Mgmt: Roll put if spot nears $30; take profit on call at target.
Aggressive bullish traders comfortable with assignment risk.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $30.00/$27.00 put spread
Sells put spread below support, earns time decay.
Why this play: Bullish-neutral play to collect premium; less directional conviction.
Credit: $1.21-$1.48
Max loss: $1.52
BE: $28.52
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot breaks below $30.
Conservative traders seeking theta income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot price closes above $33.00 with volume > 150% of 20-day average and RSI>50 → Enter SMCI_BULL_CALL_1: buy 2026-08-21 $33/$35 call spread at $0.65-$0.80
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot holds $30-31 for 2 days and theta decay suggests 50% profit on SMCI_PUT_CREDIT_1 → Close SMCI_PUT_CREDIT_1 at 50% max gain
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot breaks below $30 (gamma flip) → Exit all bullish positions immediately: close SMCI_BULL_CALL_1, SMCI_RISK_REVERSAL_1, SMCI_PUT_CREDIT_1

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias ahead of earnings (Aug 4, 54d). Key support $30 (gamma flip), resistance $33-35. Entry on break above $33 via bull call spread preferred. Invalid if $30 lost. High IV supports premium selling but defined risk is safer.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.