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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $35.58EOD only

Max Pain

$31.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.83

8.0% from close

Price Gap

-4.58

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

SMCI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with upside magnet to $24. Confidence: 6/10. GEX +$31.1M pins near $23.50-$25.00, but net premium -$26.6M and mixed flow signal caution. Spot at $22.05 aligns with near-term max pain $22.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.2% from MP; -1 GEX/flow contradict (net premium negative vs GEX positive).

Supports: GEX +$31.1M concentrated at $23.50-$25.00; spot at max pain $22; put OI floor $20.
Conflicts: Net premium -$26.6M suggests bearish flow; IV 89.7% is extremely high.

📊GEX pinning strongest at $23.50 (+$12.5M) and $24.00 (+$8.2M).

⚠️Net premium -$26.6M contradicts GEX pinning.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 89.7% — extremely high, favoring premium selling.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$31.1M concentrated near spot, creating pinning behavior.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem -$26.6M with P/C vol 0.83 — mixed flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $22.05, exactly at 4/10 max pain $22.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward ($22 → $25 over 15 expirations), GEX sign stable positive, flow regime consistent across expirations.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$18.84$25.26

Pin dominates; <$20 gamma flip invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $22 (2026-04-10); $24 (2026-04-17); $23 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails:

Support: $22.00 · $21.00 · $20.00

Resistance: $23.50 · $24.00 · $25.00

Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,492 (9.3% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $24-$32 caps upside; put floor $13-$20 provides distant support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+31.1M

DEX: +60.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$20 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,492 (9.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated at $23.50/$24.00/$25.00. If spot moves +2% to $22.49, dealers hedge by buying; if -2% to $21.61, hedging slows decline.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 89.7% — extremely high; no VIX comparison provided.

Term structure: Humped — 5/8 91.2% > 4/10 80.2% > 4/17 77.9%.

Skew: 4/10 IV 80.2% vs 4/17 IV 77.9% → 2.3 vol-pt differential for calendar spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$26.6M bearish; P/C vol 0.83.

Directional prints: put 10 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol 10,021 vs OI 175 (57.3x) — likely long-term hedge or speculation. put 19 OTM 2026-04-17 — Vol 10,166 vs OI 2,827 (3.6x) — could be bought for protection or sold for premium.

Unusual: 259.7 put 70 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol 3,550 vs OI 800 (4.4x) IV 259.7% — extreme premium sale or tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $20 breaks pin and accelerates downside.

!IV 89.7% risks vol crush on range-bound moves.

!Earnings on 2026-05-05 adds event risk.

!Net premium -$26.6M suggests underlying bearish pressure.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $22.05.	High IV and negative flow pressure.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — GEX positive pinning opposes.	GEX pinning creates upward magnet.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy shares, sell $24.00 call 4/17.	Spot rises above $24.00 caps gains.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $22.00/$20.00 put spread 4/17.	Break below $20 gamma flip.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $23.50 call 4/17.	High IV and pinning limit upside.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate	Buy $22.00/$20.00 put spread 4/17.	GEX pinning resists downside.
Iron condor	Moderate	$20.00/$18.00P x $24.00/$25.00C 4/17.	VIX not provided, but GEX positive and IV high → Moderate per thresholds.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 $23.50 call (IV 79.9%), buy 4/17 $23.50 call (IV 77.9%) — regular calendar.	Pin moves away from $23.50.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027-03-19 $20.00 call, sell 4/17 $24.00 call.	Long-dated IV 80.2% is high.

Top Plays

Covered Call

Buy shares at $22.05, sell $24.00 call 4/17 for ~$0.48 credit.

Capitalizes on high IV and pinning toward $24.00.

Credit: $0.46-$0.50

Max loss: $21.57

BE: $21.57

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% credit; roll if spot approaches $24.00.

Shareholders or those willing to own stock.

Put Spread

Sell $22.00/$20.00 put spread 4/17 for ~$0.67 credit.

Defined-risk premium sale below spot with gamma flip at $20 as stop.

Credit: $0.65-$0.72

Max loss: $1.33

BE: $21.33

Mgmt: Close at 60% max profit; exit if spot breaks $20.

Defined-risk traders betting pin holds.

Regular Calendar

Sell 4/10 $23.50 call, buy 4/17 $23.50 call for ~$0.03 debit.

Sells higher IV (79.9%) near-term, buys lower IV (77.9%) farther out — +2.0 vol-pt edge.

Debit: $0.02-$0.04

Max loss: $0.04

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Hold through 4/10 expiry; exit if spot moves >±5% from $23.50.

Vol traders expecting pin at $23.50 with multi-week thesis.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $22.00 for 2 hours → Sell $22.00/$20.00 put spread 4/17.

IFIV term structure steepens (5/8 IV > 95%) → Sell 5/8 $25.00 call, buy 6/18 $25.00 call — regular calendar.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks below $20.00 → Exit all short premium positions.

EXITIV drops below 70% → Take profit on calendar spreads.

Tactical Summary

Neutral with upside pin to $24.00, invalidated below $20 gamma flip. Regime favors selling premium due to high IV and positive GEX. Top plays: covered call for shareholders, put spread for defined risk, calendar for vol edge. Choose based on risk tolerance and existing positions.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.