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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $35.58EOD only
Max Pain
$31.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.83
8.0% from close
Price Gap
-4.58
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
28
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
SMCI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias near-term from positive dealer gamma, bullish flow, and spot above max pain; cautious on extended move from MP.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX pinning; -1 spot 19.7% above MP; +1 VIX 17
Supports: Bullish dealer flow, positive gamma, spot above MP, elevated VIX
Conflicts: Spot far from MP, high vol regime
📈GEX+92M: Strong dealer support, bullish.
🎯Spot 19.7% above $31 MP: Mean-reversion risk.
⚡VIX 17: Elevated vol environment.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high vs typical; consistent with VIX 17 and event risk.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive gamma pinning near $31 expiries; support level.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium; low P/C ratio.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain; upside bias.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly expirations on 5/29, 6/5, 6/12 create event risk.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$34.49$39.71
Upside within $34.49-$39.71, supported by gamma.
Next 1 week
$32.89$41.30
Test $41.30 resistance if momentum continues.
Next 2 weeks
$31.63$42.56
Potential to reach $42.56, but mean-reversion risk.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $31 (2026-05-29); $30 (2026-06-05); $30 (2026-06-12)
EM guardrails: 2d $34.49/$39.71; 1w $32.89/$41.30
Support: $31.63
Resistance: $38.50 · $40.00 · $42.56
Structural: Support $31.63; resistance $38.5-$42.56; max pain pins $31 (5/29), $30 (6/5,6/12).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+92.0M

DEX: +64.2M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Net long gamma +$92M, no flip nearby; bullish dealer posture.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX 17, typical for high vol regime.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to weekly expiries; contango thereafter.

Skew: Put skew rich; selling puts at support for premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $42.5M, P/C vol ratio 0.23, strong bullish flow.

Directional prints: 91.8 call 40.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 16.1, high new call activity; likely bought as bullish bet. 83.8 call 37.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 4.4, large volume vs OI; bought calls, bullish. 85.2 call 40 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 3.6, heavy volume; opening bullish positions.

Unusual: 86.5 call 49 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 23.1, extreme ratio; speculative upside buy. 83.2 put 36 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 14.9, unusual put buying in bullish flow; hedge or wager. 118 call 48 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 6.1, high IV; lottery-style OTM calls.

Risks & Catalysts

!Mean reversion to max pain $31.
!Broader tech selloff
!Event risk from earnings
!High vol amplifying moves

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-12 $32.50/$31.50 put spread
Why now: High put IV, defined-risk premium sale.
Gap down below short put.
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-18 $37.00/$43.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish flow into calls; spread reduces cost.
Underlying fails to rally.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $41.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $29.00 put
Why now: Low put vol, bullish flow; risk reversal for upside exposure.
Sharp drop leads to assignment on short put.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $37.00/$43.00 call spread
Buy $37/$43 call spread expiring June 18 to capture upside momentum from positive dealer gamma and bullish prints.
Why this play: Directly leverages bullish flow and near-term bias with defined risk and lower cost.
Debit: $1.74-$2.12
Max loss: $2.12
BE: $39.12
Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $31.63; take profit at 50-75% of max gain.
Traders seeking defined-risk bullish exposure aligned with current flow.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-12 $32.50/$31.50 put spread
Sell June 12 $32.50/$31.50 put spread to collect premium while maintaining bullish stance.
Why this play: Capitalizes on elevated put IV and defined risk, suitable for bullish outlook with downside buffer.
Credit: $0.19-$0.23
Max loss: $0.77
BE: $32.27
Mgmt: Close if spot drops to $31.63; aim for 50% of max credit.
Traders comfortable selling premium with defined risk, expecting spot to stay above $32.50.
#3
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-08-21 $41.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $29.00 put
Buy $41 call and sell $29 put expiring Aug 21 to fund upside while accepting potential assignment risk.
Why this play: Provides upside exposure with unlimited gain potential, but longer duration and higher risk from put sale.
Debit: $2.28-$2.79
Max loss: $29.00
BE: $29.00
Mgmt: Monitor closely; close put side if spot nears $29; take profit on call if IV expands.
Aggressive traders with strong bullish conviction and ability to hold through earnings.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot holds above $32.50 for 2 consecutive days → Sell Jun12 $32.50/$31.50 put spread (smci_pcs_01)
IFSpot breaks above $38.5 on above-average volume → Buy Jun18 $37/$43 call spread (smci_bcs_02)
IFSpot pulls back to $32.50 and forms bullish reversal candle → Buy Aug21 $41 call / sell $29 put risk reversal (smci_rr_03)
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot closes below $31.63 (invalidation level) → Close all bullish positions (smci_pcs_01, smci_bcs_02, smci_rr_03)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias from positive dealer gamma and flow. Key support $31.63, resistance $38.5-$42.56. Prefer defined-risk strategies (put credit spread, bull call spread) while spot above $32.50. Aggressive traders may use risk reversal on pullback. Exit below $31.63.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.