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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $187.50EOD only
Max Pain
$165.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.88
3.7% from close
Price Gap
-22.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
25
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 22, 2026 close
ORCL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence bearish-to-neutral pinning setup: strong call-side flow concentrated near $170-$190 with pinning to $165-$175 into short-dated expiries; historical beat rate 75% offers tailwind but market positioning and net premium favor limited upside.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Large short-dated call and put prints around $170-$182 with net premium and GEX aligned toward pinning at ~$165-$175.
📌Pinning cluster: heavy 4/24 calls and 4/24 puts concentrate gamma near $170–182
⚖️Historical beat rate 75% but flow/net premium limit upside extension

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-10 (48 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (1d): ±$4.89 (2.8%)
  • 2026-05-01 (8d): ±$12.35 (7.0%)
  • 2026-05-08 (15d): ±$16.38 (9.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-dated IV elevated (~48–62%) with longer-dated skew higher (77% at deep puts)

Crush estimate: ~30–45% IV drop front-week post-event (largest on 4/24 expiries)

Skew: Put skew steep at low strikes; call concentration near $170–190 creates asymmetric risk around pinning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves modestly exceed model on beats; market expects ~±2.8% (1d) vs realized larger tail moves in some quarters

Directional bias: Slightly bullish fundamental beat tilt (75% beat) but flow/regime induces neutral-to-limited-upside pinning.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $171.38/$181.17; 1w $163.93/$188.63
2Max pain pins: $165 (2026-04-24); $160 (2026-05-01); $165 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Very large front-week call prints (4/24 $182.5, $177.5) and heavy $175–170 put OI

Short-dated call volume + put OI suggests pinning pressure into expiry.

Net premium positive and low put/call volume ratio (~0.69)

Dealer positioning favors call-heavy resistance and gamma that supports pinning.

Strategies

Back-month iron condor (wide wings)
Sell 2026-06-18 $155.00/$120.00 put wing and $210.00/$240.00 call wing
Credit: $8.61-$10.53
Max loss: $24.47
Max gain: $10.53
BE: 144.47 / 220.53
Trigger: Close or roll if price trades into $165–$175 or front IV collapses >30%.
Collect rich back-month premium to profit from pinning while avoiding front-week IV crush.
Outperforms: Sell 6/18 iron-condor wings well outside pin band to harvest premium with defined risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal (sell short, buy back-month)
Sell 2026-05-15 $200.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $195.00 call
Debit: $6.68-$8.17
Max loss: $8.17
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close the short if stock rises above $165 or on a sharp pin toward $170–$182.
Exploits front-vs-back term structure to monetize short-dated calls while retaining upside exposure.
Outperforms: Sell 5/15 short call and buy 6/18 long call to capture premium decay and tail upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Front-week short strangle
Sell 2026-05-08 $167.50 put + sell $192.50 call
Credit: $6.53-$7.98
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $7.98
BE: 159.52 / 200.48
Trigger: Use delta/vega hedges or close pre-event; tighten if IV skews shift or price nears wings.
Highest immediate premium but largest tail risk from post-earnings move and crush.
Outperforms: Sell 5/8 short put and call to capitalize on elevated front IV; unmanaged losses unlimited.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Front-week IV collapse risk large—rapid repricing possible
!Pinning may concentrate realized move around short-dated strikes
!Deep-put tail IV signals asymmetric downside tail risk

What to Watch

?4/24 front-week flow and P&L pinning around $165–175
?IV moves on 4/24 expiries vs 5/1 and 5/8 term points
?Unusual prints filling vs resting OI at $170–182
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.